DFS NFL Game by Game Breakdown, Week 12

Week 12 brings another 10 game slate with quite a few high octane offenses unavailable so this week in DFS NFL is going to be a lot of fun!

This is a tough DFS NFL slate and an easy one all at once. Since we’re missing so many good offenses due to Thanksgiving, bye weeks and prime time football, the slate is narrowed down. The hard part is wondering if the focus is too narrow and missing some other factor. Let’s take a look and see where we’re at!

DFS NFL – Browns at Bengals, O/U of 46.5, Bengals -3.0

Browns Defensive Ranks 

QB – 17th, 17.2    RB – 26th, 23.8    WR – 19th, 25.5   TE – 22nd, 9.0 

One of the biggest questions in this game is if A.J. Green plays and if we expect him close to being 100 percent. Andy Dalton is a nice play if Green is back in action as his price has dropped after two poor weeks. It lookalike a tough matchup but Cleveland has fallen off against quarterbacks since they’ve played so many snaps this year. I likely wouldn’t play Green in anything other than GPP but I really like Tyler Boyd if Green is back to taking over the majority of coverage. Boyd’s price plummeted as well after two sub-par weeks as the number one receiver for the Bengals. That’s not the most surprising outcome since Boyd probably isn’t suited to be the number one.

C.J. Uzomah could be a solid salary saver as well, since the Browns blitz quite often and tend to leave lanes open for tight ends. Lastly, Joe Mixon is under $7,000 against a defense that is getting gouged by backs through the air and ground, giving up over 1,600 total yards to backs so far with 13 touchdowns. He’s a slam dunk cash play and has some serious upside as well. I could see myself starting my cash lineup with both running backs in this game.

Cash Plays – Dalton, Mixon, Boyd(if Green is active)

GPP Plays – Green, Uzomah

Bengals Defensive Ranks 

QB – 31st, 23.3   RB – 32nd, 26.5    WR – 25th, 26.0   TE – 27th, 9.5 

We’re right back to Baker Mayfield as an excellent cash play since he’s had a  bye week to prepare and the Bengals are giving up the most points per game to quarterbacks. Mayfield has two games under his new offensive coordinator and is completing well over 70 percent of his passes and has thrown five touchdowns to just one interception. Who to pair him with(if anyone) is trickier. Jarvis Landry and David Njoku are at excellent prices but the game plan has changed these past two weeks to run based offense. Mayfield on threw the ball 20 times when they were in control of the last game against the Falcons and even when they were trailing the Chiefs, they still ran at a pretty good clip. The targets haven’t been there for either player lately.

Antonio Callaway could be a deep GPP play as the Bengals have surrendered the seventh most passing plays of 20+ yards. Nick Chubb could be one of the safer cash plays on the board this week. Since Carlos Hyde was traded, he has received no less than 18 touches a game and scored at least 14 DK points in three out of four. The Bengals are giving up the most rushing yards per game in football and tied for second in rushing touchdowns.

Cash Plays – Chubb, Mayfield

GPP Plays – Landry, Njoku, Callaway

DFS NFL – Seahawks at Panthers, O/U of 47.0, Panthers -3.0

Seahawks Defensive Ranks 

QB – 3rd, 15.1   RB – 13th, 18.1   WR – 20th, 25.7   TE – 5th, 5.5 

It might be a tougher matchup, but Cam Newton at $6,200 is silly. He’s had a reputation for inconsistency(mostly deserved through the years) but he hasn’t scored at least 18 DK points only one time so far. There’s no reason to not have him as a consideration this week. The target distribution is the difficult part. He’s coming off a massive game but DJ Moore saw his snaps actually drop this past week by about eight percent and his targets in the last four games are 6, 2, 5 and 8. Expecting a repeat is likely wouldn’t have been the best way to go, but now it appear as though Devin Funchess will miss this contest. That means a little over 21 percent of the Carolina targets just opened up and Moore has a great opportunity. He’ll be popular at his price tag. Seattle’s defense has been tough and despite being on the road, I’m not sure how much I want to get involved in Carolina’s offense. They’ve only given up the 11th fewest catches to RBs so that could potentially limit Christian McCaffrey and they’ve been stout against tight ends but in fairness, they really haven’t played a good one yet this season. Given the complexion of the offense and the pricing this week, Newton is the only cash play while the components of the offense are all GPP worthy.

