DraftKings NBA Picks November 19: Embiid or A.D.?

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 11: Trey Burke #23 of the New York Knicks calls a play during the game against Orlando Magic at Madison Square Garden on November 11, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Picks November 19: Embiid or A.D.?

We have a nice sized nine game DraftKings NBA slate on our Monday to kick off Turkey week. Wednesday and Friday are going to be big NBA days as well with everyone off on Thursday. Westbrook is still out, and Oladipo could be held out again, so there are bargains out there.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Jrue Holiday ($8,700): Holiday is solid if unspectacular. That may chase some away in GPP formats, but it shoudn’t. Holiday has a lot of upside as the primary ballhandler in an up tempo offense. Holiday has at least eight assists in every game Payton has missed. I trust Holiday a lot more than a banged up Oladipo and Utah, Kemba against Boston, and Ben Simmons.

Kyrie Irving ($8,400): Irving’s numbers haven’t been all that great this year, but he showed what he is capable of against Toronto on Friday. That kind of upside means Irving is always worth a look in this price range. Charlotte isn’t a great defensive team. The only question here is whether Boston will attack this Charlotte defense another way.

Honorable Mention:

Dennis Schroder ($8,100): It seems as though the Thunder have this whole playing without Russ thing figured out. Too bad he is about ready to come back. Then there will be another adjustment period, and it will take a while for Schroder’s price to fall back to the range where we can use him again. So, this is basically the last time we can use Schroder for a couple of weeks. Schroder has feasted against below average point guard defenses. Sacramento is that.

Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): Bledsoe put up exactly 5x value (34.5 DraftKings points) in the first meeting with Denver eight days ago. That is part of Bledsoe’s streak of six games with at least 34 DraftKings points. Bledsoe is great for cash games because he is certain to get you 5x value tonight. I don’t know if he has 6x upside, but you need a couple of sure things in a GPP lineup as well. Bledsoe is one of those.

De’Aaron Fox ($6,100): The price looks too low on Fox. First off, he played 41 minutes and racked up 46 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Thunder. The poor game against Houston is understandable. Prior to that, Fox had at least 37 DraftKings points in four straight. The pricing seems off. Fox should hit 6x value with ease with the potential for more.

Dark Horses:

Collin Sexton ($5,100): Sexton may be better left for cash games at the moment since he hasn’t really had a game where we can say that he’s arrived. Sexton is the starter and is playing starters minutes, but he still hasn’t eclipsed 6x value for this price. Until Sexton flashes some upside instead of just consistency, I don’t think he’s quite the best option for GPP formats.

Jeremy Lin ($4,200): Does Linsanity still apply even when he doesn’t start? The awful past few games for Trae Young have opened the door for Lin, and he has taken full advantage. Young is going to see more minutes still, but Lin has 83 DraftKings points over the last three games. He’s giving Monte Morris a run for his money as the favorite value guard.

Patty Mills ($3,900): Mills has picked it up lately, putting up 49.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. If Gay or Aldridge sit, look for Mills to play at least 25 minutes or more in this one. That makes him worth a look for a very low price.

My pick: Bledsoe(PG); Lin(PG)

PHOENIX, AZ – NOVEMBER 08: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns handles the ball during the NBA game against the Boston Celtics at Talking Stick Resort Arena on November 8, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Celtics defeated the Suns 116-109 in overtime. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Devin Booker ($7,700): Booker has only made 10 of 30 shots from the floor over the last two games, but he has still eclipsed 5x value with relative ease because he picked up four rebounds in 12 assists in each of those games. Booker has huge upside because when he is on, he racks up points in a hurry. If he can keep the peripheral numbers up when the shot starts falling, Booker is going to have a huge game. It’s only a matter of time.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,300): It seems that all I needed to do was to trade for Mitchell in my 20 team league. He has responded with 93.25 DraftKings points in the last two games. You’re welcome! I don’t know if I was actually involved or not, but Mitchell has about a two game window to where he is seriously going to outperform his price. This is one of those games.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams ($6,200): Williams is a bench guy in name only. He still plays at least 28 minutes per game and still shoots 15 times or more. The sheer volume always has Williams in play, but I really take notice when he plays a horrid defensive team like the Hawks. LouWill is capable of monster games. This could be one of them.

Gary Harris ($6,100): Harris could finally be shaking off that slow start. He has 75.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, and played a staggering 39 minutes against the Pelicans. If Harris continues to shoot like he is, the minutes will be there. That gives Harris good value at this price range, and upside worthy of GPP usage.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lamb ($5,100): Lamb has played so well lately that I’m actually considering him as an option against Boston. Lamb has 78 DraftKings points over the last two games and has only been under 5x value at this price once in the month of November. This kind of production has me targeting Lamb even against the Celtics.

