DFS NFL Thanksgiving Day Game by Game Breakdown

Nothing goes better with some turkey than some fantasy football and we have one of the marquee matchups of the year in the nightcap of this Thanksgiving DFS NFL Slate!

This DFS NFL slate is really boiling down to one goal for me – get as many pieces of the New Orleans Saints offense that I can. There will be some value plays throughout to help us achieve that and the main focus is the trio of Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. They’re at home and one of the best offenses in football in a game that should shootout. Let’s get to work to see just how we get there!

DFS NFL – Bears at Lions, No Line

Bears Defensive Ranks 

QB – 8th, 16.1   RB – 1st, 12.1     WR – 17th, 24.7    TE – 9th, 6.4 

We don’t have a line in this game because Mitchell Trubisky is in jeopardy of missing it so that would change the complexion drastically. We’ll get to that in a minute but the Detroit side has some limited options. The Lions offense has been crushed by injuries and through various means could be without Golden Tate(traded), Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson in this game. In addition, the offensive line for Detroit has really scuffled the past three weeks, surrendering 17 sacks in the past two weeks. These two squads just faced each other in Chicago two weeks ago so we might have an idea of what to expect. Matthew Stafford was harassed into taking six sacks and that could well happen again with Khalil Mack on the other side. It’s not going to help that Detroit will be down to Kenny Golladay as far as a downfield threat. That could open up other avenues, however.

Since the receiving corps is so decimated, Theo Riddick and Bruce Ellington take center stage as salary savers on this slate. Ellington was especially impressive last week, playing through an injury of his own for 50 percent of the snaps. He caught six of his nine targets on Sunday for 52 yards and is a very nice play on DK. Stafford is going to have to get the ball out quick and Ellington saw about 25 percent of the targets last week. That also means short, quick passes to Riddick could function as their running game. One of the best ways to frustrate pass rushers is to just throw the ball very quickly on screens and dump offs. Riddick has seen seven or eight targets the past three weeks and that was with Johnson in the mix as well. Golladay himself is a lock for double digit targets and is a perfectly fine play. Detroit isn’t my favorite offense, but their value plays could prove to be imperative.

Cash Plays – Riddick, Ellington, Golladay, Lions D/ST if Trubisky is out

GPP Plays – Stafford

Lions Defensive Ranks 

QB – 23rd, 19.4     RB – 24th, 21.6    WR – 25th, 26.2    TE – 17th, 7.8 

The tough part of this side of the game is Trubisky might not play. If he does, he’s nothing more than a GPP play since he’s dealing with a shoulder injury and could get knocked out of the game. If he doesn’t, I’m hard pressed to play Chase Daniel given the opportunity cost. Granted, you could likely really load up on skill position players but not having Brees or Matt Ryan could be costly. The Bears offense is kind of tough to peg every given week. They score points but don’t force feed the ball to any one player. If you’re playing Allen Robinson and hoping for a repeat of his massive game the first time around, you’re likely to be disappointed as that’s been his best game by far. Anthony Miller has scored double digit DK points in four straight games and was kind of on a roll headed into Sunday night. He still scored but only seeing three targets wasn’t what we’re looking for from a consistency standpoint.

Trey Burton is a touchdown or bust player but keep an eye on Adam Shaheen. He might not clear concussion protocol but if he does, you can punt at tight end and hope he catches a short range touchdown. If Trubisky is out, I might be out on the passing game overall. The lone exception might be Tarik Cohen, but he saw his snaps drop last week. He and Jordan Howard are in the middle of a frustrating committee with nothing to bank on every game. However, with Trubisky at best not fully healthy, they might go ground and pound. Detroit has struggled against running backs all year so Howard and Cohen are in play, just not as cash options. I don’t think the Bears offense replicates their points from the first game, regardless of Trubisky plays.

Cash Plays – None, maybe Trubisky if he’s 100 percent healthy

GPP Plays – Cohen, Howard, Miller, Robinson, Burton, Taylor Gabriel

DFS NFL – Redskins at Cowboys, O/U of 41.0, Cowboys -7.5

Redskins Defensive Ranks 

QB – 19th, 17.6    RB – 10th, 16.5    WR – 18th, 24.9    TE – 7th, 5.9 

The Cowboys remain one of the easier teams to breakdown every single week because there’s really only three to five players you can consider. We start with Ezekiel Elliott and I think it’s going to be fascinating to see his ownership on this slate. He’s more expensive than Kamara and Mark Ingram and that’s going to make him potentially one of the better GPP targets. Washington held him to one of his worst games in his career(6.2 DK points) the first time around and are only allowing the sixth fewest rushing yards in the league. They’ve also only given up seven rushing touchdowns so this is a challenging spot for Zeke that he’s failed in once before and he’s the second most expensive player on the board.