Cash Plays – Newton, Moore

GPP Plays – McCaffrey, Olsen

Panthers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 26th, 19.8   RB – 8th, 16.3   WR – 17th, 23.7   TE – 32nd, 12.4 

The Seattle offense is somewhat simple – hand the ball off and hope Russell Wilson throws a bunch of touchdowns because this past game marked only the fourth time he’s thrown the ball more than 30 times in a game. The volume has never been there this season but suddenly the price tag makes us pay attention. Wilson is under $6,000 and in the conversation for a cash game play if you don’t like some of the other cheap options. $5,100 for Doug Baldwin is wildly tempting in a game where I think the Seahawks can score but it’s a strict GPP play. He’s coming off a 10 target game but he’d only had 12 in his previous three games combined so there’s not a safe volume to bank on. I wish I knew which tight end would score in this spot because the Panthers are dead last against tight end. Both Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson are candidates and last game saw Vannett play more snaps and eke out one more target. Another value play might well be Chris Carson. The Panthers have allowed the eighth fewest rushing yards in the league but have also faced the fourth fewest attempts. Since Seattle leads the league in rushing attempts on the season, Carson’s price alone puts him into consideration. I wouldn’t get too fancy with the Seattle offense in this spot.

Cash Plays – Wilson, Carson really on the edge but he’s dirt cheap

GPP Plays – Baldwin, Vannett, Dickson

DFS NFL – Jaguars at Bills, O/U of 37.0, Jaguars -3.0

Jaguars Defensive Ranks 

QB – 11th, 16.5    RB – 5th, 14.6   WR – 2nd, 18.4   TE – 28th, 9.8 

Sweet sassy molassey, this game is ugly with a capital U. Unless you like defense or volume based running backs, this game likely isn’t for you. On the Bills side, you can consider playing LeSean McCoy. Since Josh Allen will be back for this game, he at least brings a small rushing threat which helps Shady a little bit. The price tag of $4,200 certainly isn’t prohibitive and McCoy has at least 14 touches in all of his last three games. It’s still a very hard sell to play anyone from a horrible offense against a defense that is still performing well. There’s no player that I would risk even in GPP settings other than McCoy, although the Bills defense is a very solid play. The Jaguars are not a good offense and they’ll be on the road in this game.

Cash Plays – Bills D/ST

GPP Plays – McCoy

Bills Defensive Ranks 

QB – 1st, 12.9   RB – 21st, 20.6   WR – 1st, 17.5   TE – 11th, 6.5 

I’ve long since been a Blake Bortles guy for fantasy but things aren’t much prettier on this side of the ball. Buffalo has only allowed 14 passing touchdowns and under 120 yards rushing, which sometimes can be a boon for “The Snake”. He’s been so up and down that I won’t be using him on the road despite the sub-$5,000 price tag. However, there is a jaguar that I think is an excellent volume play and that’s Leonard Fournette. He’s clearly healthy since their bye week, recording 29 and 30 touches in the two games since then. He’s exceeded 22 DK points in both spots and is still under $7,000. The Bills have been a solid run defense to their credit, giving up under 100 yards per game but the Jaguars are a different animal when forcing the ball. That’s exactly what they’ll do in this spot and Fournette is way too cheap for his role.

