Fantasy Basketball Picks – Game by Game NBA DFS Breakdown – November 19

Welcome into Fantasy Basketball Picks an NBA DFS article for November 19th where we break down the top plays game by game. We have a nine game slate in front of us so let’s get rolling!

There’s a ton of games tonight and we already have some injury news that could have a big effect on the slate. As is the case with the NBA especially, make sure you keep tuned into what happens during the day and sometimes even after lock. There’s some stud players in some really fun spots and some nice values so let’s five into the top Fantasy Basketball Picks for tonight’s action.

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Cavaliers at Pistons

Pace Ranks – Cavs at 25th, Pistons at 13th

Cavs Breakdown

Cleveland doesn’t have an overwhelming amount to look at in this game in my opinion. There are a couple of spots and the first one is rookie point guard Collin Sexton. Since George Hill has been out, Sexton hasn’t played under 33 minutes so even at his 0.77 FPPM mark, he’s viable since the Pistons have allowed the ninth most DK points to point guards so far. Cedi Osman made his way back to the lineup and was used off the bench on a minutes limit. He could be in play depending on what type of role he’ll have tonight. I’d really like to know how many minutes he’s due to play before I use him. A player like Larry Nance is also likely off the table for me with all the bodies available.

I’ve also been using Tristan Thompson a good bit lately but he might have his hands full with Andre Drummond on the other side of this contest. The Pistons are seventh in rebounding percentage so Thompson doesn’t really have an advantage there. The only player with a usage over 23 percent is Jordan Clarkson. He’s player that doesn’t always do much more than score so his production could fluctuate every night.

Personal Plays – Sexton

Players to Consider – Thompson, Osman, Clarkson, Nance

Pistons Breakdown 

With the Pistons, there’s not exactly a lot to breakdown past Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. They’re both having monster seasons for fantasy and sport basically identical marks of 1.34 and 1.39 FPPM this year. It’s still a bit jarring to see Griffin leading the league in touches per game but he still might be worth the price. The real concern here is blowout since the Cavs aren’t very good but since they allow the second highest field goal percentage from within five feet, both of the studs need to be looked at. Drummond especially is cleaning up down low with 71 percent of his shots coming from within five feet.

You can make the argument to use a point guard because the Cavs have been so bad against them but the issue is trying to pick between Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith every night is impossible. Neither player sits over 0.90 FPPM and it’s really a true time share with both players within three minutes per game of each other. Of the two, I’d rather go with Smith because this game could get out of hand and $3,900 is a really solid price.

Personal Plays – Griffin, Drummond

Players to Consider – Jackson, Smith

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Jazz at Pacers

Pace Ranks – Jazz at 21st, Pacers at 28th

Jazz Breakdown 

On paper, this could be a good spot for Donovan Mitchell. The Pacers have struggled against shooting guards so far and Mitchell has a usage over 32 percent with a FPPM mark of 1.05. Mitchell is actually attempting more field goals than last season and isn’t shooting as well yet so there is still ceiling to get to tonight. Mitchell is also in the top 20 in drives per game so he could score quite a bit on the inside here. It would look like Rudy Robert has a bad matchup since the Pacers are the stingiest team against centers on DK points but I have a hard time thinking Gobert can’t handle Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis down low and clean up on the glass.

Derrick Favors continues to be very efficient in his minutes and he has to be because he hasn’t eclipsed 23 minutes per game yet this season. Still, he’s in the mix every night as a cheap forward mix even though there’s not exactly a crazy stats that points to him. The Pacers are currently giving up the fewest points in the league so it’s spot to tread cautiously.

Personal Plays – Mitchell

Players to Consider – Gobert, Favors, Ricky Rubio

Pacers Breakdown

We’re going to assume that Victor Oladipo won’t play in this game since he left the last game early with a knee injury and didn’t return. If he is out, Tyreke Evans is going to be one of the most popular players on the slate since he owns a 32 percent usage and 1.11 FPPM when Oladipo is off the floor. I’m typically interested in Sabonis because he’s a rebounding machine but I worry about Robert cancelling him out. The weak spot for the Jazz have been point guards which should also put Darren Collison on the radar. He’s up at 0.88 FPPM without Dipo and the only real concern is the minutes. He’s generally been at about 28 minutes and in the last game, he played 26. Collison is generally someone who is better suited for cash because the upside isn’t exactly there. Maybe Myles Turner can be on the radar since he’s so cheap. At under $5,000 and needs to be on the floor against Robert, the threat of the pick and roll is very real. That’s where Robert has struggled to defend this season while Turner ranks among the league’s better centers as the roll man.

