Ohio State made a big statement with an emphatic win over Michigan but beating Northwestern to win the Big Ten won’t guarantee them anything.
The Ohio State Buckeyes came into rivalry weekend with plenty of questions. They had just come off a hard fought victory over Maryland, and with Michigan soaring, most people believed they didn’t have enough to beat the Wolverines, even in Columbus.
It turned out the Buckeyes had saved their best performance for their longtime rival. They dominated the Wolverines in every facet of the game. The defense shut down the run, their special teams blocked a punt, and quarterback Dwayne Haskins threw for five touchdowns. They dropped 62 points on Michigan, the most the Wolverines have ever allowed in a game.
That win puts them right back in playoff contention and gets them to the Big Ten championship game against Northwestern next weekend, a game where they will be favored by a significant margin.
There is still bad news despite the win. Even if they defeat Northwestern and win the Big Ten championship, they are not guaranteed a spot in the playoff.
The Buckeyes’ performance will vault them over a few teams, but they will likely not be any higher than six. The top four with a week to go will most likely be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia. After that, there will be a debate, but the Oklahoma Sooners will more likely than not get the nod over Ohio State, mostly because of their consistency this season compared to the Buckeyes. Oklahoma also has a better loss than Ohio State. On top of that, the committee is built not to overreact to one week, even with as good of one it was for Ohio State.
What does that mean for the Buckeyes? They will need to win and get some help if they are to reach the College Football Playoff.
The good news for the Buckeyes is that they don’t need something out of a movie to reach the playoff. Only a couple things need to happen for them.
For one, they need Alabama to beat Georgia in the SEC championship game. If Georgia beats Alabama, things get very complicated, as the committee could put a one-loss Alabama team in over both Oklahoma and Ohio State.
Next, a Texas win over Oklahoma would all but guarantee the Buckeyes get that coveted fourth spot. Texas has beaten Oklahoma already this season, so it is entirely possible that it happens next Saturday.
It can happen for the Buckeyes, but no one is going to hand them that fourth spot. Ohio State will have to earn it.