Cash Plays – Fournette, Jaguars D/ST if you want to spend up

GPP Plays – None

DFS NFL – Raiders at Ravens, O/U of 42.5, -10.5

Raiders Defensive Ranks 

QB – 21st, 18.7   RB – 27th, 23.9   WR – 22nd, 25.8.   TE – 25th, 9.3  

Lamar Jackson is the new hotness and he’s certainly in play but he got ratcheted up and he’s not the auto cash play this week with the other options around him. The big question surrounding him is how many times can the Ravens honestly expect him to run? 27 running attempts is a good way to get your quarterback hurt in an NFL game so I would expect that number to take a hit this week. The flip side is Jackson hit 19.9 DK points without scoring a touchdown through the air or on the ground and that should change since the Raiders defense is so putrid. The other intrigue lies in the backfield. Little known Gus Edwards saw 62 percent of the snaps compared to 21 percent for Alex Collins last week and potentially swiped the job right out from Collins. Adding to the mystery of who gets the bulk of the work is Collins missed practice on Thursday. If he’s out, Edwards will be one of the best cheap options of the slate. The Raiders are allowing the second most rush yards and we saw what the Ravens just did to Cincinnati. As long as Jackson is the quarterback, there are no receivers in play for me as even Willie Snead is a little expensive for the 10 DK points he gives you.

Cash Plays – Jackson, Edwards(especially if Collins is out), Ravens D/ST

GPP Plays – None

Ravens Defensive Ranks 

QB – 12th, 16.7   RB – 1st, 13.3   WR – 6th, 20.4     TE – 17th, 7.6 

I really can’t get behind any players from Oakland. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to play people form a team making a cross-country trip while the offense is totally beat up and they aren’t good to start with. Baltimore boasts a very good defense and for me, even Jalen Richard isn’t in play. It’s at least possible that Doug Martin misses this game which gives Richard a safer floor for touches and puts DeAndre Washington on the map at minimum price. Still, the Ravens defense is so tough and even though the air, they’ve given up under 300 receiving yards to the running backs. That could suggest they can limit Richard even when the Raiders are behind. It might be a smaller slate but I will have limited to no exposure to the Raiders.

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Richard, Washington if no Martin 

DFS NFL – 49ers at Buccaneers, O/U of 54.0, Buccaneers -3.0

49ers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 24th, 19.4   RB – 17th, 19.2   WR – 20th, 25.7   TE – 14th, 6.9 

The revolving door continues for the Bucs at the quarterback position as Jameis Winston draws the start this week. Winston far too expensive for someone who could get yanked by halftime and that really is a bummer because as Graham Barfield points out, the Bucs QB has been a fantasy monster this season.

The chalkiest part of this game likely lies in Cameron Brate as a cheap tight end. With O.J. Howard on the shelf for the season and garnering a 12 percent target share, Brate is likely to see plenty of work to justify his price. The 49ers are a little better than average agains the position and I might pay up for the other side of this game. The only receivers I’d really want are Mike Evans and potentially DeSean Jackson, who is the cheapest he’s been all season on DK. He can break any slate and Chris Godwin dropped to 32 percent of the snaps in a game they were trailing last week. He’s a no-go for me until we see him on the field more often. I’m not really too excited to buy into the big game Peyton Barber had last week and feel it’s much more fluky than sustainable. There’s massive upside to this passing game but guessing the right receiver and sometimes even right quarterback is a dart throw at best.

Cash Plays – Brate

GPP Plays – Evans, Jackson, Winston, Barber

Buccaneers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 32nd, 23.5   RB – 25th, 23.8   WR – 30th, 28.2  TE – 31st, 10.8

The Tampa defense is so bad that Nick Mullins is in play. That’s right, Nick Mullins. Just like we thought in September. The Bucs have given up the fifth most passing yards and are tied for the most passing touchdowns and Mullins is plenty cheap enough to get the job done. I’m looking to pair him with George Kittle despite Kittle being the second highest priced tight end on the slate. He sits at a 22 percent target share, which is third among all tight ends and the Bucs are approaching 800 yards surrendered to the position. Since there aren’t a ton of high-priced backs, it’s a little easier than normal to pay for safety at a position that’s a pain every week. With Raheem Mostert on the IR, Matt Breida saw 60 percent of the snaps and 20 touches. That’s all you can ask for from a back like Breida and that will be plenty against a defense that has scuffled against every position on the field.  I wanted to play Marquise Goodwin and he’s still GPP viable but my goodness did he come up in price. He’s exceeded 12.5 DK points exactly once in eight games so far this season. The speed can show up any play but there’s no safety in deploying him, despite Tampa being dreadful.