Personal Plays – Collison, Evans and Turner if Dipo sits

Players to Consider – Sabonis

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Suns at 76ers

Pace Ranks – Suns at 22nd, 76ers at 7th

Suns Breakdown

Trevor Ariza is due to be back for this game but that doesn’t have the biggest effect on the Suns production. Perhaps my favorite play from the Phone side is T.J. Warren. The 76ers have been dreadful defending the power forward and Warren has been getting a boatload of minutes even before Ariza was gone for a couple of games. The price is still very fair and Warren seems to have found his groove. Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton are up next and Ayton is a tough decision. The Suns are going to need him as much as possible to deal with Joel Embiid but can you trust the inexperienced rookie to stay out of foul trouble? I will likely not go there tonight. Anytime Booker is under $8,000, he’s on my radar and we just saw what shooters are capable of against Philly. I do wonder if the Sixers start to use Jimmy Butler more on guards after his big play against Kemba Walker down the stretch in the last game. Booker is ninth in three-point attempts and Philly is facing the fifth most in the league so Booker could get hot easily.

Personal Plays – Warren, Booker

Players to Consider – Ayton, Mikal Bridges as a punt

76ers Breakdown 

Joel Embiid is the third most expensive player on the slate but I’m still highly interested in him. Phoenix is the fifth worst rebounding team in the league and gives up the fifth most points to centers across basketball. Ayton is just not very good defensively and I’m not sure that he can handle Embiid down low. In addition, Phoenix allows the second most shot attempts from within five feet and the fifth highest field goal percentage. Everything shapes up to be a great day for Embiid, especially since he could get Ayton into would trouble. Phoenix has nobody else that could even dream of hanging with Embiid in that scenario.

The usage hasn’t quite normalized from the addition of Jimmy Butler and the fantasy points for him have been mixed. He’s had a game in the 20’s, 30’s and 40’s so far and his price would be awfully tempting if we knew what we would get. It’s just important to know that the floor is very low. I wonder if Butler and Bens Simmons kind of eat at each other’s value since in the last game, Simmons went crazy and Butler was mostly quiet. It will be interesting to see if all three can score a bunch of points in the same game. If playing just one tonight, I’m leaning Simmons. Butler and Simmons have both been under J.J. Redick as far as usage goes in their limited time on the floor together and Redick has been a consistent scorer in the offense. He’s a solid cash play again and brings badly need perimeter shooting to the Sixers lineup. Mike Muscala should get minutes but is strictly a punt play.

Personal Plays – Embiid, Simmons, Redick for cash

Players to Consider – Butler

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Celtics at Hornets

Pace Ranks – Celtics at 23rd, Hornets at 17th

Celtics Breakdown

To be frank, I’m not a fan of using the Celtics when their team is at full strength. Every one shares the ball so well that it limits fantasy upside. The two players that I do think are perfectly fine options are Kyrie Irving and Al Horford. The Hornets are a neutral matchup as far as point guards go and Irving his far and away the highest usage player for Boston at 29.4 percent and a robust 1.28 FPPM. The price is on the higher side of fair in my view because the floor is there but the ceiling is a little more difficult to predict.

Horford draws a plum matchup against Cody Zeller and I would lean towards him being my number on target from the Boston team. For one, the price difference is large and Charlotte has been getting hammered by centers. It’s fair to note that some of that has come from facing Joel Embiid multiple times but Horford can certainly take advantage of the great spot. He’s technically the second highest FPPM player on the Celtics but it gets crowded after Kyrie. You could also look at Gordon Hayward who no longer has a minutes restriction. We’ve still not seen how he fits in with the Boston offense at full power after his ankle injury last year.

Personal Plays – Horford

Players to Consider – Irving, Hayward, Jason Tatum

Hornets Breakdown 

Kemba Walker just hit another shot. In all seriousness, people are going to chase after he dropped 60 real life points for over 80 DK points and I might have a share just in case there’s some carryover. However, $9,900 is really a prohibitive price for what Walker is normally capable of. Walker continues to shoot a ton for beyond the arc and Boston is giving up the third lowest field goal percentage from downtown. Boston is also giving up the third least amount of real points so I’m not all that interested in the Charlotte offense tonight. Outside of Kemba, there’s really no player that carries any type of usage that should catch our eye and on a bigger slate, it’s just not worth taking a shot at. Unless an injury pops up, it’s not likely at all I play a Hornet.

Personal Plays – None, maybe one Kemba share

Players to Consider – Nicholas Batum, Jeremy Lamb/Malik Monk

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Clippers at Hawks

Pace Ranks – Clippers at 9th, Hawks at 1st

Clippers Breakdown 

I’m not sure I can say just how badly I want to play Montrezl Harrell tonight. The athletic big man excels in fast paced games and it doesn’t get faster than the Hawks. The past four games have seen him play at least 27 and eclipse 30 twice and with Harrell, it’s just a matter of being on the court because he sits at an excellent 1.25 FPPM. Really, in this style of environment, every Clippers player that you would normally look at is viable. Lou Williams leads the second unit with a huge 32.9 percent usage and the Hawks are the bottom of the barrel against 2 guards so far this season, in addition to being the worst defending team against the three ball. Sounds like a Sweet Lou spot to me. His minutes are consistent and there’s no reason to think this game wouldn’t be a game style that gets him well either unless Avery Bradley is back. He would gum up the rotations, making Williams a little risker.

