DraftKings NBA Picks November 20: Whiteside’s playing the Nets!
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks November 20: Whiteside’s playing the Nets!
This is our only light DraftKings NBA slate of the week with it completely empty on Thursday. We only have four games tonight. The Clippers are the only team playing on a back to back. It doesn’t seem likely that they will rest anyone, but you never really know in today’s NBA.
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Sometimes it’s just bad mojo to use the same value picks in each lineup. That got me into trouble last night since Hernangomez had his worst game in weeks and Nwaba was a bit of a disappointment. A below value game from PG13 made sure I didn’t cash. The money line was way up at 282.75 DraftKings points. Both of mine were in the 250’s.
The winning lineup was a tie at 365.25 DraftKings points. It’s unusual to see a tie on this large of a slate. Both of them built around Randle, Kyrie, Booker, and Trae Young. They got huge value from Mike Scott and a strong game from Lamb to bring it home.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bet:
John Wall ($9,000): Wall hasn’t hit value over the last three games, but his floor has still been higher than Lillard’s. Lillard has put up a few big point totals in that span, so I understand if you want to go that route. However, the Knicks have managed to do pretty well with perimeter players. The Clippers have allowed the most fantasy points to point guards so far this year. With them also being on the second night of a back to back, this looks like a big spot for Wall.
Honorable Mention:
D’Angelo Russell ($7,300): The usage on Russell is way up with LeVert out. He has taken at least 16 shots in every game that LeVert has been out so far. Of course, we know the story with Russell. He can go ice cold from the field. There are safer options, but the upside on Russell usually makes him worth taking the plunge.
Dark Horses:
Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,500): Dinwiddie is the rock to the volatility of Russell. Of course, Dinwiddie had a horrible night from the floor against the Clippers, but he still hit 5x value. That’s the difference between him and Russell. Dinwiddie is by far the safer option, but he doesn’t quite have the upside that Russell has. However, both are getting enough minutes to use, and I kind of like the idea of using both tonight.
Tyler Johnson ($5,400): The Nets have allowed the least fantasy points to point guards, but Johnson gets the added advantage to still coming off the bench. Miami will let others run with the first team, but Johnson still gets to be the man on the second team and should see a few more minutes with the starters. It’s harder for him to hit value due to this giant price spike, but I would bet he still does with Dragic out.
My pick: Dinwiddie(PG), Russell(SG), Johnson(G); Wall(PG), Johnson(G)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Bradley Beal ($7,800): Beal was a bit of a letdown the first time they played the Clippers, and he really hasn’t been as reliable as usual in the early going. That said, this is still a good matchup for Beal. With Kawhi only hitting value when he plays Boston, it seems to be the right play to pay down.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($7,200): The cold streak seems to have subsided as Hardaway is back to shooting 20+ times per game. This kind of usage makes him worth a look even though he doesn’t provide much other than scoring. The emergence of Burke has actually helped Hardaway since opposing teams can’t just key on him. THJ is still by far the most reliable Knick for DFS purposes.
Honorable Mention:
CJ McCollum ($6,800): McCollum has had some bad games in the early going, which makes him pretty hard to use. However, New York has done much better defending the point than the off guard. That could leave CJ getting more shots than Lillard. I’m more inclined to take the chance with CJ because Lillard is so expensive right now.
Lou Williams ($6,200): Williams keeps putting up solid stat line, but it’s his upside that will have him pretty heavily owned tonight on a small slate. LouWill put up 28.5 in the first meeting with Washington. That gives him a pretty good floor with the upside he has. The minutes aren’t an issue for me since the Clippers have played him 28 minutes or more in every game. Williams will get plenty of chances, and is a safer play that CJ.
Dark Horses:
Rodney McGruder ($4,800): While Johnson hasn’t seen an uptick in scoring with Dragic out, McGruder has seen a little bit of a bump. McGruder has three straight games of over 20 DraftKings points. If you need to save even more, Wayne Ellington is getting more run as well, and he hit 25 DraftKings points in 38 minutes against the Lakers. You could even argue that Ellington has a safer floor than McGruder.
Trey Burke ($4,200): Burke has been the best guard with the exception of Hardaway. The Knicks are finally starting to give him some run. Burke has 71.5 DraftKings points over the last two games despite coming off the bench. The Knicks should continue to lean on Burke with both Ntilikina and Trier struggling.
My pick: N/A; Hardaway(SG)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Tobias Harris ($7,600): Blake who? DeAndre who? The Clippers jettisoned their expensive and sometimes drama ridden talent for a whole new batch. There is none of the drama, and almost all of the production. Harris had yet another 40+ DraftKings point game last night, running his streak of game with at least 33 DraftKings points to nine, or the entire month of November. Harris continues to eclipse 5x value with regularity, and is a very strong mid range play on a short slate.
Josh Richardson ($7,100): The absence of Dragic could mean big things for Richardson. After all, he racked up 33 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes due to foul trouble (and a subsequent ejection for throwing a shoe against the scorer’s table) against the Lakers. If Richardson can stay on the floor, his ability to make buckets will leave him as one of the focal points of the offense.
