NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks: Wednesday, November 21st, 2018

Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks articles!

Welcome back to another edition of the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks! It’s been a week since I’ve been able to get out an article but boy oh boy there may not have been a better slate to return to than tonight’s.

As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.

With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.

11/21/2018 NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Slate Outlook:

I don’t know if this slate is going to be fun, overwhelming, intimidating or everything in between, but it will be SOMETHING! We have a massive 13-game slate heading into the Thanksgiving holiday that has a number of premier matchups between the Warriors and Thunder, 76ers and Pelicans and more.

Just about every stud imaginable is on the slate, so picking and choosing which are in the best spots and which are the most valuable on a point-per-dollar basis will be pivotal in navigating this slate. On top of that, we have LeBron’s return to Cleveland in what should be one of the most exciting narratives of the season.

Buckle up everyone, this slate is going to be insane.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Primary Game Stack: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors

Thunder Team Ranks:

Pace: 9th (105.0 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 15th (105.5 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 4th (101.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)

With Russell Westbrook ($11.0k FD / $10.7k DK) back from injury, it seems like both sites have lagged a bit to price him appropriately. In his first game back, he saw a full allotment of minutes (36) and tallied a 29-point, 13-rebound, 7-assist and 3 steal outing against the Kings. He picked up right where he left off and maintains an elite 35.5% usage rate and produces 1.63 fantasy points per minute. Since his once-brother Kevin Durant left for the Warriors, Westbrook has averaged 29.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, 8.6 assists and 1.8 steals per game against him. He’s too cheap for his floor/ceiling combo and comes in as my #1 stud tonight.

Now that Westbrook is back, Paul George ($8.9k FD / $8.9k DK) has taken an expected back seat. In their last game against the Kings, George still posted 27 points and 9 rebounds en route to 42.3 FanDuel points. I expect him to log a heavy amount of minutes in order for the Thunder to slow down Durant, which should lead to more steals and blocks than normal. Like Westbrook, he’s a tad under-priced for his 30% usage rate and makes for a solid play on both sites, but more specifically FanDuel.

Steven Adams ($7.3k FD / $7.4k DK) has been Mr. Consistent this season, posting at least 35 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 outings. While he’ll take a bit of a hit offensively with Westbrook back, he should still be a double-double machine and the third head on offense, giving him a solid floor in this matchup.

My issue with playing Adams, however, is the fact that I can see the Warriors playing a lot of small ball. This would lead to a heightened ceiling for Jerami Grant ($5.1k FD / $4.4k DK) should he suit up. He contributes across the stat sheet so the return of Westbrook won’t hurt him too much and he’s super cheap on DraftKings. Should he sit, Patrick Patterson ($3.5k FD / $3.0k DK) could draw the start at minimum-price across the industry. While his ceiling is rather low, he would make for an intriguing punt on FanDuel with their new rule this season.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Golden State Warriors

Pace: T17th (102.6 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 1st (113.8 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 14th (106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)

With Steph Curry and Draymond Green both sidelined for this matchup, all eyes for Golden State will turn to Kevin Durant ($10.7k FD / $10.6k DK). Much like Westbrook, Durant is too cheap for his floor/ceiling combination tonight. With Curry and Green off of the floor, Durant holds an insane 39.9% usage rate with a 1.51 fantasy point per minute production rate. He rivals Westbrook as the top play of the slate and frankly, I wouldn’t argue with you no matter which way you go.

With those two off of the court, Klay Thompson ($6.8k FD / $6.6k DK) sees the second highest usage bump on the team (+5%). With Paul George likely tasked with covering Kevin Durant, it seems like Thompson should have a bit more wiggle room on offense tonight. In their last meeting with the Thunder, Thompson posted 20 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals. In what I expect to be the highest scoring game on the night, Thompson is a rock solid cash game option with an extremely high ceiling.

