College Football picks against the spread November 24, 2018

Our biggest college football weekend of the season finishes off with a 45 game Saturday. We had a total of 64 FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. This is the last big weekend of the year, so let’s make the best of it!

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For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! My best week of the season puts me back above .500 on the season at 305-290. I also had my biggest point gain in a single week since I’ve been assigning points with 49 last week. I not have 25 on the season and 56 in my point bank overall. I still haven’t tallied up last week’s scores, but I’m close. They should be up by the morning.

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 13!

(4)Michigan(-4.5) at (10)Ohio State(5):

I understand the whole rivalry deal, but Michigan is tired. Tired of losing to those bullies to the south. This is revenge. Big time revenge. Wolverines by double digits.

Georgia Tech at (5)Georgia(-17.5)(2):

This looks high. The Bees are an option team, and a pretty damn good one. That means ball control. Georgia is also an offense that likes to take their time and pound away at you. The game pace isn’t conducive to a high scoring game. Georgia wins, but doesn’t cover.

(11)Florida at Florida State(3):

I suppose the Seminoles could keep this within a touchdown, but it would take a really good game for them to do it. Those have been few and far between in Tallahassee this year. That’s the thing though. This game is in Tallahassee. There’s a chance, but not a good one. Give me Florida.

(20)Syracuse at Boston College(-6.5)(4):

I picked the Orange straight up in pick em, so being essentially gifted a touchdown is good with me. I’ll raise the bet a little. Syracuse straight up.

Marshall(-2.5) at Florida International(1):

There is a reason this is my one point pick in Pick Em. I have FIU there, but it could really go either way. I’m thinking of flipping to Marshall, but for now, I’ll keep the Panthers.

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech(-10.5)(2):

I normally wouldn’t have guessed this to be a double digit game, but the Hilltoppers have been terrible this year. Give me La Tech.

Baylor vs. Texas Tech(-5.5) at Jerry World(4):

This line is all over the place right now. One place has it all the way up to -7. Two still have it at -4.5. I get it, but then again, I don’t. What makes anyone think that Baylor has the defense to stop this offense? I don’t see it. Give me Texas Tech.

Purdue(-3.5) at Indiana(3):

I’ve seen enough of the Indiana defense to know they are in trouble. Give me Purdue, maybe by double digits.

Navy at Tulane(-7.5)(2):

I get it, but I’m still not sure that Tulane’s defense can play this strong of a game. Can they stop the run for more than three hours straight? I have my doubts, but I’ve seen nothing from Navy that says they can win this. I’ll ride the Wave!

North Carolina State(-6.5) at North Carolina(4):

This can be a hotly contested game and still have the Heels lose by a touchdown. I really like that the half is on our side. I’ll take the Wolfpack.

Wake Forest at Duke(-10.5)(3):

This is too many. Wake’s receivers are big and they can catch. Duke still wins, but not by more than 10.

Old Dominion(-7.5) at Rice(3):

You know, I swore these guys off like two months ago, but I think I have to take the Monarchs here. Yeah. Give me ODU.

New Mexico State at Liberty(-7.5)(2):

If worse plays at bad, then bad should still win by double digits, right? I just wanted to make sure my math was right. Give me the Flames.

Georgia Southern(-10.5) at Georgia State(1):

These two teams really don’t like each other. In the short time they have both been FBS schools, Georgia State has won a couple they had no business winning. I’m not saying they win, but I will say if Georgia Southern wins, it’s by a touchdown or less. Give me State.

Wyoming(-6.5) at New Mexico(2):

Wyoming looks like the better team, and not just by a little bit. Give me Wyoming.

Troy at Appalachian State(-10.5)(2):

That’s quite a few points considering the quality of the Troy team. I tend to think this one stays within single digits. Give me Troy.

Southern Mississippi(-13.5) at UTEP(2);

It doesn’t really matter where this game is. UTEP is just as bad at home as on the road. Give me the Eagles.

Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe(-2.5)(1):

There is no way I would touch this one. When in doubt, go with the home team. Give me the Warhawks.

UAB(-2.5) at Middle Tennessee State(2):

This is about where I expected the line to be, and the reason why I don’t have a lot on this game in Pick Em. I still think it stays close, but UAB pulls it out. I’ll take the Blazers.

Stanford(-6.5) at UCLA(2):

At this point, you would be lucky to find this line under 7. It’s at 7 in all but one place. It’s -6.5 in two others. I’ll go Stanford, but at 7.5, I’m far less confident in it.

Auburn at (1)Alabama(-24.5)(2)

I have no faith in Auburn, but this is a rivalry game. Auburn isn’t going to win this game, or likely even come close, but I don’t think they get blown out either. Give me Auburn.

Maryland at (12)Penn State(-13.5)(2):

I’m not really impressed with either defense. McFarland ran wild last weekend, and could do the same here. I’ll take the Turtles.

Illinois at (19)Northwestern(-16.5)(1):

Illinois has made a living of getting blown out in conference play, but here’s the thing: Northwestern doesn’t really blow anyone out. They have also clinched a slot in the Big Ten(14) title game, so don’t expect anything too crazy here. Northwestern wins, but doesn’t cover.