Honorable Mention:
Terrence Ross ($4,700): Ross has had a couple of clunkers in a row, and only partially because his minutes have dropped. Actually, I think it’s the former causing the latter. At any rate, the drop off at SF is steep. We all know what Ross is capable of. If he gets back on track, he is going to destroy value at this price, but can he really do it against Toronto?
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,700): Playing a three, four, or five against the Knicks is usually a pretty good idea. Aminu has five straight games of 20 or more DraftKings points. That would leave him short of value for the price, but he should be able to hit the high 20’s against the Knicks. The upside on Aminu is limited though, so he is likely better left for cash games.
Dark Horses:
Kelly Oubre ($4,600): Oubre has been getting more run lately with the struggles of Porter. Of course, if Porter breaks out of his funk, we could see the minutes for Oubre diminish with no notice. However, with the way Oubre has played lately, this seems unlikely. Oubre has at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last three games including 64 over the last two. That makes Oubre a pretty safe value play……and it means Oubre has outscored Porter twice in a row.
Danny Green ($4,500): Part of Green’s bigger day was likely due in part to Kawhi resting, but Green hitting all seven shots from the floor has to help him going forward. Toronto has a very deep bench just like they did last year, but Green should see a few more minutes until he cools off.
My pick: Oubre(SF); Harris(SF), Oubre(UTIL)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Aaron Gordon ($6,900): Gordon is always a tough one in DFS. He has a very high ceiling, but that floor is very low. We have seen some truly awful showings from Gordon at times, but he does seem to be a little more consistent lately. Gordon has at least 35 DraftKings points in eight of his last ten games. So yes, this price looks a little low, even against the Raptors.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,600): Harrell has carved out a nice role up front for the Clippers. He has at least 28 DraftKings points in each of the last eight games, and has been over 30 in seven of those. Harrell has proven to be really good off the bench, so you don’t have to worry about a bench player costing this much Harrell is hitting value anyway.
Honorable Mention:
Pascal Siakam ($6,400): Siakam is the safest of the safe tonight. He has at least 28 DraftKings points in eight straight and at least 30 in five straight. The Raptors have really done well with both Siakam and Ibaka on the court together, so his numbers aren’t going down anytime soon. Enjoy the output against the Magic tonight. His numbers could go even higher.
Dark Horses:
Jonathan Isaac ($3,500): Welcome to Tuesday night chalk. Isaac has 56.25 DraftKings points in just 41 minutes over the last two games. Whether Orlando decides to start him or not doesn’t matter. He is putting up huge numbers at a very small price. This is one instance where you almost have to deal with the high ownership. However, if you choose to bow out on this, against Toronto gives you enough reason to feel good about the fade and separate yourself from the pack.
Mike Scott ($3,300): Scott had been a solid value source for much of the year anyway, but he came up big with Gallinari out. Since the Clips have to play two nights in a row and Gallinari was out with an illness, we could conceivably see more run for Scott again tonight. Maybe even more so due to Washington’s size up front. Scott is a good value play that becomes great chalk if Gallinari misses another game.
My pick: Gordon(PF), Siakam(F); Gordon(PF), Isaac(F)
DraftKings NBA Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Vucevic ($8,300): Vucevic usually has issues with good defenders, so using him against Toronto is a tough sell. However, Vucevic has three straight games of 50 or more DraftKings points. If you think he stays hot and bucks that trend, you are going to put some distance between you and the field if Vucevic hits 50 again.
Hassan Whiteside ($8,000): Even 45 year old Dwight Howard discovered the fountain of youth in the Brooklyn frontcourt. He’s playing the Nets. Lock and load on Whiteside.
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Honorable Mention:
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,400): The Knicks still have really good overall numbers against centers, but they are misleading. They have been sliding down the list since Robinson began starting over Kanter. There is solid potential for Nurkic here.
Enes Kanter ($6,300): I really hate the Knicks for going all Joakim Noah on Kanter. Robinson only played nine minutes due to foul trouble on Sunday, and Kanter had a huge game. If for some reason the Knicks decide to try, Kanter is a must play.
Serge Ibaka ($6,000): Ibaka has been thriving alongside Siakam instead of splitting time with him. Vucevic is not a strong defender despite his offensive prowess, so there is pretty good upside for Ibaka here. He has struggled against big centers, but shouldn’t here.
Dark Horses:
Jarrett Allen ($5,700): If Allen is first team among worst defending centers, Whiteside is his backup. Both centers are in for huge games tonight. The difference is that Allen will cost you a fraction of the price and likely play a few more minutes.
Marcin Gortat ($3,700): Gortat is a sure 5x value at a very low price, making him a very popular DFS punt if you are willing to sacrifice your UTIL or C slot. It could be worth it in revenge game number 2 for Gortat. He put up a solid 24 DraftKings points on the Wizards in the first meeting. If he does that again, that’s almost 7x value!
My pick: Whiteside(C), Allen(UTIL); Allen(C)
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