FanDuel NFL Week 12 GPP Pivots: In Russ we Trust

FanDuel NFL DFS:  Week 12 GPP Pivots

Welcome back to the Week 12 edition of FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots! I’ve been grinding out 7 NBA articles a week these days but I still love writing about NFL once a week.  Thanks to everyone who read last week, I had such a strong reception in the DFS community that I wanted to get back to making this a weekly column for the rest of the season.

As always, I’m looking to give our loyal FantasyCPR readers some GPP pivots off the chalk for your Week 12 Fanduel NFL DFS contests!  We saw the chalk hit hard last week, and those weeks will happen, but I think that makes this a great week to get contrarian again since we could see people load up on the chalk even more.

I’m going to go position by position and try to identify the chalk plays at each position and then recommend my preferred pivot. The goal here is to try to find a lower-owned play that outperforms the chalkier play, giving you leverage over the field in your GPPs.

I use a variety of sources to identify ownership, and by this point in the week we start to see the DFS community start to consolidate ownership around 2-3 plays at every position, leaving a number of solid players in good spots overlooked.

Remember, you don’t need to build an entire roster of contrarian plays! What you need to find is the low-owned player or stack that goes off and shoots you ahead of the competition. Pairing low-owned plays with chalkier plays is usually the best strategy when making those GPP rosters.

Chalky plays are usually good plays, but not they fail just about as often as they succeed. NFL, like every other sport, is filled with variance and anything can happen on any given Sunday! (Imagine I read that in my Al Pacino voice!)  Let’s get into the picks this week!

FanDuel NFL DFS: Quarterback

Chalk: Andrew Luck, Lamar Jackson

Pivot: Russell Wilson (7700)

There’s been little to no buzz around the industry at all around Russell Wilson and I am seeing his projected ownership at less than 5%.  In his last six games, Russ has thrown 16 TDs and only 2 interceptions and always brings some upside with his rushing ability. He’s playing at a high level right now and he’s the catalyst that makes this Seahawk offense go.

The matchup here is much better than people realize, as the Panthers have the 25th ranked pass defense in the NFL and have been exposed the last three weeks against Tampa, Pittsburgh and even Detroit.

I like taking some chances with Russ here even on the road, as I think Carolina will stuff the run game and force Wilson into a lot of passing situations. The biggest knock on using Wilson is usually the lack of passing attempts, but I think we see that number in the upper 30’s on Sunday instead of the 20’s as the game script could call for a passing-heavy attack.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Running Back

Chalk: Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Melvin Gordon

Pivots: David Johnson (7900), Joe Mixon (7300)

This is the third week in a row that I have written up Johnson, and this week he’s more likely to be contrarian than last week as I’m seeing him projected under 10%.  The matchup is not ideal against San Diego this week, but Johnson is only one of a few “bell-cow” backs in the league and he’s game script proof due to his heavy involvement in the passing game.

With Arizona being heavy underdogs, Johnson will likely be overlooked, but the Chargers run defense is trending in the wrong direction, dropping to the middle of the pack after a strong start. Even if the Cardinals are trailing throughout, Johnson should get a steady diet of dump off passes.

He’s had 28 and 26 touches in the last two weeks, and I think Arizona is likely going to continue to feature him as often as possible.

There are six backs projected ahead of Joe Mixon this week, but I absolutely love him and I think he’s really underpriced this week. He’s had a few rough weeks as the Bengals got blown out by the Saints and then he had a tough matchup with the Ravens.

This week he gets the Browns and their 26th ranked run defense. I see Mixon getting 15-20 carries with another 4-5 receptions this week and I think he can match the production of some of the chalkier backs at a much cheaper price and lower ownership.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Wide Receiver

Chalk: Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Julian Edelman

Pivots: Josh Gordon (6800), Doug Baldwin (6500)

I’m looking at Josh Gordon as a pivot off his own teammate Julian Edelman and to lock in some exposure to the healthy team total that New England has on the road against the Jets.  Both Edelman and Gordon were targeted 12 times last week, but Edelman secured 9 of his targets for a 100-yard receiving day, while Gordon only caught 4 of his targets for 81 yards.