(24)Pittsburgh at Miami(FL)(-5.5)(2):

This line is a mess. Everyone has Miami favored, but the spreads are anywhere from 4.5 to 7.5. That’s unusual this close to kickoff. The volatility doesn’t bother me all that much because I think I like the veteran Pitt offense straight up anyway. It’s all a matter of how many points to bet.

Arizona State(-1.5) at Arizona(5):

The Arizona defense is one of the worst in a conference that includes Oregon State, Colorado, and and Oregon. That’s saying something. I trust the Arizona State offense much more than the Arizona defense. The Territory Cup is headed to Tempe. Give me Sparky!

Minnesota at Wisconsin(-11.5)(2):

We have seen Minnesota play well and play horribly, all within the span of about two weeks all season long. I tend to think that Wisconsin will just run the ball 60 times if they have to. That will be enough to cover this. Give me the Badgers.

SMU(-2.5) at Tulsa(3):

I just don’t think that the Tulsa offense is good enough to keep up here. SMU’s offense is playing well right now, and Tulsa can’t really stop them. Give me the Ponies.

Temple(-30.5) at Connecticut(2):

Ouch! That’s a lot, but UConn may not score. Give me the Owls.

Arkansas State(-11.5) at Texas State(4):

This is way too low. The Bobcat defense has been terrible. Red Wolves by 20 or so.

Rutgers at Michigan State(-26.5)(2):

Yeah, not with this offense. Ugly game, and Sparty still wins easily, but I’ll be shocked if they score 27, let alone cover it. Give me Rutgers.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt(-2.5)(4):

Vanderbilt shouldn’t have much of a problem trying to cover this. Tennessee has played better lately, but they still aren’t that good. Give me Vandy.

Charlotte at Florida Atlantic(-17.5)(2):

This looks a touch high to me. Maybe just by that half. Given the choice, FAU would rather run it on you and let you try to figure it out. That’s the way this goes. Give me Charlotte.

South Carolina at (2)Clemson(-26.5)(3):

Again, this is way too many in a rivalry game. If the Gamecocks were struggling on defense, then maybe I buy this, but they aren’t. Clemson wins big, but not this big.

(15)Kentucky(-16.5) at Louisville(1):

Let me preface this by saying that Louisville’s defense is terrible, and the offense isn’t much better. However, Kentucky’s offense outside of Benny Snell is rather horrible as well. Kentucky is going to win. The only question is how much. Against my better judgment, give me Kentucky.

Kansas State at (25)Iowa State(-12.5)(3):

The Kansas State defense made a statement against Tech last week. Iowa State was lost in the first half without Montgomery, but it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. I’ll go with Iowa State at home. Their offense is far more balanced than Texas Tech.

San Jose State at Fresno State(-31.5)(2):

Lots of points, but it’s definitely warranted. Give me Fresno.

Colorado at California(-12.5)(2):

This looks high. I don’t think the Cal offense is that good, and Colorado is finally back at full strength. Cal wins, but doesn’t cover.

North Texas(-24.5) at UTSA(1):

I know that the Mean Green are capable of covering this. So I guess the safe thing to do is to take North Texas and lower the bet. Give me UNT.

(7)LSU at (22)Texas A&M(-3.5)(5):

Vegas is giving LSU points? Sign me up! Tigers straight up!

(3)Notre Dame(-11.5) at USC(4):

I haven’t seen enough growth from the Trojans, especially on offense, to pick them for this upset. It would take a hell of a game for USC to stick around, and I’m not sure Daniels has it in him right now. Next year, maybe, but not now. Give me the Irish.

Oklahoma State(-5.5) at TCU(4):

It’s true that the Cowboys haven’t looked all that good on the road. TCU hasn’t looked good anywhere. Give me the Pokes.

Nevada(-13.5) at UNLV(3):

The Rebels are playing better lately, this is a rivalry game, and they are at home. I don’t think Nevada covers. Hell, they may not even win. Give me UNLV.

BYU at Utah(-11.5)(2):

Here we have another war. The War yesterday wasn’t quite what we were expecting. Oregon won the Civil War running away. The Holy War promises to be much more interesting. Utah has the horses to cover this, but I don’t think they will. This game almost always ends up close. Give me BYU.

(21)Utah State at (23)Boise State(-2.5)(3):

I almost think this whole Boise thing to mid majors is mostly in their heads. On paper, we may even say Utah State is the better team. Can they get over the mental block? I think the Aggies can. I picked them in Pick Em, and I’m taking them here too.

Hawaii at San Diego State(-17.5)(3):

Right. The Aztecs aren’t beating anyone by that much. Give me the Rainbows.

Next: ESPN College Pick Em Picks Week 13

I only had eight one pointers on the massive 64 game slate, but I made up for that with a season high 25 two pointers. I have 17 three points bets and a season high nine four pointers. I went with five five pointers again. Let’s have a strong big week finish!