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College Football Playoff rankings: Every what if scenario for Championship Weekend

ByPatrick Schmidt|
MORGANTOWN, WV - NOVEMBER 23: Oklahoma Sooners Quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws the ball during the first half of the Oklahoma Sooners versus the West Virginia Mountaineers game on November 23, 2018, at the Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, WV. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MORGANTOWN, WV - NOVEMBER 23: Oklahoma Sooners Quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws the ball during the first half of the Oklahoma Sooners versus the West Virginia Mountaineers game on November 23, 2018, at the Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, WV. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There are four schools vying for one open spot in the College Football Playoff on the final weekend of the season.

And down the stretch they come.

One more weekend of college football before the College Football Playoff will be set and the remaining New Year’s Six and bowl games will be confirmed.

Notre Dame became the first team to punch their ticket to the four-team field after capping a perfect regular season with a win over USC on Saturday night. One could argue Alabama and Clemson unofficially officially clinched when they went through the regular season undefeated and often untested.

Alabama plays Georgia in the SEC Championship in a rematch of last year’s National Championship Game while Clemson plays Pitt for the ACC. Both could lose, no matter them being double-digit favorites, and still get in.

That leaves Georgia needing a win to stay in after occupying the No. 4 spot left open after Michigan lost to Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and yes, even UCF, still alive on the final weekend.

Here is a breakdown of how the seven teams still alive make the playoff and all the what if scenarios that could come into play.

How No. 1 Alabama gets in: Beat Georgia and retain No. 1 seed. If they lose, they should still be in over conference champions, Oklahoma and Ohio State as the No. 4 seed.

How No. 2 Clemson gets in: Beat Pitt and clinch No. 2 spot behind Alabama if they win. If Clemson wins and Alabama loses, Tigers get No. 1 seed. If Clemson loses, they should still be in over Oklahoma and Ohio State for their full body of work.

How No. 3 Notre Dame gets in: Brian Kelly’s team finished the regular season undefeated. They won’t play in a conference championship game to enhance (or hurt) their resume. They could drop to No. 4 depending on the outcomes of the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten games.

How No. 4 Georgia gets in: Bulldogs are in a play-in game vs. Alabama. If the Dawgs win, they could take the No. 3 spot from Notre Dame. If they lose, they’ll be in the Sugar Bowl instead.

How No. 5 Oklahoma gets in: The Sooners came in ahead of Ohio State, for now. The 90th ranked defensive in efficiency counters with the nation’s most explosive offense and Kyler Murray. They’ll play Texas for the Big 12 with a chance to avenge their three-point loss and if they win, they should be in, unless Ohio State wins the Big Ten by 50-plus.

How No. 6 Ohio State gets in: The Buckeyes are alive after last week’s demolishing of Michigan. They still need a lot of help to crack the top four, however. First, Ohio State has to beat No. 21 Northwestern. Then, they need Oklahoma to lose to No. 14 Texas and Georgia lose to Alabama. That’s the easiest way to get in.

What if Ohio State and Oklahoma win and Georgia loses?

Buckeyes would need to win in a similar fashion to what they did to Wisconsin in 2014 when they won 59-0 to pass Oklahoma. The Sooners will be playing a higher-ranked opponent so they’re at a disadvantage by not playing a Wisconsin team that was the preseason No. 4. Northwestern doesn’t provide the same cred as a win over Texas does for Oklahoma.

What if Ohio State and Oklahoma win and Alabama loses?

The big debate is who gets in between Oklahoma and Ohio State because it’s already presumed that Alabama won’t trip up vs. Georgia. The Crimson Tide is a 13.5-point favorite and the unanimous No. 1 team in the AP Top 25, but upsets do happen. Should the upset occur, Alabama would get the last spot if Clemson, Notre Dame and Georgia occupy the other three spots.

What if everyone loses, can UCF sneak in?

This is the chaos scenario that a lot of fans may want to see if their favorite team isn’t alive for a playoff spot. UCF has won 25 straight and came in at No. 8, one spot behind Michigan, and will play Memphis for the AAC Championship but without injured star quarterback McKenzie Milton. If the Knights win, they’d need Alabama to beat Georgia, Texas to beat Oklahoma, Northwestern to beat Ohio State and then say a few prayers. It’s the ultimate Hail Mary, but there is a pulse.

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