Cash Plays – Mullins, Kittle, Breida

GPP Plays – Goodwin

DFS NFL – Giants at Eagles, O/U of 47.0, Eagles -6.0

Giants Defensive Ranks 

QB – 16th, 17.1   RB – 21.1  WR – 13th, 22.6   TE – 12th, 6.7 

This might seem very odd, but I’m not super into the Eagles offense this week aside from one player. Sure, Carson Wentz is a fine play at his price tag. I highly doubt he flops as badly as he did last week, or at all. Josh Adams represents potentially the best cheap running back of the day coming off a 10 touch day in New Orleans and is my favorite Eagle. The best part of it was Adams was at 54 percent of the snaps in the worst game script possible. Adding to the potential takeover of the Eagles backfield is Wendell Smallwood was down at 7 percent and Corey Clement was down at 27 percent. The snaps leave little doubt to who the lead dog is. My podcast partner says all you need to know about why we would play Adams against the Giants –

The pass catchers are all in play, especially Zach Ertz. The Giants have allowed the 11th most passing yards but only 14 passing touchdowns to this point. I might just take the $200 discount and better matchup and play Kittle more than Ertz. Alshon Jeffery hasn’t seen more than eight targets the past three weeks and almost always needs a touchdown to pay off. Perhaps the most disturbing thing about the Philly offense right now is Mike Groh saying in the media that it’s challenging to integrate Golden Tate. I might not be an NFL coach or anywhere close to it. Figuring out how to use Tate should not be that difficult. Maybe they should ask the Cowboys how they managed it with Amari Cooper.

Cash Plays – Adams, Wentz, Ertz

GPP Plays – Jefferey, maybe Tate

Eagles Defensive Ranks 

QB – 27th, 20.5   RB – 10th, 16.9   WR – 31st, 29.1   TE – 3rd, 4.7 

People who just look at the game logs might go running to Saquon Barkley, who just mashed the Eagles the first time around for almost 200 all-purpose yards. While Barkley is supremely talented, I’m not sure I’m paying that price tagging this spot. Generally, Philly has been very tough on the backs this season. With Saquon, the volume is guaranteed but there are better spots for cash this week in my opinion. Instead, give me all of the Odell Beckahm. Philly is giving up the seventh most yards and the second most fantasy points to WR in part due to a string of injuries to the secondary. Last week broke a string of six straight double-digit target games for Beckahm because Eli Manning only threw the ball 18 times. Beckham has only been under 15 DK points twice in his past eight weeks and the ceiling is incredible in this spot if he gets another 10+ targets. EvanEngram and Sterling Shepard are talented players but have a total of 12 targets between them the past two weeks. It’s hard to use them with any baseline expectation, despite the incredible matchup for them as well.

Cash Plays – Barkley, Beckham

GPP Plays – Manning, Engram, Shepard

DFS NFL – Patriots at Jets, O/U of 47.5, Patriots -10.5

Patriots Defensive Ranks 

QB – 25th, 19.7    RB – 16th, 18.5   WR – 12th, 22.6   TE – 29th, 10.4 

The Jets are fairly uninteresting other than maybe some potential punt plays. Maybe Elijah McGuire could be a nice pivot from Josh Adams. He’s got a little bit of juice in the passing game and the patriots linebackers have been susceptible this season. McGuire out-snapped Isaiah Crowell by 57-33 margin in the last game that they were trailing and I think most folks would assume they trail in this game considering they got stomped out by the lowly Bills before their bye week. The other possibly interesting player is Quincy Enunwa. He did see eight targets last week but tuned it into a terrible 18 yards on four receptions. The final line doesn’t look good but Enunwa is so cheap and if that target total comes close to repeating, he doesn’t need to do very much to pay off. Chris Herndon is at least 6.4 DK points in five straight but the target share is under 10 percent and even for a tight end, that really screams regression sooner than later. I will not be surprised if he drops a goose egg soon.

