Who will win the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series championship? Depends on what you believe

All four contenders for the NASCAR Championship on Sunday have something slightly different going for them.

There’s been a lot of talk about who the favorite might be for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Joey Logano, perhaps jokingly, named himself the favorite. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. both begged to differ. Kevin Harvick didn’t say much of anything as he was concentrating on just making it to Miami, but he expects to be racing to win.

The truth is that there’s not a whole lot separating the final four contenders prior to the drop of the green flag for the Ford EcoBoost 400. Busch and Harvick each won eight times on the road to the championship race, the first time two drivers have pulled that off in a decade. Everyone but Logano has won a title before, and all of them did it at least once by winning the very race they’re about to run on Sunday. All but Truex drive for one of the top three current teams in NASCAR, and all he’s he defending champ.

So when there’s not much to pick from when trying to predict who will win at Homestead, where do we turn? How about belief? Not the self-confidence for the drivers and their crews to think they can go out and get it done, though that’s of course very important. Instead, we’re talking about what you, the fan believes is most important once the race begins.

All you have to do is pick the narrative you trust the most and you’ll have your favorite.

If you believe in … momentum: Kyle Busch

Ask someone how much momentum matters and you’re likely anything from “not at all” to “it’s critical.” NASCAR complicates the question because the “playing field” changes from week to week with different tracks.

Still, it definitely doesn’t hurt to have won the final race before the championship showdown, and that’s what Busch did at Phoenix. Rowdy is tough to beat when he feels good about his car, which you have to imagine he does after his team helped get him to Victory Lane a week ago.

If you believe in … paybacks and/or sentimentality: Martin Truex Jr.

Truex owes Logano one after they tangled at Martinsville. That’s a side of the 2017 champ we don’t see too often, but he’s definitely going to have it ready to summon if necessary at Homestead.

But even if revenge isn’t on the menu for Truex, he’s going to be someone plenty of people are pulling for, because his Furniture Row Racing team is closing up shop as soon as the Ford EcoBoost 400 ends. Winning another championship to end this era would be a great story.

If you believe in … doing whatever it takes to win: Joey Logano

This is an easy one. Logano did everything but wreck Truex a few weeks ago to punch his ticket to the Championship 4. He’s been unapologetic since, essentially usurping the black hat role generally played by Busch.

If he wasn’t busy telling everyone he’s the favorite, he’d more likely be the underdog since he’s never won a Cup Series crown before. Of course, with that in mind, you have to imagine he’d bump more than one car out of the way if that goal is within reach with the laps winding down.

If you believe in … dominance: Kevin Harvick

All of the final four won multiple races during the season, but Harvick was the one who tended to blow away everyone else when he took a checkered flag. His average margin of victory was the largest, and he also had the most times when a viewer would simply watch him and say, “man, no one is catching him today.”

Harvick also drives for Stewart-Haas Racing, which was unquestionably the top team in NASCAR in 2018. Even without suspended crew chief Rodney Childers, if Homestead comes down to whose best is better than everyone else’s, it’s most likely going to be Harvick who fits that description.