NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks: Monday, November 26th, 2018
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks articles!
Happy Monday and welcome to yet another week of the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks! After tilting my face off through the 4:24 PM ET NFL games yesterday only to end up heartbroken, I’m ready to refocus my research and vision on some NBA numbers.
We’ve got a rather quiet 7-game slate on tap tonight, but one that could pack plenty of fantasy value.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
11/26/2018 NBA DFS Slate Outlook:
As stated above, this is not a massive slate by any means, but is still ripe with fantasy value.
As of now (8pm CT on Sunday night), there are a HEAP of gametime decisions (John Wall, Victor Oladipo, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis) and there is not a single game on the slate with a double-digit spread (pulled from ESPN), leading me to believe that we could have a night full of competitive basketball. This provides a great deal of safety for the studs on the slate and also makes game stacks much more attractive; starting with our primary game stack:
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Primary Game Stack: Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors
Magic Team Ranks:
Pace: 22nd (101.7 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 25th (103.9 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 17th (106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
Not often do the Magic find themselves as a team that’s written up in a DFS piece, but not often are they also only a +7.5-point underdog against the Warriors. This is especially surprising because they are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but this could indicate that Draymond Green is likely to sit again.
Nikola Vucevic ($9.0k FD / $7.8k DK) had himself a massive game last night, posting 31 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 blocks and 2 steals in 35 minutes against the Lakers. He’s topped 50 FanDuel points in 4 of his last 7 contests and has asserted himself as the focal point of the Magic offense. While he doesn’t have the highest usage rate on the team, he’s averaging an elite 1.41 fantasy points per minute, putting him up there with the likes of Giannis, Westbrook and more. He’s a bit expensive on FanDuel but is dirt cheap for his floor/ceiling combination on DraftKings this evening.
While he hasn’t been as consistent at Vucevic, Aaron Gordon ($7.8k FD / $7.1k DK) is the type of player that absolutely thrives in a pace-up spot like this one. Since missing the game on November 11th, Gordon has averaged 17.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 2.4 combined steals/blocks in 32 minutes per game. With Draymond Green at risk of missing the game, he could find himself in an extremely exploitable matchup with a combination of Jonas Jerebko and/or Kevon Looney. He’s not a cash play, but has the ceiling to warrant consideration in GPPs with what should be minimal ownership.
Evan Fournier ($6.4k FD / $5.3k DK) feels way too cheap tonight. Yes, he’ll have to deal with an elite perimeter defender in Klay Thompson, but he holds the highest usage rate on the team (27.4%) and is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute (0.98). He’s seen at least 31 minutes in 3 of his last 5 games, but has been slumping over his past two, scoring 11 combined points in those games. Prior to his mini-slump, however, he dropped a 27/4/3 stat line against the stout Raptors’ defense. With his depressed price due to his mini-slump, I love Fournier as a cash game option tonight, especially on DraftKings for under $5.5k.
Speaking of under-priced, D.J. Augustin ($4.5k FD / $3.8k DK) seems to get absolutely no respect in the DFS industry. Over his last 5 games, he’s posted at least 24 fantasy points 3 times while topping 30 twice. He’s not a high-usage player (16.2%), but is locked in to 25-30 minutes per game at a dirt cheap price in a pace-up spot. He comes in as one of my favorite value plays on the entire slate (barring the GTDs, of course).
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Primary Game Stack: Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors
Warriors Team Ranks:
Pace: T16th (102.7 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 2nd (113.2 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T15th (106.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)
There may not be a hotter NBA player in the league right now than Kevin Durant ($11.5k FD / $10.9k DK) and he still finds himself under $11k on DraftKings.
Over the last 4 games, he’s averaged 32.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 blocks and 1 steal in 37.5 minutes per game. The absence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green are obviously major factors, but this is a wave you’ll want to ride. He sees the highest bump in usage with them off of the court (+5.2%), taking him up to an absurd 39.7% usage rate. Regardless of how the GTDs play out, Durant is my top stud on the evening.
Speaking of heating up, Klay Thompson ($7.2k FD / $7.3k DK) has scored 31 points in back to back games while topping 22 in 5 straight. He’s averaging over 20 field goal attempts per game over his last 6 games and the volume shouldn’t go anywhere tonight against the Magic. Thompson has a 36.3% usage rate with Curry and Green out (+4.7% increase) and the Magic are a bottom-10 team in the NBA against opposing shooting guards, allowing 41.51 FanDuel points per game. He’s priced out for my liking, but I wouldn’t fault you for riding his hot streak.