Danilo Gallinari and Tobias Harris are both very reasonable cash style plays because you feel pretty solid about the floor in this game. The Hawks can’t defend at all and are next to last in rebounding on top of that. Harris is a little to pricey for me to use since he’s just under $8,000 on DK.

Personal Plays – Harrell, Williams

Players to Consider – Gallinari, Harris, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Hawks Breakdown

Taurean Prince will miss the game yet again so it leaves DeAndre bembry in the starting lineup but that’s not who I’m looking at in this game for the Hawks.The Hawks offer us some nice options tonight and my favorite play is actually Jeremy Lin. He’s been receiving a solid allotment of minutes and has hit at least 21 DK points in three straight. With a high usage player like Prince out, Lin should continue to see that work and is far too cheap. I wouldn’t mess with Trae Young right now. Not only are the minutes under 30 a game recently, he can’t shoot for diddly squat right now. He’s 15-53 from the field in his last four games so understand what you’re playing if you use him. John Collins is on the radar for the next week or so but only played 12 minutes in his first game back. It would be a stretch to think he lays anything over 15-18 and needs a minutes increase first before we use him.

Personal Plays – Lin

Players to Consider – Bembry, Young, Kent Bazemore(GPP only)

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Spurs at Pelicans

Pace Ranks – Spurs at 27th, Pelicans at 4th

Spurs Breakdown 

This is a pace up spot for the Spurs but New Orleans is bottom five in points allowed soit makes for an interesting mix. DeMar DeRozan leads in usage and FPPM, great spot and is leading the NBA in drives by a lot. That could mean some bad news since Anthony Davis protects the rim but it’s not something that would totally stop me from playing DeRozan. Lamarcus Aldridge is probably going to be needed to have any hope of controlling Davis and even then, it’s not likely to work. Aldridge is coming off a big game just last night so the upside for him is certainly there. The only other player from the Spurs I would really want is Rudy Gay, but it’s not someone I’m looking to jam in tonight. This will be the second set of back to backs for the Spurs within a week so as always with Gregg Popovich, keep an eye on the news for players that might be sat.

Personal Plays – DeRozan, Aldridge

Players to Consider – Gay

Pelicans Breakdown 

Anthony Davis has been on fire with at least 58 DK points in six straight games, making him, Giannis Antetokoumnpo or Embiid as potentially the best high-end option in the elite pricing tier. Projecting blocks can be a fool’s errand but with DeRozan driving the basket so much, Davis does potentially have that upside as well more than normal. Even though the Pelicans are a high pace team, I think many of their players have hit the threshold that keeps them from being in my lineup.

Jrue Holiday is once again primary ball handler after Elf Payton broke a finger, and that’s well and good. He’s capable of having big games but the price is a little high given the guard landscape and game environment if the Spurs drag this game into the mud. Both Julius Randle and Nikola Mirotic are really solid FPPM producers but I’m only using them in a game stack as opposed to a one-off. They’re frankly too expensive unless someone else gets ruled out for this game. E’Twuan Moore has come down back to Earth after some insanely productive games, making him a no-go for me.

Personal Plays – Davis

Players to Consider – Holiday, Mirotic, Randle

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Mavericks at Grizzlies

Pace Ranks – Mavericks at 14th, Grizzlies at 30th

Mavericks Breakdown 

Even in a pace down game, Harrison Barnes might be a little cheap 28 percent usage, 1.04 FPPM and minutes are always there. The only time the minutes weren’t solid for him was when Dallas got mashed by 50 against the Jazz. I’m never super happy to play Barnes but he’s an easy fit in the mid-range of forwards. Memphis is 27th in rebounding which would set up nicely for DeAndre Jordan,  who isn’t a high usage player but he eats glass and dunks. The scoring has been a little uneven this year so he doesn’t come without risk but he’s still in play. I generally don’t target against the Grizzlies and I’m not sure the Mavs are the team to do it with, despite having promising young rookie Luka Doncic. Memphis is just too slow of a team at home.

Personal Plays – Barnes, maybe Jordan

Players to Consider – Doncic, Dennis Smith Jr

Grizzlies Breakdown 

I’m not sure how much of the Grizzlies team I’ll hav tonight either. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are both fine options and will surely be low owned. The issue with Gasol is who else you gave up at the center slot and the fact that he might not have the best ceiling as the Mavs are top 12 against centers. I’m not sure what to do with Jaren Jackson off a big game but he is fairly pricey so I would likely not use him.

