DraftKings NBA Picks November 23: In Brow We Trust

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DraftKings NBA Picks November 23: In Brow We Trust

The NBA has unleashed another monster slate on us today. This is the largest one I remember with all but Sacramento and Dallas taking the court. However, two of the games go early, so it’s “only” 12 games. Much like Wednesday, it’s going to be wild and crazy. I published two lineups for Wednesday as usual, but ended up playing six because I honestly didn’t know which way to go. Three of them placed, and one did very well.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($10,900): If you are going to build around a stud tonight, you almost have to get 6x value like Giannis and LeBron got on Friday. There is no obvious place for that, but Westbrook’s contributions in every category make him a strong candidate. Westbrook’s price is also a touch lower than normal right now due to his injury. Westbrook racked up 53.25 DraftKings points in his return despite only shooting 5-15 from the floor and scoring just 11 points. If his shot falls, Westbrook could be around 7v value instead of 6.

Kyrie Irving ($9,100): Irving has jumped to life since I traded him about ten days ago. Hey, if it helps me in DFS, I don’t care as much about a free league. Irving has topped 55 DraftKings points in three of those four games. I would be surprised if Atlanta and their porous defense held him under that. The only thing that stops Irving here is the coaching staff. He could rest down the stretch in a blowout.

Damian Lillard ($9,000): As expected, Lillard was clamped down on a bit by the Bucks. He should have free reign against a Warriors team that will still be without Curry and Draymond. This should still be a relatively close game, so if you are on the fence about either Kyrie or Dame, I would lean towards Dame.

Honorable Mention:

Jrue Holiday ($8,300): On a massive slate like this, the most common mistake is that most DFS players use guys that are just hitting value. With this many players in the pool, it’s okay to fade a guy that is planted at 5 or 5.5x value in GPP formats because someone else is at 6x or more. You can just about guarantee it. Take Holiday, for example. Wall made a statement that needed to be made after all the in-fighting in Boston. It’s a nice story, but Holiday is $400 cheaper and has at least 40 DraftKings points in ten of the last 11 games. That trumps Wall’s game on Wednesday. If you really want to get picky, Jrue outscored him on Wednesday anyway.

Kyle Lowry ($8,000): Lowry put up a whopping 55.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Wizards. Wall’s ole defense plays to Lowry’s strengths. We just saw Lowry post a triple double on Atlanta on Wednesday with a monster 17 assists. It wont be that way with Kawhi back, but the assists will still be there.

Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): Forget for a minute how solid and consistent Bledsoe has been this year. Instead, focus on how much revenge he’s going to want on a team that pretty much exiled him and dragged their feet trading him last season. I’ll bet Bledsoe is still more than a little torqued about that. Expect a big game from Bledsoe here.

Dark Horses:

Lonzo Ball ($5,100): Ball had his best game of the season in Cleveland on Wednesday, so the Lakers are hoping that he can do that at least until Rondo comes back. The job is Ball’s to lose right now. Utah really isn’t all that great against point guards, so Ball has a good shot at 6x value again here. However, he is about as unreliable as they come.

Trey Burke ($4,400): Burke was a monster, dropping 59 DraftKings points on the mighty Celtics on Wednesday night. This may be the biggest chalk of the night, but I think we have to go with it, especially if the Knicks come to their senses and start Burke. He pretty much single handedly beat the Celtics. Of course, on a team that’s actively trying to lose, that could make sure he stays on the bench.

Ryan Arcidiacono ($3,700): The Bulls PG situation with Dunn out continues to aggravate GPP players. However, Arcidiacono continues to see the most of the minutes, and they have been consistent minutes. As he showed on Wednesday, Arcidiacono can do a lot with those 30 minutes. Against Miami’s battered backcourt, Arcidiacono is a solid value play.

My pick: Bledsoe(PG), Burke(G); Ball(PG), Burke(UTIL)

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DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,700): I said that Harden wasn’t worth it on Wednesday. He proceeded to light up the Pistons for 72.25 DraftKings points. Guess what? Harden gets the Pistons again, though the series moves to Detroit tonight. That may keep Harden’s point total down some, but I doubt he drops below 6x value.

Bradley Beal ($7,700): Beal racked up 51.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Raptors this season. As with Wall, Beal had a big game on Wednesday with rumors swirling that Washington is going to blow up the roster. Whatever they do, the in-fighting has actually caused this team to come together for now. It will be hard to break it up if they continue to play well.

