College Football picks against the spread November 23, 2018
By Mike Marteny
College Football picks against the spread November 23, 2018
Are you all full of stuffing from the holiday? Now we get to watch our favorite college football teams beat the stuffing out of each other. Rivalry week officially begins today. We have bowls, cups, and even wars to sort through. Where can we make some money?
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For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! My best week of the season puts me back above .500 on the season at 305-290. I also had my biggest point gain in a single week since I’ve been assigning points with 49 last week. I not have 25 on the season and 56 in my point bank overall.
As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.
For you eagle eyes, no, I haven’t tallied up my picks from last week. I’m working on it, but a lingering cold that spread to my eyes and a drive to Siberia in the U.S. has hindered my progress. I hope to have them up tomorrow!
(14)Texas(-14.5) at Kansas(3):
The Big 12(10) has shunned the rivalry after Thanksgiving thing just so they don’t have a rematch in the Big 12(10) title game the next week. I get it, but it sure makes this day a little less interesting without Bedlam on the schedule. At any rate, this Kansas offense is pretty solid. Kansas has played well at home. I don’t think Texas covers, and it may just be because of that half.
Nebraska at Iowa(-8.5)(3):
This is fast becoming a heated rivalry, which Nebraska needs without Colorado, Oklahoma, or Missouri on the schedule every year. I do wonder if the oddsmakers have watched either of these teams over the last three weeks. Nebraska looks like the far better team. If they win, I would bet a 5-7 Nebraska still gets a bowl invite. That’s a lot to play for. Give me Nebraska straight up!
Akron at Ohio(-23.5)(2):
That’s a lot of points, but Akron has completely fallen apart after early season battles against Iowa State and a win over Big Ten West champ Northwestern. I have to go with Ohio here.
Buffalo(-14.5) at Bowling Green(4):
The only reason that I don’t have five on this is that I am starting to doubt Buffalo a little bit. Another bad loss last week could make it tough to get up off the turf. Buffalo is the far better team, but my confidence in this is wavering a bit. I still say they get back on track here.
Central Michigan at Toledo(-19.5)(1):
This is a tough one. Everything tells me this is too many, but the Chippewas have been awful lately. Give me Toledo, I guess.
Eastern Michigan(-13.5) at Kent State(3):
This looks low. I know that Kent has played better lately, but the Eagles are going to run on them, and probably wont stop. I’ll take EMU.
Houston at Memphis(-7.5)(2):
We really don’t have much of a baseline on this. Sure, Ed Oliver is back, but D’Eriq King is done. How will the Memphis offense look without him? Clayton Tune was decent after King went down last weekend, but decent probably wont cut it. I’m flipping to Memphis because Houston can’t stop Henderson.
Arkansas at Missouri(-23.5)(1):
Yuck. I would say this is too many, but Arkansas looked terrible last week. That said, The Bulldogs have a good defense. Missouri does not. Give me Arkansas. I still think the Piggies lose by three touchdowns, but they shouldn’t get covered.
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama(EVEN)(2):
The body of work for the Chanticleers is enough better than I’m going to take them, even in Mobile. USA isn’t as strong at home as they have been in recent years. Chanticleers win this.
East Carolina at Cincinnati(-17.5)(3):
This is quite a few points, but that Cincinnati defense is still a good unit. The offense put them in some precarious situations last week. Give me the Bearcats.
Virginia(-4.5) at Virginia Tech(4):
This looks very low, but no matter what else the Hokies have looked like over the last two months, they are going to show up for the Commonwealth Cup. I’m not completely confident in this because that Virginia offense isn’t great. However, it’s good enough. Give me the Hoos.
Oregon(-18.5) at Oregon State(2):
This is too many. I have seen the Beavers win the Civil War in years in which any humane person wouldn’t have let them on the same field as Oregon. Some way, somehow, Oregon State doesn’t get covered. Just don’t ask me how.
(9)Central Florida(-14.5) at South Florida(3):
I don’t particularly like that half, but I’ve picked against the Knights outright in each of the last two weeks. They’ve covered anyway. USF is not playing good football right now, so I’m not sure how they hang around. Give me UCF.
(6)Oklahoma(-2.5) at (13)West Virginia(3):
Don’t get me wrong. The Oklahoma defense is a new breed of terrible. I like Ruffin McNeil, but I have seen no improvement, especially against the run. Fortunately, West Virginia can’t run to save their souls. That defense isn’t a strong unit either. The last time Oklahoma lost a November game was November 8 of 2014 against Baylor. The 16 game November win streak isn’t ending here. BOOMER!
(16)Washington at (8)Washington State(-2.5)(5):
It has been a long, long time since the Apple Cup has been this important. This will decide who faces off against against Utah for the Pac 12 title. Believe me, that is a secondary prize. I lived in Washington for five instances of this game. That was enough to realize that these two teams really don’t like each other. This doesn’t get the face time that other rivalries in the east do, but trust me. The hatred is the same. The Huskies want nothing more than to spoil the Cougars’ best season ever. Better luck next time. Give me the Leaches!
I don’t like that half, but I also don’t see a scenario where the Jags stick around. Give me Louisiana.