Fantasy Basketball Picks – Game by Game NBA DFS Breakdown – November 27

We have a nice five game slate on tap tonight featuring some of the biggest names in the game so let’s jump right in for some Fantasy Basketball Picks!

After a bit of a hiatus, we’re back to break down tonight’s slate for DFS NBA with our top Fantasy Basketball Picks! With the NFL schedule in it’s back half, the goal is to gradually ramp these up to 4-5 times a week but at least for the next couple, we’re likely still looking at 2-3 times and mostly focused on the smaller slates. When I’m not around, be sure to check out all of the great NBA content through the entire site! Let’s go to work!

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Knicks at Pistons

Pace Ranks – Knicks at 20th, Pistons at 21st

Knicks Breakdown 

The Knicks continue to be a little frustrating from a minutes standpoint with many of their players, most notably the guard situation. There’s really only a select few players that I’d be willing to trust on a nightly basis at the moment and that’s Tim Hardaway and Noah Vonleh. He’s suddenly seen at least 30 minutes for five games straight and despite coming off a quiet game against the Grizzlies, Vonleh is firmly on the radar tonight. The Pistons have been tough on the power forward position, ranking third in fantasy points given up. However, the Knicks are going to need help on the boards since the Pistons are fourth in rebounding percentage. Vonleh has had double-digit rebounds in three of his last five and nine in one of those games.

Despite leading the Knicks in usage, I’m a little concerned about playing Hardaway tonight. Detroit is giving up the fewest real life points per game to small forwards and that’s the bread and butter for Hardaway. Enes Kanter has been all over the board with minutes himself but the past three games has seen a huge spike. He’s rewarded those minutes with a double double in each, culminating with a 21/26 game against Memphis in a whopping 41 minutes. Much like Vonleh, the Knicks need that type of presence on the glass given the opponent and is firmly on my radar.

Personal Plays – Vonleh, Kanter

Players to Consider – Hardaway, Trey Burke, if we get news that a particular point guard will get more minutes

Pistons Breakdown 

It’s been a few days since I’ve done this article but some thing haven’t changed. Detroit is a two-man show for fantasy purposes and it revolves around Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith are the only players over 0.75 FPPM but they split minutes at the point guard position and the Knicks rank seventh against point guards. Griffin still leads the NBA in touches per game and you really can’t go too far wrong with him on any given night. However, my focus tonight is likely going to be Andre Drummond. He’s smashing this season, averaging 19.5 points(career of 13.8) and 16.1 boards(career of 13.5) and has generally been cheaper than Griffin.

The FPPM is actually higher for Drummond by 0.12 and he draws the “defense” of Enes Kanter. His overall rating is a -6.3, meaning he’s good for 6 more points to the other team when he’s on the floor. The Pistons already have a significant advantage on the glass before the game even tips and Drummond should be able to have a field day here. The Knicks are allowing the eighth highest field goal percentage within five feet(notably the Pistons actually allow a higher percentage) and we could see a nice battle between Kanter and Drummond when they matchup.

Personal Plays – Drummond, Griffin

Players to Consider – Reggie Jackson, Ish Smith

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Hawks at Heat

Pace Ranks – Hawks at 1st, Heat at 11th

Hawks Breakdown 

It might be a very small sample size but if we look at just raw FPPM mark for the Hawks, the team leader likely isn’t who you would think it is. It’s not Trae Young, it’s not Taurean Prince, it happens to be John Collins. The big man is still working his way back from an injury to start the season but has now played 27, 30 and 30 minutes in the past three contests. There is always a risk when you play him since he’s averaging 3.4 fouls per game and the Heat are tough against the power forward position. Still, 1.12 FPPM and 24.1 percent usage are nothing to sneer at.

Young himself is kind of interesting here as well. He leads the team in usage and is neck and neck in FPPM with Collins. The Heat have been hit hard by point guards so far, giving up the seventh most DK points and the fifth most real points. Young is the same style roller coaster as Collins can be, but it’s more because the minutes are volatile and the rookie has been up and down with his actual production. The price tag is really what makes me hesitate although it should be a fast paced game in a good matchup. Jeremy Lin continues to be a solid contributor off the bench so if you’re looking to attack that weakness at a cheaper price and just a few less minutes, Lin is the way to go.