Honorable Mention:

Zach LaVine ($7,600): LaVine played through an illness on Wednesday to put up a strong game against the Suns. Now he gets a Heat team that is still without Dragic tonight. That should give LaVine a little more room to operate. He is about the only outside threat that the Bulls have. Expect Chicago to continue to lean on him.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,400): Mitchell now has at least 28 points and over 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The bad news is that the one in which he missed, Mitchell had a 10.25 DraftKings point dud against the Pacers. The going should be easier tonight against the Lakers, who have allowed the second most DraftKings points to shooting guards this year. Mitchell’s hot streak should continue.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($7,200): Where you stand on Burke’s huge game against the Celtics is going to affect how you view THJ here. Hardaway’s numbers have largely been a byproduct of the Knicks not having another reliable option on the perimeter. That is going to change if Burke keeps playing like he is and logging the minutes he does. Considering Hardaway put up 47.5 DraftKings points a little over a week ago against the same Pelicans, I tend to think Hardaway does just fine tonight no matter where Burke falls on the spectrum.

Dark Horses:

Gary Harris ($5,700): Harris continues to log big minutes, and his output doesn’t really seem to be affected by what those around him are doing. That can be a good and a bad thing. However, the good news here is that Harris’ worst outputs over the last two weeks have still been at 5x value. He seems to have found his stroke, and it worth a look here tonight.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,300): Lamb put up 29.75 DraftKings points on the Thunder the first time around this year. Lamb has done something this season that he has not been able to do so far in his career. He is putting up consistently good numbers. Lamb has only been below 25 DraftKings points once in the last nine games despite his minutes dropping down to 22 and 23 some night. He will get his no matter how many minutes he winds up with.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,300): Clarkson put up a strong line against the Lakers on Wednesday. He is about the only scorer Cleveland has going for them right now, especially on the second unit. His lack of big minutes does cap his upside, but Clarkson’s shot volume makes him worthy of a value play on a night where we have to hit with those again to have any chance of making money.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,500): KCP had another solid game off the bench with 23.75 DraftKings points against the Cavs. That was his fourth game of more than 20 DraftKings points in his last five. KCP is a sure 6-8x value so long as his price remains this low.

My pick: KCP(SG), Harden(SG), KCP(G)

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DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($10,400): This feels like a night to fade both LeBron and Giannis. I know, Giannis was a part of the winning lineup on Wednesday and had a huge game. Just keep in mind that he needs 57 DraftKings points in order to hit 5x value at his price. He has hit that mark only three times in the last ten games. LeBron has been good lately, but Utah is among the league’s elite defending either forward spot. I think I would rather defer to Durant’s massive usage with Draymond and Curry off the floor, even against a good team like the Blazers.

Paul George ($8,600): One of the more telling things of the Thunder post Westbrook’s return this time is to check George’s stats. PG still has 93.5 DraftKings points in two games with Westbrook back. His usage is still high enough to consider using when the matchup is right. Washington’s most sore spot is small forward, so this could be a night that George hits a ways above value.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Richardson ($7,300): Many bargain hunters jumped on various pieces of the Miami backcourt trying to find value with little to no success. A large part of that had to do with Richardson logging a massive 39 minutes against Brooklyn. What people aren’t talking about is just how good Brooklyn’s guard defense is. Ellington and McGruder could end up solid value plays against the Bulls, but I’m thinking that Richardson is really going to reap the rewards if he plays that many minutes again.

Khris Middleton ($7,200): Those checking the game logs will notice that Jimmy Butler torched Cleveland in the first meeting. However, if you are checking said logs, you should also realize that that was when he was still in Minnesota. I simply don’t trust Butler’s output in Philly right now. I would rather chase the consistency of Middleton. He usually doesn’t post huge games, but he still put up 40.25 DraftKings points despite Giannis’ huge night. He’s worth a play against Phoenix, though if the team helps feed the revenge narrative for Bledsoe, this could be a bust night for Middleton.

T.J. Warren ($6,500): Warren put up his seventh straight game of more than 30 DraftKings points on Wednesday. My only complaint on Warren is that his price is to the point that it gets harder and harder for him to hit 5x value, let alone 6x. We can probably do better in GPP’s, but I still like Warren in cash games.

Dark Horses:

Gordon Hayward ($5,600): The price on Hayward is still very attractive even if he continues to come off the bench. There is a couple of things to take away from the loss to the Knicks. First off, Hayward had his best game of the season, and the Celtics were willing to ride the hot hand. Most importantly, Hayward was contributing across all categories, not just scoring. Hayward is capable of a monster night against the Hawks for this price point.

Joe Ingles ($5,200): Small forward has been another sore spot defensively for the Lakers, and there are a lot. Ingles put up big numbers against the Kings on Wednesday, and the Lakers aren’t any better defending the two or the three. We are going to see a lot of open shots for Ingles. Expect him to hit a healthy amount of them and at least come close to 6x value.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,800): Bogdanovic has put up some really good numbers with Oladipo out. If Oladipo returns, I expect his production to taper off a little, but Bogdanovic was right around 5x value even with Oladipo in there. He seems to be safe no matter what if you want the upside attached to having Oladipo out, but think you may not be able to get back to check you lineup in time before this game locks. If you wind up with Bogdanovic in there and Oladipo still plays, you’re likely still in decent shape.

