Why Phil Mickelson will beat Tiger Woods in The Match
The Match, beginning on Friday at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas, is finally a chance for Phil Mickelson to get the better of Tiger Woods.
Phil Mickelson has only ever expressed admiration for Tiger Woods, but Friday at Shadow Creek his only goal will be to defeat his rival.
The Match: Tiger vs. Phil, a one-on-one match play duel with $9 million on the line, tees off at 3 p.m. in Las Vegas. Both Mickelson and Woods say there will also be side bets during the round, with a $200,000 wager already on the line that Mickelson birdies the first hole.
The round is an opportunity for the two long-time adversaries to go head-to-head and get bragging rights over the other. For most of the past 20 years, its been Woods who’s consistently gotten the better of Mickelson.
Mickelson can change that history on Friday. In many ways, The Match fits his character and playing style more than Tiger’s. These three reasons are why Mickelson will emerge victorious and $9 million richer on Friday.
1) The chance to finally beat Tiger
The $9 million prize aside, what may be even more important for Mickelson is The Match gives him a chance to finally get the better of Woods. Woods said earlier this week that he’s been “in Phil’s head for 20 some odd years,” and that’s mostly accurate. Woods has 14 career majors to Mickelson’s five, 80 PGA Tour titles to 43, and three U.S. Opens to Mickelson’s none.
Mickelson can change that on Friday. Beating Tiger will give him the bragging rights he’s wanted for two decades. The chance to say he beat Tiger one-on-one, and carry that around with him in the future is a factor not lost on him this week.
“Its great to win the $9 million,” Mickelson said at their Tuesday press conference. “I just don’t want to lose to him and give him the satisfaction. The bragging rights are what’s going to be even worse than the money. Every time I see you I want to be able to rub it in. I want to sit in the Champions Locker Room at Augusta and talk smack.”
One time Mickelson did defeat Woods still looms large in his memory. At the 1998 Nissan Open, Mickelson beat Woods in a practice round and afterwards put up photocopies of Tiger’s $100 bills in the locker room. If he wins on Friday, Mickelson promises to do more than that.
“I’m not the best guy to lose to. I tend to kind of rub it in,” he said. “Friday, if and when I win, I will continue to rub it in a lot worse than I did in 1998.”
“A lot worse,” he added.
2) Gambling brings out the best in Mickelson
Even with the large prize awaiting the winner, the side bets each says they will make during the match only plays into Mickelson’s hands. His prowess in Tuesday money matches on the PGA Tour have become legendary. When there’s money on the line, Mickelson’s not a player to lay down and let his opponent take it.
One story from 2016 shows just how competitive Mickelson can get in these matches. Playing a round with then 17-year-old Australian amateur Ryan Ruffels, Mickelson reportedly told the teenager “I don’t wake up this early to play for any less than $2,500.” Ruffels ended up winning $5,000 off Mickelson that day. As he recalls it, “I was a few down through nine but then I birdied six of my last seven to win by one shot and took his money, so that was pretty cool.”
Of course, losing to a teenager didn’t sit well with Mickelson, especially after Ruffels continued to talk publicly about it. “He’s young, and he’s got some thing to learn,” Mickelson said later.
The side betting between Mickelson and Woods has already begun. Mickelson offered Tiger a $100,000 that he would birdie the first hole. Tiger then offered to double it. So before any shots are played, there is a $200,000 bet at stake. Both players promise to place side bets throughout the match, with Mickelson saying he’s willing to go as high as $50,000 for making a putt.
Given his competitive spirit, that only works to Mickelson’s advantange.
3) Match play fits his game
The match play aspect of Friday plays right into Mickelson’s favor. It’s a format that doesn’t penalize wayward tee shots and mistakes with big numbers. Mickelson, the consummate risk-taker, can play knowing even a bad shot will only cost him one hole at worst.
The fact that Mickelson doesn’t have to worry as much about poor driving as he does during a regular PGA Tour event will be an advantage on Friday. He ranked 189th in driving accuracy last season, fifth worst on tour. He was just 154th in strokes gained: off the tee.
When Mickelson does get the ball in play and on the green, he’s capable of making birdies. He ranked 13th in strokes gained: putting and strokes gained: approach to green in 2018 (Tiger was even better, third, in the later category).
Making birdies is something Mickelson believes is vital at Shadow Creek. Especially knowing it’s only one round, he says the player who’s better at converting their opportunities will win on Friday.
“I think we both have it in mind that this is a sprint, not a marathon,” he said. “We’re not playing four days, we’re playing one. We’ve got to come out on fire. There’s a lot of risk-reward here, a lot of water, a lot of trouble. But there’s also a lot of birdie opportunities. So I think the person who wins is probably going to shoot seven, eight-under par.”
The Match begins at 3 p.m. EST on Friday and is available on pay-per-view for $19.99.