The passing game continues to tantalize but isn’t anything consistent at this point. I was on Amari Cooper last week due to his target volume and red zone involvement in his first two weeks in Dallas and he then proceeded to dud for just three receptions for 36 yards. The secondary receivers for the Cowboys like Cole Beasley and Michael Gallup are worth a look as punts but nothing more than that. They did combine for 12 targets last week and Washington has given up the 12th most points to receivers so far this season. These guys are the kinds of players that could tilt the slate out of whack, and for some reason I have a weird feeling about Gallup. It might be the first time I’ve ever said that in a breakdown, for whatever that might be worth. Dar Prescott would be a fine floor play but like the first game, if he score 18-20 and the much more popular quarterbacks in the night game go 30+, that’s a problem.

Cash Plays – Cooper, Elliott from a volume perspective, Cowboys D/ST

GPP Plays – Gallup, Cooper, Elliott for the ceiling

Cowboys Defensive Ranks 

QB – 15th, 16.9    RB – 7th, 15.4     WR – 4th, 19.1    TE – 18th, 7.9 

The Washington offense is mostly a pass for me. They weren’t very good when Alex Smith was playing and now that his injury has left Colt McCoy as the starter for the remainder of the season, it likely won’t get better. Dallas has a good defense and is my D/ST of choice, as it will be of many people. There’s two exceptions in the passing game and that’s Jordan Reed and Trey Quinn. Reed actually came to life when McCoy entered the game, catching his first touchdown since Week 1. I’m just not sure spending on the most expensive tight end is optimal. Quinn was the last pick in this year’s draft but was a stud in his senior year at college and slid into the Jamison Crowder role this past week. At just $3,500, he should avoid the coverage of Byron Jones and be a nice way to fit in the night game. I will have zero Adrian Peterson with the Redskins offense in disarray.

Cash Plays – Quinn

GPP Plays – Reed, Peterson

DFS NFL – Falcons at Saints, O/U of 61.0, Saints -13.5

Falcons Defensive Ranks 

QB – 30th, 22.8     RB – 29th, 24.8    WR – 28th, 27.1    TE – 12th, 6.7 

Whatever you or however you celebrate Thursday, make sure you can watch this game. It could be very close to the fireworks we got Monday night as the first time around, the quarterbacks combined for 10 total touchdowns. What more can we say about the Saints? They’re one of the best offenses in the league, at home and draw a fantastic matchup.

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I already mentioned the trio I want and Kamara is especially a priority for me considering the Falcons have allowed 93 receptions to running backs. He might be one of the biggest locks we’ve had all season. No other team has crossed 80 yet. Tre’Quan Smith is sure to draw some attention after his explosion game on Sunday and I will likely have a couple shares after he put me over the top for my big win. The targets have been volatile to say the least but we want to use the secondary pieces in shootout games at home. Even Ben Watson is in play as a punt tight end for this game.

Cash Plays – Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Ingram

GPP Plays – Smith, Watson

Saints Defensive Ranks 

QB – 29th, 22.1     RB – 3rd, 14.2    WR – 32nd, 32.0    TE – 3rd, 4.8 

I very much want to run back my Saints stack with at least one Falcon and that man for me is Julio Jones. The man is absolutely on fire right now and nobody can cover him. Yes, I’m including Marshon Lattimore in that group as well. He’s scored at least 21 DK points in five straight games and has found the end zone in three straight. For Julio, that’s like scoring 20 touchdowns in a season. Where it gets interesting is how you can add to the Falcons stack if you desire. Matt Ryan is having a year reminiscent of his 2016 MVP campaign and that’s going virtually unnoticed. He will almost certainly be lower owned than Brees and is a great pivot. Since the Falcons will likley have to throw a good bit, I will likely head towards Mohamed Sanu instead of Calvin Ridley. Sanu runs about 70 percent of his routes from the slot which means he gets to pick on P.J. Williams and his 125.8 passer rating allowed this year. The first meeting saw Sanu score 15.6 DK points although in fairness that was Ridley’s breakout game. I feel like picking the right player could be the difference in a GPP and I side with Sanu due to matchup. The Saints defense has taken major strides since that first matchup. I generally don’t play running backs against the Saints. They allow the fewest rushing yards per game in football and it’s just not worth beating your head against a wall.

Cash Plays – Ryan, Jones, Sanu

GPP Plays – Ridley, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for the rest of our weekend NFL breakdown, and all of the NBA DFS you will ever need!