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – McGuire, Enunwa, Herndon

Jets Defensive Ranks 

QB – 13th, 16.7   RB – 20th, 20.2   WR – 23rd, 25.8   TE – 6th, 5.5 

When I first looked at this slate, I was pretty stunned that Tom Brady led the pack for quarterback pricing. Yes, the Jets are bad but there’s no reason for Brady to be highest on the board since he’s only been over 23 in DK points twice all season and has thrown  just eight touchdowns in his past six games. I look forward to him going bonkers after calling for a fade of him this weekend. Brady’s recent string of mediocre play would seem to limit some of the upside for the pass catchers if that trend continues. However, the flip side of this is the Jets defense just made Matt Barkley look competent. Both Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon can be used in cash since they have a relatively safer floor and if Brady comes out of the bye ready to roll, the Jets are allowing the third most points to receivers. It might be tempting to play Rob Gronkowski at one of the cheapest prices in recent memory but you can’t do it in anything but GPP’s. He’s battled injuries and still is sitting on two more red zone targets than I have. Sony Michel only got 11 carries last game but the script was terrible and the Titans are a good defense. I think that changes this week and he’s under $6,000 while before his injury, Michel had at least 14 touches for four straight weeks. To me, James White is way too expensive for a game the Pats should win easily and with Michel back in action.

Cash Plays – Edelman, Gordon, Michel

GPP Plays – Brady, Gronkowski

DFS NFL – Cardinals at Chargers, O/U of 44.0, Chargers -13.0

Cardinals Defensive Ranks 

QB – 2nd, 14.7   RB – 30th, 25.1   WR – 9th, 21.3  TE – 8th, 5.9 

I really expected a lot form the Cardinals offense last week at home against the Raiders. We certainly didn’t get that but David Johnson scored 19.4 DK points without reaching the end zone and dropped in price. That realistically shouldn’t happen and the Chargers have given up over 1,500 total yards to backs so far. What’s keeping their rank against backs lower is the fact they’ve only given up seven scores to the position. With Corey Liuget and Denzel Perryman both down for the season on the Chargers defense, this could be a sneaky spot to use Johnson again. Larry Fitzgerald took a big step back in targets last week and I don’t think I trust Josh Rosen enough on the road yet to play any element of the passing game. If Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk didn’t score all the touchdowns last week, Rosen and their stat lines would have been a disaster. The target percentage is solid at over 18 percent for both but the efficiency just isn’t there at all. I don’t think many will go back to Ricky Seals-Jones, who flopped massively in a great spot and I don’t blame people at all for that one.

Cash Plays – Johnson

GPP Plays – Fitzgerald, Kirk

Chargers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 8th, 16.1   RB – 19th, 19.3   WR – 8th, 21.0   TE – 13th, 6.9 

We pretty much know exactly what we get from the Chargers offense at this point. Melvin Gordon is the high-priced back to use this week since the Cardinals have surrendered over 1,700 total yards and 13 touchdowns to this point in the year. Melvin Gordon is going to get all the volume he can want, which includes a target share of well over 20 percent. I will also have a good amount of Keenan Allen, who likely doesn’t see Patrick Peterson on all that many routes this week. Allen is a little under 50 percent from the slot while Peterson is under one percent. Allen is on a hot streak with at least 57 yards or 1 touchdown on six receptions in three games since the bye week. Typically all of those marks have been even higher. The lack of high-priced backs makes constructing the roster different from normal weeks and Allen is a primary target for me. I won’t have much of Philip Rivers, if any at all. There are better matchups for a cheaper price tag so I don’t feel the need to force things.