Garrett Temple ($4,300): Temple continues to see good run for the Grizzlies, and is making the most of his court time. Only Utah has held Temple under 5x value over the last five games. All of the rest have been 23 or more DraftKings points. Until Temple cools off, he is a very worthy value play.

David Nwaba ($3,500): With Hood and Osman struggling, the Cavs have started to look elsewhere for production. Nwaba has responded with 57 DraftKings points over the last two games. I would be shocked if Cleveland turned away from Nwaba now with him playing the way he is. Nwaba may not be that under the radar anymore, but he can free up a ton of salary with very high upside.

My pick: Mitchell(SG), Nwaba(G); Lamb(SG), Temple(G), Nwaba(UTIL)

CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 01: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder watches on against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on November 1, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($10,400): This is the first five digit salary on George since he left Indiana. George has earned it though, putting up an impressive streak of five games over 50 DraftKings points. He has been the leader of the Thunder with Westbrook out, and will get one more night as the heart of this team. I would much rather pay for George than Giannis, who has only hit value once in the last eight games.

DeMar DeRozan ($9,100): DeRozan has played better lately, and is becoming comfortable as the man in San Antonio. The Pelicans should up the tempo in this one, but it didn’t help DeRozan in the first meeting. He only had 34.75 DraftKings points in the first game with the Pelicans. However, if the Spurs rest some other starters, DeRozan could be well worth the price. Keep an eye on that.

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($6,400): Warren has hit double digit shots in three straight games, and has at least 34 DraftKings points in five straight games. The best part for the Suns is that they are still not winning! They can showcase Warren and his hot streak while not jeopardizing their draft position. Yes, they are living the NBA dream Sixers style right now.

Harrison Barnes ($5,500): It took Barnes a bit to get into the swing of things, but he is in midseason form right now. Barnes has 102.25 DraftKings points over his last three games. All of the limitations are off, so Barnes can just get back to putting up solid lines. Another one is in store against Memphis tonight.

Rudy Gay ($5,300): Gay stands out as one of the likely candidates to be rested. If he isn’t I do like Gay quite a bit here. He has 91 DraftKings points over the last three games. Despite starting against the Warriors on Sunday, Gay didn’t really see an uptick in minutes or production. What that means is that Gay is very solid right now. Of course, the first game against the Pelicans was a bust, but he played just 19 minutes. There shouldn’t be a repeat of that tonight.

Dark Horses:

Juancho Hernangomez ($4,800): Juancho has back to back games of over 40 DraftKings points. He has claimed the starting SF job for Denver, and seems to have a stranglehold on it right now. Hernangomez is going to be 50% owned or more tonight, but there is no way I’m bailing on this train right now.

Kyle Anderson ($4,600): Anderson continues to be a favorite bargain play, but he isn’t seeing the shot volume that he was a couple of weeks ago. That worries me some. Anderson is still hitting value most of the time, but the issue here is that Anderson has very little upside if he isn’t involved in the offense. It’s the same situation at Monte Morris in Denver when he started instead of coming off the bench. Morris, like Anderson, isn’t good enough to be a top three option with the first team offense. I still like Morris as a value pick in this range though with a price tag $500 lower.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,600): Come on, this is a gimme. The dude’s initials are DFS! Kidding aside, Finney-Smith is an excellent value pick if Wes Matthews is out again. If Matthews returns, I’m not sure I trust the production enough. That said, DFS has at least 20 DraftKings points in five of seven games even when he was coming off the bench. There is solid potential here no matter what.

My pick: Warren(SF), Hernangomez(F), Barnes(UTIL); George(SF), Hernangomez(F), Warren(PF)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans reacts during a game against the Sacramento Kings at the Smoothie King Center on October 19, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,600): Davis has four straight games of more than 60 DraftKings points and has seven straight over 58. While the Spurs do offer some tough competition, I’m not sure I would fade Davis here. It seems like a big risk, and there is so much value on this slate that I don’t see a reason to move off of Davis. He “only” had 44 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Spurs. However, with the way Davis is playing right now, I’m using him as long as it doesn’t compromise my favorite core.

Blake Griffin ($10,100): Blake annihilated the Toronto front on Wednesday (yes, that was the last time Detroit played), but I think this is a case of overpricing. The Cavs are weak up front with Love out, and Blake did put up 47 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but with Griffin needing 50.5 DraftKings points to hit value at this price, I think I’m bowing out of this one. Griffin hasn’t reached that total in two weeks. There are better options that have the same upside.