The value plays might be whee it’s at for Memphis tonight. Kyle Anderson is the definition of a cash game play, stuffs the stat sheet but isn’t really good at anything. Mavs have struggled against forwards so $4,600 is a pretty nice price for him. Another of the salary savers to keep in mind is Garrett Temple, ton of minutes and shoots over four three’s a game, Dallas giving up second highest field goal percentage from deep and Temple is shooting over 40 percent from beyond the arc. Lastly, Shelvin Mack continues to play well in a backup role and the price just refuses to move too quickly. He’s scoring the ball well, dishing assists and even coming up with some steals. This is a perfectly fine spot to use him even though the Mavs are top 12 in points allowed.

Personal Plays – Anderson, Temple, Mack(not all together)

Players to Consider – Gasol, Conley

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Nuggets at Bucks

Pace Ranks – Nuggets at 26th, Bucks at 5th

Nuggets Breakdown 

I love me some Nikola Jokic and tonight might not be all that different. The Bucks have been surprisingly tough considering they don’t have a lot of interior presence, especially since Brooks Lopez has become a three-point shooter. Jokic averaged a triple double in the two games he played the Bucks last season and is a real threat to do it again tonight. Even at his price, he represents a nice pivot from the three high-priced players on the slate. Juancho Hernangomez has been excelling lately and has especially responded to his increased minutes the past two games. He’s got over 40 DK points due to lights out shooting and rebounding the ball pretty well. It should be noted that both teams rebound exceptionally well and are 1 and 3 in the NBA in rebounding percentage. I might not go towards the guards tonight against Milwaukee because they’re stout defensively against the position. I think Denver is just a couple of players tonight.

Personal Plays – Jokic, Hernangomez

Players to Consider – Jamaal Murray, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap

Bucks Breakdown

Giannis Antetokoumnpo is always in play, even with both teams among the top 13 in points given up. Realistically, who’s going to guard him? He’s going to roast Millsap and Jokic, who as much as I love is not a good defender at all. The Greek Freak is among the leaders is FPPM and usage and is always a solid play. Middleton and Bledsoe is usually where we go next and maybe it still is. Denver has been tough on the three ball(bottom 10 in field goal percentage allowed) which is always a hesitant spot with me and Middleton. This game looks like a shootout on paper so it feels weird not to be terribly excited about a lot of players. It’s interesting to see that Brook Lopez went bonkers against Denver earlier, with 28 real life points. Maybe he can do it again and if you really need value, Pat Connaughton has been getting minutes but the price has crept up too high for me.

Personal Plays – Antetokoumnpo, Lopez

Players to Consider – Middleton, Bledsoe

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Thunder at Kings

Pace Ranks – Thunder at 10th, Kings at 2nd

Thunder Breakdown 

This game is the definition of the “late night hammer” as every other game tips at least 2 hours before this one. Russell Westbrook is out and that makes Paul George and Dennis Schroder very expensive. George carries a 32.7 usage rate and 1.35 FPPM while Schroder is slightly less and Schroeder is $2,000 cheaper. Along with that, he gets the better matchup as De’Aaron Fox is a poor defender. The only real question is do either of these players have a ceiling at the price point? The answer is likely now and George probably has the safer floor for raw points.

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Steven Adams gets a great matchup, and has been much better for fantasy without Westbrook than I thought he would be. The price is high since Westbrook has been out but  Sacramento is 25th in rebounding while the Thunder are fourth, meaning Adams has the advantage. Any of the big three from Oklahoma City is a fine cash play but likely is priced out of a ceiling game. Jerami Grant is the last Thunder player to discuss as he has a slightly bigger role when Westbrook is missing. He’s a solid cheap way to get some exposure to this game but doesn’t have the best matchup.

Personal Plays – George, Adams

Players to Consider – Grant, Schroeder

Kings Breakdown 

De’Aaron Fox is far too cheap and gets a ton of minutes when the games stay competitive. With no Westbrook, there’s an excellent chance that Fox shows off his mark of 1.16 FPPM over the course of at least 35-38 minutes so I’m all in at $6,100. Buddy Heild has seen his minutes come down and I’m not willing to pay the price for him despite usually being a player from the Kings we can use. Willie Cauley-Stein has a very tough matchup but will be needed for Adams as long as he can stay on the floor. Center has so many options that he might be a hard sell. Rookie Marvin Bagley is worth a shot in GPP because if he gets the minutes, he could smash the price tag. With a 23.3 percent usage and 1.01 FPPM you could argue he should get more but we haven’t hit that point yet. Some of the Kings are very attractive even in a difficult spot as the Thunder are 5th in points allowed.

Personal Plays – Fox, Cauley-Stein

Players to Consider – Heild, Bagley

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