Replacing Curry in the starting lineup has been a combination of Quinn Cook ($5.6k FD / $5.3k DK) and Andre Iguodala ($3.8k FD / $3.6k DK). Cook has seen more minutes over the last stretch of games, as he sees a 2.6% usage bump and averages 0.13 more fantasy points per minute with Curry off the floor. I expect him to draw the start tonight and if he does, he’d become one of the top value plays on the slate. Iguodala is an intriguing play at near min-price with both Curry and Draymond out in an up-tempo game, but you have to be able to stomach some risk when rostering him.

Jonas Jerebko ($4.6k FD / $4.1k DK) has been the most productive player filling the void of Draymond Green. Over the last two games with Green out, Jerebko has seen an average of 25 minutes and posted 6.5 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Those are serviceable numbers with the upside a matchup like this gives him.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers

Pelicans Team Ranks:

Pace: 3rd (107.0 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 3rd (111.7 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 25th (109.3 points allowed per 100 possessions)

The Pelicans are typically in the primary game stack of the article and while the OKC/GSW game takes priority, this game is like a 1B to their 1A.

Anthony Davis ($12.2k FD / $11.4k DK) seems to have finally gotten over his nagging elbow injury, posting 32 points, 13 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2 blocks and 1 steal per game over the last 10 days. If it weren’t for Westbrook and Durant being a tad under-priced, Davis would be the top stud on the slate. While I recommend the prior two in cash, Davis could be a fantastic GPP play with what I expect to be low ownership.

With Elfrid Payton out for the foreseeable future, Jrue Holiday ($8.8k FD / $8.1k DK) will continue to command all of the minutes he can handle in the back court. He’s posted at least 40 FanDuel points in 12 of his last 14 games and holds the 2nd highest usage rate on the team (27.2%). While a matchup with Jimmy Butler is far from ideal, he comes with one of the safest floors on the slate.

Predicting who will have a more productive outing between Nikola Mirotic ($7.6k FD / $6.9k DK) and Julius Randle ($7.5k FD / $7.0k DK) has been tough, especially over the last four games. Randle has taken off, as he’s fresh off of a 55 fantasy point outing while Mirotic has seemingly been headed the opposite way. In this particular matchup, I would lean Mirotic as the 76ers don’t have an intimidating defender at the 3/4, while Embiid will expectedly disrupt Randle in the post.

While the Pelicans don’t offer a heap of value, E’Twaun Moore ($5.5k FD / $5.0k DK) has been a reliable source of production. He’s posted at least 13 points in 6 straight games while scoring 24 or more in 3 of those. He’s seen over 30 minutes per game and has contributed a respectable amount in the rebounding/assist categories as well. If you need a low/mid-tier play on DraftKings, Moore is worth consideration.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Philadelphia 76ers Team Ranks

Pace: 6th (105.5 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 13th (105.9 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 7th (103.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)

The 76ers pulled off the biggest trade of the season so far landing Jimmy Butler and it has certainly shaken up their offense.

Since his arrival, the only player posting a usage rate above 25% is Joel Embiid ($11.2k FD / $10.8k DK). He has a usage rate of 34.9% over the last two weeks and posts an elite 1.55 fantasy points per minute rate. Anthony Davis is a stellar defender, but these are typically matchups in which Embiid thrives. He only played 1 game against them last season and was limited to 24 minutes, but posted 24 points, 16 rebounds, 2 steals and a block. Add 12-13 minutes at that production and he has the potential to be the top overall scorer on the slate.

Jimmy Butler ($8.4k FD / $7.1k DK) hasn’t been the offensive juggernaut that we’re accustomed to since the trade, averaging only 18.3 points, 3.5 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game. While these numbers are rather uncharacteristic, it’s hard not to hit the lock button on DraftKings for only $7.1k. He makes for a phenomenal play there, but is priced a bit too high for my liking on FanDuel.