Honorable Mention:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,000): Aldridge put up 47 DraftKings points on the Pelicans the first time around. The pace up helped him where it hurt DeRozan last time, and I kind of expect that to be the case again. Unless Pop throws a wrench in this and rests people. If LMA is in there, I’m playing him for $2,100 less than Griffin and about the same output.

Tobias Harris ($7,800): Harris has at least 30 DraftKings points in every November game. While 30 would be fall short of where we want him right now, we get a feeling for what the floor is. The upside seems to be about 43 DraftKings points, so I think we can be pretty happy with with the range Harris has, but the lack of significant upside hurts him with other strong options available.

Nikola Mirotic ($7,100): On paper, this is not a great matchup. Well, the Pelicans run so fast they start paper on fire. Mirotic put up 46 DraftKings points on the Spurs in the first meeting. There really is no reason that he can’t do it again.

Dark Horses:

Montrezl Harrell ($6,600): I realize that this isn’t really a value price, but the bottom tier of power forwards is pretty weak. You are going to have to pay up here in one way or another. Harrell is pretty much in the same vein as Randle, but unlike Randle, Harrell is one of the bigger parts of the Clippers offense whether he runs with the first or second unit. Harrell has been over 30 DraftKings points in give straight and six of the last seven. He is pretty safe, and has great upside against Atlanta.

Paul Millsap ($6,100): In what has become the hallmark of Millsap in Denver, he disappeared against the Pelicans after dominating Atlanta. Millsap has followed a game on game off pattern for much of the season. If he holds true to that, Millsap is going to abuse the Bucks tonight like he did four games ago. He put up 50.5 DraftKings points in that one, so the potential is definitely there.

Mike Muscala ($3,900): The Wilson Chandler experiment has been set aside for now, mostly thanks to the strong play of Muscala off the bench. Muscala started on Saturday and picked up 20 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. The peripheral numbers are good, but Muscala’s upside is limited since he is about the sixth offensive option on the team despite only five being on the floor at a time.

My pick: Aldridge(PF); N/A

ATLANTA, GA – NOVEMBER 09: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts after a basket against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on November 9, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($11,100): I wouldn’t worry about the questionable designation. Embiid torched Charlotte for 57.75 DraftKings points on Saturday, so the hand obviously isn’t really bothering him. Embiid could really dominate the Suns up front with a rookie playing center, so expect another big game here. If anything, Butler’s arrival has helped Embiid’s output.

Andre Drummond ($9,700): Drummond racked up 54.5 DraftKings points on Cleveland in the first meeting. For the most part, he and Griffin can coexist, but if you are only paying up for one, Drummond has the higher floor due to his great rebounding. Any offense is just a plus, but there has been a lot of it for Drummond so far this year.

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Honorable Mention:

Marc Gasol ($7,600): Gasol has three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points, including a huge 59.25 DraftKings point effort last night. I would keep an eye on this in case Memphis decides to rest Gasol, but right now, that doesn’t seem likely. Ride this hot streak.

Steven Adams ($7,500): Adams has between 35 and 42 DraftKings points in every game with Russ out this time around. Adams is free to clean the glass on his own and routinely hits double digit points, so Adams is a high floor guy, albeit with a limited ceiling.

Deandre Ayton ($6,500): The upside is there for Ayton, especially with his shot attempts going up and his minutes staying in the mid 30’s. The rookie is still finding his way in the league a bit, but Ayton has at least 30 DraftKings points in nine of the last 11 games. Embiid doens’t really defend, so Ayton’s offensive prowess should shine through here.

Dark Horses:

Larry Nance ($5,700): Nance has finally stepped up with Love out. Over the last three games, Nance has 94 DraftKings points. That makes him a good value pick, though I do have some misgivings about him taking on the massive Detroit frontcourt. Nance did pick up 32 DraftKings points on Detroit in the first meeting, so the potential is there.

Myles Turner ($4,700): Surprisingly, Utah has not defended the interior very well this season. After a slow start, Turner is finally starting to come around. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in each of the last two games and at least 5x value in the last four. There is more risk involved here than in most value plays since Turner is usually pretty inconsistent, but the ownership should be low enough to get you some separation if he keeps performing like he is now.

Dewayne Dedmon ($4,000): Dedmon’s upside is limited because the Hawks aren’t really going to play him more than 25 minutes per game. That limits the upside of both he and Len, but with Dedmon still coming at a discount due to coming off of injury, he has far greater value potential.

My pick: Adams(C); Embiid(C)

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