My pick: Warren(SF), Ingles(UTIL);N/A

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DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,600): Davis “only” put up 59.5 DraftKings points on the Sixers on Wednesday. What a bum! Go ahead. Stay off of him. Davis put up 76.75 DraftKings points against the Knicks earlier this year. I’ll enjoy that at lower ownership!

Blake Griffin ($9,200): Griffin looked to have a tough matchup on Wednesday as well. He went on to 56.75 DraftKings points. He also gets Houston again, and this time we shift to Detroit. I would be foolish not to mention Blake here, but I would be surprised if he blows value away by more than Davis does, even at $2,400 cheaper.

Honorable Mention:

Pascal Siakam ($6,400): My gripe about Siakam is just like it is about TJ Warren. Their outputs have been remarkably steady regardless of the opponent, but their prices have risen to the point where it is really hard to cultivate value from this play. Siakam is pretty much cash only for me at this point, especially playing a solid Wizards team.

Paul Millsap ($6,100): Millsap has been wildly inconsistent this year. Of course, it doesn’t help that Millsap’s minutes are almost never above 30 and sometimes trickle down to as far as the low 20’s. Such is the life of a Denver forward. Still, Millsap is capable of having huge games from time to time when the matchup is right. Orlando is pretty weak defensively up front, so this may be a place to take a chance.

Dark Horses:

Jabari Parker ($5,800): Parker had a monster game on Wednesday against the undersized Suns, so I will admit that a repeat performance is near the impossible mark on the probability spectrum. However, we did see Parker be more aggressive and more willing to pass in this game. Those are things that could carry over and could help him hit that elusive 6x value, even against a team like the Heat.

Marcus Morris ($4,900): Morris was huge against the Knicks in a losing effort on Wednesday even though his minutes weren’t really up from where they have been this year. Of course, this comes on the heels of three of his worst games of the season. Morris is a big risk due to his bench role, but he is still capable of big nights, especially if this one gets out of hand against Atlanta.

Jerami Grant ($4,400): Grant has outperformed starter Patrick Patterson in just about every way possible, but at this point, Grant seems to be too important to the second unit to move him to the starters. That’s just fine with me. Grant is still playing around 30 minutes off the bench, and spends a large part of that time as a key component of the second team. Grant is a very good value play once again.

My pick: Davis(PF), N/A

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DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,600): Embiid has back to back games of more than 60 DraftKings points, and was very close in the third. Is he matchup proof yet? We may find out here since Thompson is a pretty strong defensive center. I don’t really think it matters. Embiid is capable of dominating anyone. You also may be able to get a little lower ownership due to Davis’ enticing matchup.

Hassan Whiteside ($8,500): The fact that Whiteside’s knee was sore on Wednesday makes it hard for me to want to use him here. Balky knees have costed Whiteside some pretty big playing time last year. Keep an eye on this. If Whiteside is limited in any way, I’m not interested. However, if Whiteside is clear with no restrictions, he will really give the Bulls some problems.

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Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($7,500): Randle followed up a triple double with a strong 42.5 DraftKings point performance on Philly in a game in which he struggled with fouls. Randle is tearing up opponents right now. With the best center options going during the day, stacking the Pelicans front against the Knicks seems to be the way to go in the nightcap.

Clint Capela ($7,300): Capela was huge against Drummond on Wednesday, going for 54.75 DraftKings points. That was Capela’s second straight 50+ DraftKings point game, and he could be in for a third against Drummond tonight.

Steven Adams ($7,100): Is Steven Adams Russ proof? Despite the return of Westbrook, Adams has racked up 78.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. This is a good matchup for Adams regardless of the status of Dwight Howard. Capela has more upside and so does Randle, but Adams could be a lower owned alternative and should still hit 6x value.

Serge Ibaka ($6,200): Ibaka has been remarkably consistent just like frontcourt mate Pascal Siakam. Again, that consistency at this price relegates Ibaka to cash only as well. You can stack the Pelicans front in GPP formats and stack the Raptors front in cash.

Dark Horses:

Derrick Favors ($4,700): This is another spot to like Favors considering how bad the Lakers are up front. Gobert is a strong play as well, but his consistency often has Gobert around the same output no matter the opponent. There is nothing wrong with chasing the upside of Favors here.

Noah Vonleh ($4,300): That’s back to back 40+ DraftKings points games from Vonleh against good fronts in both Portland and Boston. He should have no issues coming close to that against New Orleans so long as the Knicks keep giving him run. I’m jumping on board Vonleh as a strong value. This game looks like a great game to stack the entire thing as well.

Dewayne Dedmon ($4,200): I’m a bit nervous against Boston, but Dedmon continues to put up strong numbers, and now his minutes are starting to rise. After seeing what Vonleh did to Boston, I’m willing to roll the dice with Dedmon if I need even more salary relief than Vonleh can provide.

My pick: Capela(C), Vonleh(F); Capela(C), Randle(PF), Vonleh(UTIL)

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