Piggy backing off of the two studs on the court for the Warriors, the rest of the team is harder to pin-point. The rotating door at the PF/C position has been nothing but a headache. Jonas Jerebko ($3.8k FD / $4.0k DK), Kevon Looney ($4.0k FD / $3.8k DK) and Damian Jones ($3.9k FD / $3.5k DK) all seem to be struggling to carve out a consistent role in the offense, warranting a fade on all three.
The two value pieces that warrant consideration are Quinn Cook ($5.4k FD / $5.1k DK) and Andre Iguodala ($4.1k FD / $3.6k DK). Cook’s price has been rising a bit, but he’s been locked in to a consistent 29-32 minutes per game. He’s topped 22 fantasy points in 5 straight outings, giving him a floor of roughly 4x with the ability to have a ceiling game of 40+, as we saw earlier this month against the Nets. Iguodala on the other hand is less reliable from a fantasy perspective, but with his ability to stuff the stat sheet, he could be a fine punt on DraftKings.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Game Stack: Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Pelicans
Celtics Team Ranks:
Pace: 21st (101.8 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: T23rd (104.0 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T1st (100.6 points allowed per 100 possessions)
I think that a lot of people would agree when I say that the Celtics may be one of the biggest disappointments thus far through the season. They’re sitting at 10-10 on the season and while their defense has been stellar, they have a bottom 10 offense in the league.
With that being said, it’d be hard to blame the recent play of Kyrie Irving ($9.0k FD / $8.7k DK) for the inept offense in Boston. Over his last 6 games, he’s averaging 24 points, 7.5 assists, 5 rebounds and 2.2 steals in 32.3 minutes per game. That may be the most well-rounded stat line over a stretch that we’ve seen throughout his career. While he’ll likely draw the defense of Jrue Holiday tonight, the massive pace bump (NOP is 3rd in pace) and the tight spread (NO -1), have me thinking that Irving could have a massive game.
With Jaylen Brown listed as doubtful for the game, we should see either Gordon Hayward ($6.4k FD / $5.5k DK) or Marcus Smart ($4.0k FD / $4.1k DK) draw the start in his place. Hayward has been slowly eased into a primary role this season, but after sitting last game against Dallas and playing only 22 minutes the game before against the Hawks, I feel like his leash will be longer tonight. In his last game where he saw more than 30 minutes (31 min on 11/21 vs NYK), he posted 19 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals. He’s priced a bit too high on FanDuel, but for $5.5k on DraftKings you could do much worse.
Smart on the other hand always seems to be frustrating when he’s chalk, but the combination of his price and the matchup have me all over him tonight. Smart has seen 23+ minutes in 3 of his last 4 and in those three, he’s posted 12.3 points, 3.7 assists, 1.3 rebounds and 2 steals per game. They’re not flashy numbers, but at his current salary, that’s an average of roughly 25 FanDuel points per game (6x value). He’s a top-end value play on both sites.
Jayson Tatum ($6.8k FD / $6.4k DK) has really expanded his offensive game this season, emerging as the clear 2nd option for Boston. I don’t expect Nikola Mirotic to slow him down and while AD (if active) will clog the lane, Tatum makes for a fantastic mid-tier play assuming he sees more than 30 minutes in a tight game.
While Tatum has seen his role expand, it seems like Al Horford ($6.3k FD / $5.4k DK) has seen the opposite happen. He’s scored more than 10 points only once in his last 4 games and has averaged only 11.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game this season. His low price on DraftKings may attract people, but in a game where he could be matched up with Anthony Davis, I’m all aboard fading Horford here.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Game Stack: Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans Team Ranks:
Pace: 3rd (107.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 4th (110.9 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 26th (109.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
What’s new, the Pelicans value is contingent on the status of Anthony Davis ($12.6k FD / $11.2k DK). I’ll keep this short and sweet. If Davis plays, he’s obviously one of the top 3 studs on the slate. Against an under-sized Boston frontcourt, he could absolutely smash, but you’re taking a massive risk with his price, especially on FanDuel. I would recommend fading him regardless of his status, but if he happens to sit, the supporting cast sees a major boost.
Jrue Holiday ($8.9k FD / $8.3k DK) has been one of the most consistent players in the NBA this season. He’s averaging over 40 fantasy points per game and has failed to reach that mark only 5 times this season. What may surprise people is that with Anthony Davis off of the court, Holiday actually sees a LOWER usage rate (-1.0% change), but still averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute. Regardless of Davis’ status, Holiday is one of my favorite cash plays on the slate.
