NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday November 25
Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Saturday Night’s NBA DFS scores were some of the highest we have seen this season with winning GPP scores pushing towards 400 on FantasyDraft as a result of three players – Giannis, KAT and KD all going for 70+ fantasy points. In total, nine players went for 50+ fantasy points on the slate which drove scores and cash lines well over 300 which is where we normally see them on a nightly basis!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Six Game Sunday Slate:
With so many people focused today on building Fantasy Football lineups, the usual NBA DFS crowd may be a bit distracted which could give those of us willing to put in the time, a nice advantage on this 6PM EST Sunday six game slate.
The big injury news we need to watch is the status of Jimmy Butler who is officially questionable for tonight’s tilt with the Brooklyn Nets. Now this Sixers/Nets game on the surface may not be one that jumps off the page with the second lowest pace of any game on tonight’s slate but with Butler potentially out, that could open up some big time fantasy performances on the Philly side of this game.
We have not yet seen Butler technically miss a game since being acquired by the Sixers but we do have a one game sample size of what the Sixers look like without Butler and with Covington/Saric out which was the first game after the trade against Miami when none of the traded players were available.
In that game Joel Embiid ($19.7K) had a 35.4% usage rate and put up 1.75 FP/M on his way to 64 fantasy points and now gets arguably the best match-up in NBA DFS – centers against Brooklyn. JJ Redick ($9.8K) had a 35% usage rate in that game as the clear second option and dropped 31 fantasy points which is a number he has hit in four of his last seven games.
Ben Simmons ($17K) was a relative disappointment in that game with just 32 fantasy points but this Simmons is coming into this game with 45+ fantasy points in four straight and put up 46 FPTS against Brooklyn the last time they played.
Wilson Chandler ($7.3K) has played 30+ minutes in three straight games and although the fantasy production has not been there, any time you get a punt play with this much guaranteed playing time, he is going to be on my radar. With Markelle Fultz completely out of the rotation, we could see Landry Shamet ($6.1K) get the start for Butler if he sits and this is where you can start to build yourself a really interesting stars and scrubs lineup. If there is one thing we know with the Sixers – they play their starters 30+ minutes a night and if you can get two starters in Chandler/Shamet who are going to cost you less than $7K/player and are both getting 30+ minutes, it makes paying up for Embiid/Simmons and basically anyone else you want a total breeze!
NBA DFS – Stack the Nets?
Any time I find myself putting 3-4 guys from one team into my NBA DFS line-up, you are more or less planting your flag that this game stays close and as a result, a game stack needs to be considered. The issue here is the opposition is the Brooklyn Nets, a team that is the NBA DFS equivalent of spinning a roulette wheel and hoping you land on the right players to get minutes that night.
D’Angelo Russell ($14.4K) is going to be the first person everyone looks to on the Nets side but boy, that price is aggressive for a guy who has not cracked 30 fantasy points in either of his last two games. Conversely, that price point and the game log will likely lead people to that same reaction so there is the chance here to get him at lower ownership and we know he has 50+ fantasy point upside. Over the last two weeks, with Caris LeVert off the court, D-Russ has a team high 33% usage rate while putting up 1.2 FP/M – the ultimate GPP boom or bust play on this slate.
If you look at the usage and fantasy production over that time frame, it becomes tough to pay $3K more for D-Russ than Spencer Dinwiddie ($11.3K) who has a shade lower usage with similar FP/M production and has 30+ fantasy points now in three straight games.
Jarrett Allen ($11.1K) is arguably the safest play on the Nets side as they simply have no other interior options and with Embiid on the court, Allen is going to be needed for all the minutes he can handle. In their first meeting this season, Allen went for 35 fantasy points in less than 30 minutes of court time and it seems like his price never moves on FantasyDraft.
Don’t look now but Allen Crabbe ($7.7K) is back chucking shots for the Nets and has played 28+ minutes in four straight games. Over the last two games in particular, Crabbe has shot the ball 26 times with TWENTY three-point attempts and put up 40+ fantasy points just days ago versus Dallas.
Really so much of this depends on the status of Jimmy Butler – on both sides of this game. If Butler is out, it pushes Embiid and Simmons to near must plays and gives massive boosts to value plays like Chandler, Redick and Shamet. It also takes one of the best individual defenders off the floor for the Sixers which means wing players like Crabbe get a big time boost on the other side. So in summary – we need to know if General Soreness is playing or not.
NBA DFS – Pivot to Hawks and Hornets:
No game has a higher Vegas total or a faster projected pace than this Hornets/Hawks game so calling it a pivot may be a bit mis-leading as it could very well become the chalk game to attack especially when you consider how concentrated the player pool is here.
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On the Hornets side, it basically becomes Kemba Walker ($18.5K) or bust – the man is the entire Hornets offense, put up 50+ the last time these two teams met and is one of the best plays on the entire slate – it is just that simple. The only other play on the Hornets side I would consider is Cody Zeller ($8.3K), a cash game staple recently as he racks up 3x value (20-25 points) on a nightly basis and should be needed against a healthy Atlanta front line with Dedmon and Collins both back for the Hawks.
The question for me is what Hawks can we run it back with as the Hawks could be without Kent Bazemore as he is questionable after leaving Friday’s game with an ankle injury. Trae Young ($12.1K) is just two games removed from a 50+ fantasy outing and put up 35 fantasy points the first time he faced Kemba. With this being a pace up spot with a high total, stacking Kemba and Young is a great way to start both cash games and GPP’s on this short slate.
John Collins ($10.1K) hit the 30 minute mark against Boston and this is a spot where the price has not caught up to the minutes/talent and I am happy to jump on here before he has his monster game. Over the last two years, Collins has been a FP/M + producer and if he is getting 30+ minutes against this under-sized Hornets front court, then I think he becomes a cash game lock with GPP upside.
For those interested – I have created a daily FREE Picks and Pivots readers contest on FantasyDraft – click here to join and let’s see who can take down today’s slate!
Other Slate News and Notes:
- Keep an eye on the status of Donovan Mitchell who is questionable to play which would push someone like Ricky Rubio into an elite play in a pace up spot against the Kings. The Jazz are all priced reasonably on FantasyDraft (12-13k) and if Mitchell is out, the usage and fantasy boost the remaining starters get puts them in play as an interesting GPP stack.
- The Clippers/Portland game is the late night hammer with tip-off three hours after the start of the slate and I could see where a stud like Damian Lillard is over-looked as a result of the late start time. If Jimmy Butler is ruled IN, I will likely find a way to pivot off the Sixers/Nets and work more of this game into my core build as outside of Dame, the rest of this game is all priced in the mid-tier which makes it an easy game stacking option
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