Cash Plays – Gordon, Allen

GPP Plays – Rivers

DFS NFL – Dolphins at Colts, O/U of 51.0, Colts -8.0

Dolphins Defensive Ranks 

QB – 6th, 15.3   RB – 29th, 24.2   WR – 10th, 22.3   TE – 18th, 8.2 

It’s only a quibble of $100, but Andrew Luck is matchup proof, should have been the most expensive quarterback this week and is the MVP discussion. He would actually be the leader if not for Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees as he’s thrown at least three touchdowns in seven straight games. There is no reason to not play him since the offensive line is not letting him get sacked at all and he has T.Y. Hilton back in action and healthy, as evidenced by his massive game last week. Even though he will see some Xavien Howard, Hilton is still well within play. I still side with Jack Doyle due to snaps, routes run and the fact Eric Ebron didn’t see a target last week. Regression can come in a hurry sometimes. The best play from Indy not named Luck might be Marlon Mack. The Dolphins have just been crushed on the ground, giving up the third most rushing yards and over 500 receiving yards. Mack was still over 60 percent of the snaps last week even though Jordan Wilkins scored a touchdown.

Cash Plays – Luck, Mack

GPP Plays – Hilton, Doyle, Ebron, Colts D/ST

Colts Defensive Ranks 

QB – 18th, 17.6   RB – 14th, 18.2   WR – 7th, 20.7    TE – 20th, 8.7 

I really want no Dolphins players this week even though Ryan Tannehill is on track to make his return to the lineup. I’ll joke about the Frank Gore Revenge game as much as the next guy but I can’t play him at this stage of the season. He and Kenyan Drake split the snaps almost right down the middle the last game they played and Drake has 17 touches in two games. That’s a recipe for disaster. There is not a receiver is all that reliable, although if I had to pick one it would be Danny Amendola. He’s had at least six targets in five straight weeks and has somewhat of a floor on DK. The Colts defense has been better all season long and I can’t see why I would play Miami this week.

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Amendola, Drake

DFS NFL – Steelers at Broncos, O/U of 47.0, Steelers -3.0

Steelers Defensive Ranks 

QB – 20th, 18.5     RB – 9th, 16.4   WR – 11th, 22.5   TE – 19th, 8.7 

The Pittsburgh defense has really turned up the heat and I believe the options for the Broncos are fairly limited. Pittsburgh is giving up the eighth fewest rushing yards and last week saw both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman split carries once again, 11-7. Lindsay has clearly earned more work but if he can’t gain a significant edge in carries, I’d rather not use him in a spot against a tough run defense. The passing game is a serious risk as well.

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The Steelers lead the NFL in sacks and the Broncos have three backup offensive lineman playing. It should be noted they did an excellent job against the Chargers last week but the Chargers defense is banged up and it was Joey Bosa‘s first game back. Emmanuel Sanders is likely the best pass catcher to play with his 23 percent target share while Courtland Sutton has been the downfield threat. His average yards per catch is 20.0 yards but will Case Keenum have the time to find him? The Denver offense is best suited for GPP’s against a defense that hasn’t given up more than 21 points since Week 4.

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Sanders, Lindsay, Sutton

Broncos Defensive Ranks 

QB – 15th, 16.9    RB – 22nd, 20.9   WR – 15th, 23.0    TE  – 26th, 9.4 

All of the Steelers are in play for tournaments just like last week. They may have taken the scenic route but Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster all hit nice value when the clock hit zero last week. The fact they did it despite playing like hot garbage for 40 of 60 minutes is even more impressive. I might still be fairly salty with James Conner, but even he should have had about 21 points if not for some drops which included the go-ahead score with around 30 seconds to go.

Denver has given up five touchdowns to tight ends this season so Vance McDonald could make ’em dance again this week. As I said up top, the defense is a really strong option with the way they’re playing right now. I won’t do it in cash, but the entire offense is in play for tournaments despite any ranking for Denver’s defense and I’ll have a least one Pittsburgh stack.

Cash Plays – Steelers D/ST

GPP – Stack the offense how you like it

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