Edelman is the safer cash game target, but Gordon has the kind of big-play potential and slate breaking upside we are looking for this week. He has the most air yards of any New England receiver since he joined the team, meaning he’s getting targeted on deep routes. If he gets loose behind the Jets secondary, it could mean a big day for him and your FanDuel lineup.

Doug Baldwin finally broke out last week with 7 catches for 52 yards and a touchdown and could have had a second TD, but Wilson missed him open in the end zone.  Slot receivers are who we want to use against the Carolina defense, so teammate Tyler Lockett is also in play here and would be my preferred pivot if Baldwin, who’s questionable, ended up sitting out.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Tight End

Chalk: Cameron Brate, George Kittle

Pivot: Jeff Heuerman (5400)

The Broncos host the Steelers on Sunday afternoon and are slight underdogs at home.  The one glaring weakness of the Steeler defense is the tight end, as their zone coverage often leaves the short underneath routes open. If the Steelers do take a lead early, we could see Denver forced to pass more than they want to, meaning more targets for their trusty tight end.

Heuerman is not a household name but has seen his involvement in the Broncos offense increase lately.

He has been targeting four or more times in seven straight games and had a massive breakout game two weeks ago against Houston when he snagged 10 balls for 83 yards and a TD.  All we really need here is 4-5 catches and TD and you’re sitting pretty while one or both of the chalk tight ends in the Tampa-San Fran game could bust.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Defense

Chalk: Buffalo, Baltimore

Pivot: Indianapolis (4400)

This might be going out on a limb here, but it’s a tough week for picking a defense. FanDuel has priced defenses up and there’s not exactly any real spots to fall in love with. Baltimore is 5k and I simply won’t spend that much cap on a defense. Buffalo projects to be popular, but the Jacksonville offense looked much improved last week (at least through the first three quarters).

So why Indianapolis? Well, if you look at their game logs they’ve been either very good or very bad most weeks. I think this a week where they show up and hopefully we can a solid performance out of them.

They’re at home, where they usually play much better, favored by more than a touchdown and they’re facing one of the statically worst offenses in the NFL. Andrew Luck and the offense are rolling, and that means the Colts defense could see a lot of passing downs from the Dolphins offense as they try to play catch up.

More passing downs = more sacks and potential interceptions. Go ahead and roll out the Colts this week at sub 10% ownership and see if they can’t create a few turnovers or even the coveted defensive touchdown!

FanDuel NFL DFS: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

I really love some of the builds I’ve been making with this player pool and I want to stress that you don’t need to have a low-owned player in every roster spot. Some of the names I mentioned as chalk, I will be playing alongside some of the pivots that I wrote up.

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Stacking is important in any DFS sport, but especially in NFL DFS. I try to build my QB-WR stack first in many cases and then fill in around it.  If you’re good, you can build in multiple mini-stacks into the same lineup so that you have several different plays that are highly correlated.

Here’s one way to build a lineup with some of the players I wrote up. Remember that the sample lineup is purely for illustrative purposes and it’s not necessarily a plug-and-play lineup. I just like showing how the builds come together to give you an idea of how to start building yours.

QB: Russell Wilson (7700)

RB: David Johnson (7900)

RB: Joe Mixon (7300)

WR: Doug Baldwin (6500)

WR: T.Y. Hilton (7500)

WR: Josh Gordon (6800)

TE: Jeff Heuerman (5400)

FLEX: Matt Breida (6400)

DEF: Indianapolis (4400)

That’s all I got guys, I hope this article helps you build some GPP winners this weekend. As always, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with questions and comments and continue to look for in-depth NBA and NFL analysis from me and the rest of the FantasyCPR team!