The biggest beneficiary of Davis off of the court is Julius Randle ($7.8k FD / $7.6k DK). He sees a 4.9% bump in his usage rate (up to 31.9% and averages 1.54 fantasy points per minute. If Davis sits, he slides into a starting role and showcased what he can do last game, as he posted 29 points, 15 rebounds and 7 assists against the Wizards in 38 minutes. If Davis does play (and for the record, I think he will), Randle still holds a 27% usage rate and would be a key cog off the bench. Even with that production however, I couldn’t justify his price if Davis is active.
Nikola Mirotic ($7.5k FD / $6.9k DK) is the final piece of the Pelicans stack and finally seems to be back on track after a few off games. Over his last 2 games, he’s averaged 21.5 points, 9 rebounds and 1 steal per game in 34.5 minutes. He’s averaging over a fantasy point per minute on the season and comes in at a rather reasonable price on DraftKings against a mediocre defender in Jayson Tatum.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Top GPP Team Stack: Washington Wizards (vs HOU)
Wizards Team Ranks:
Pace: 6th (105.6 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 16th (106.0 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 27th (110.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)
I do expect this game to garner a decent amount of attention, but I would reserve the Wizards for GPPs due to their unbelievable inconsistency this season.
John Wall ($9.3k FD / $9.0k DK) finds himself as a GTD after sustaining an ankle injury in his last game, but given the fact that he was able to fight through it last game gives me reason to believe he’ll suit up tonight. If he does, he’ll suit up for a tough matchup with Chris Paul. He’s averaged 14.7 points and 8.7 assists in his last 3 games against the Rockets, giving ample reason to fade him, but he should carry virtually no ownership in tournaments and carries a 60 point+ ceiling. If Paul is to sit due to his hamstring injury however, I would expect Harden to slide over to PG, making Wall an elite play in a smash spot.
Perhaps much more enticing is his wingman Bradley Beal ($8.2k FD / $7.4k DK). Beal has been a much more well-rounded player this season than in years past, as he’s averaging 4.6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.1 blocks and 1 steal per contest. He’s also fresh off of a 47.2 FDP performance while only scoring 18 raw points. That’s something we would not have seen last season. He has a 27.6% usage rate and regardless of whether Paul is active or not, Beal will have a very favorable matchup against either James Harden or Eric Gordon on the wing.
With the status of Dwight Howard up in the air, we could see a lot of small ball with Markieff Morris ($4.7k FD / $4.4k DK), who has averaged 14.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals and a block per game over his last 3 games. He’s priced far too cheap for the role he could find himself in tonight and is a great value play across the industry and should carry little to no ownership.
Otto Porter ($6.5k FD / $5.7k DK) has topped 34 FanDuel points in 3 straight games for the first time this season and has also seen 31+ minutes in 3 straight games as Washington has continued to go small. We could see similar usage out of him tonight, making him a great play on DraftKings for under $6.0k. Piggy-backing off of Porter, fellow SF Kelly Oubre ($5.5k FD / $4.3k DK) has been struggling to find consistent minutes, but that hasn’t halted his production. Over the last 5 games, he’s averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute and finds himself as a nice value play on DraftKings, but a tad over-priced on FanDuel.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Top Value Stack: Cleveland Cavaliers (vs MIN)
Cavaliers Team Ranks:
Pace: 28th (99.7 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 17th (105.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 30th (111.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Cavs are quickly becoming regulars as the top value stack, but for good reason.
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Collin Sexton ($5.8k FD / $5.8k DK) is coming off of a career-high 29 points against the Rockets and has seen at least 31 minutes in 7 of his last 8 games. He doesn’t contribute a ton in the peripheral categories, but it’s hard to ignore his scoring right now, as he’s averaging 21.2 points per game over his last 5 on 53.7% shooting from the field.
Cedi Osman ($5.5k FD / $5.0k DK) had been seeing all the minutes he can handle. He only played 23 minutes last game, but registered 41 and 42 minutes in his two before that against the 76ers and Lakers. In those games, he averaged 20.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2 assists per game. While I won’t expect 40+ minutes out of him, he does maintain a significant role in the offense for a very cheap price. He’s a great value play on DraftKings tonight.
Jordan Clarkson ($5.7k FD / $5.4k DK) has taken over with Collin Sexton as the primary option on offense, averaging 16.8 points per game over his last 5 in 25.5 minutes per game. He’s added 3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game over that span but has struggled to do much else. His ceiling is heightened in tonight’s matchup as he should see the non-existent defense of Andrew Wiggins, making him an intriguing play tonight.
Next. FanDuel NBA DFS Picks - Monday, November 26. dark