Ben Simmons ($9.7k FD / $8.6k DK) saw a drop in production in the first two games with Butler, but has been back to his normal self over the last two. In that span, he’s averaged 21 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Even if his scoring production dips with Butler in town, he contributes so much across the stat sheet that it won’t affect him much. He’s more of a GPP play tonight, but the ceiling at low ownership is extremely enticing on DraftKings.

Another player that has seen a surprising uptick in production since the trade has been JJ Redick ($5.5k FD / $5.2k DK). Over the last 5 games, he’s averaged 20.6 points, 2.8 assists and 2.4 rebounds in 31 minutes per game. He’s also got the second highest usage rate on the team over the last two weeks (24.9%). With so much of the Pelicans’ attention on the new big three in Philly, Redick could see room to operate and fly under the radar tonight.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Top Value Stack: Cleveland Cavaliers (vs LAL)

Cavs Team Ranks:

Pace: T25th (100.4 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 26th (103.3 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 28th (110.8 points allowed per 100 possessions)

The Cavs have been getting absolutely decimated by injuries this season and are staring at a blowout tonight, but with such a tight rotation there is still plenty of value to be had.

George Hill is out and Collin Sexton ($6.0k FD / $5.4k DK) listed as a GTD, we could see a ton of Jordan Clarkson ($5.6k FD / $5.2k DK) tonight. While he’s mostly known for his scoring ability, he has averaged 5 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game over his last 5 on top of 15 points in 27.6 minutes per game. The Lakers are a rather susceptible team defensively and one that Clarkson should be able to produce against. If Sexton is able to play, he makes for a fine mid-tier play on DraftKings given his scoring upside, but I’m a bit uncomfortable with his price on FanDuel.

Prior to seeing only 19 minutes last game, Larry Nance Jr. ($6.0k FD / $5.6k DK) had a very productive string of games. In his 3 prior, he was averaging 6.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2 steals and 2.3 blocks per game. The return of Cedi Osman ($5.1k FD / $4.3k DK) may put a small dent in his playing time, but he’s still a viable mid-tier option.

Speaking of Osman, he’s vastly under-priced for the role he should assume. While he was disappointing in 30 minutes last game,  he’ll be one of the few options on offense for the Cavs with Kevin Love, Sam Dekker and George Hill all absent. He’s a fantastic value play on DraftKings at $4.3k.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Value Stack: Dallas Mavericks (vs BKN)

Mavericks Team Ranks:

Pace: 16th (102.8 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 20th (104.9 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 11th (105.7 points allowed per 100 possessions)

Another team currently ravaged by injuries is the Dallas Mavericks, as both Dennis Smith ($6.1k FD / $5.6k DK) and JJ Barea ($4.1k FD / $4.4k DK) are now listed as game time decisions.

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Barea sat on Monday and should he sit again and Smith play, he comes as a fantastic point-per-dollar option. In his last game without Barea (and Wes Matthews who was also out), Smith posted 19 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds and 2 steals in 31 minutes. This was also the first time he saw 30+ minutes since November 6th against the Wizards.

If both are to miss in addition to Matthews, Dorian Finney-Smith ($4.2k FD / $3.8k DK) should see as many minutes as he can handle. Over his last 5 games, he’s averaging over 30 minutes per game (30.9) leading to 11.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1 assist and 1.4 steals per game. At almost minimum price on DraftKings, he’s one of my top value plays.

Harrison Barnes ($5.9k FD / $5.4k DK) has had quite the inconsistent season with the new addition of Luka Doncic to the team, but with all of the injuries to his teammates, I have a hard time believing he’ll bust tonight. He’s seen 36 minutes in back to back games and has also averaged 18.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1 steal per game over his last 4. The Nets rank 24th in overall defensive efficiency, so they shouldn’t be much of a threat at all to Barnes’ mini hot streak.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all of your weekend NFL needs and our daily NBA basketball articles. The NBA is off on Thursday, but we have the NFL and EuroLeague covered!