Personal Plays – Collins, Young, Lin

Players to Consider – Prince, Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmond/Alex Len if one happens to miss

Heat Breakdown 

As of this writing, the best guess is the Heat will be without Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson again for this contest so the options are a little limited. Hassan Whiteside jumps off the page with a 1.60 FPPM without those two guards and a very favorable matchup against the Hawks. Atlanta is giving up the seventh most DK points and the fifth most rebounds, as evidenced by being dead last in rebounding percentage this season. Sometimes Whiteside can be a little vulnerable to smaller opponents but the shortest player who plays any center for the Hawks is Collins at 6’10”. I don’t think that’s a fear this evening although you could argue the pace could potentially be a problem. It wouldn’t be enough to scare me off of Whiteside personally.

Perhaps the biggest question is what to do with Dwayne Wade. Last game saw him on the floor for a season high 34 minutes. Was that because he was shooting the ball so well(13-22) or is it something that could potentially happen a little more often while their shorthanded? I would lean towards it was just because he was scoring but he’s got the highest usage on the team without the two guards on the floor. He and Josh Richardson have been splitting the point guard duties so far with no Dragic and I would expect that to continue. The Heat are a team that we have to keep close tabs on to see who’s active because that really dictates where we go with them.

Personal Plays – Whiteside, possibly Wade, Richardson

Players to Consider – James Johnson, Bam Adebayo, Rodney McGruder, Justice Winslow, Wayne Ellington are all dependent on who’s active

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Raptors at Grizzlies

Pace Ranks – Raptors at 12th, Grizzlies at 30th

Raptors Breakdown

I always have a hard time getting too excited for players that are facing the Grizzlies in Memphis. Kawhi Leonard leads the team in usage when he’s on the floor at 32.4 percent but I’m not sure I’m willing to pay the premium for him tonight. Memphis leads the NBA in points given up per game by two full points over the Pacers, which is no small amount. In addition, the Grizzlies rank inside the top 10 against Leonard’s position from an individual matchup. Kyle Lowry continues to pace the league in assists per game and that’s well and good but again, the Grizzlies are second against point guards and only allow the 10th fewest assists per contest against that position.

If Jonas Valanciunas draws the start here, you could make an argument for a cheaper play with him. He might try to match Marc Gasol the best he can but I really think this is a spot where I just don’t play Toronto tonight. Something would have to change during the day to change my mind.

Personal Plays – None

Players to Consider – Leonard, Lowry, Valanciunas/Serge Ibaka(whoever starts at center), Pascal Siakam(mostly if Kawhi sits), Danny Green

Grizzlies Breakdown  

Toronto is also really a good defensive team but this is such a pace up spot for the Grizzlies I think they might be more interesting here. Marc Gasol is interesting but he is not cheap anymore. $8,900 given the pricing of the other centers likely keeps me away from him this evening, although he could be an excellent GPP play. Jaren Jackson Jr is volatile with fouls but does draw the lone favorable individual matchup for the Grizzlies. The Raptors aren’t anything that worries me about the power forward position. Jackson and Mike Conley are actually very close in FPPM so these two players would stand out as the best options.

The last player I always consider is Kyle Anderson. He doesn’t do anything special but he fills every part of the stat sheet and is always a solid cash play since his price is mostly static. It’s never a good idea to totally dismiss a game on a small slate but there’s not mistaking this is the ugliest game on paper that we have.

Personal Plays – Jackson Jr., Conley

Players to Consider – Gasol, Shelvin Mack, Anderson

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Lakers at Nuggets

Pace Ranks – Lakers at 5th, Nuggets at 26th

Lakers Breakdown 

This could be the marquee game of the evening as even though the Nuggets are down in pace, they have the ability to play up to their opponents. LeBron James is obviously the player from the Lakers that will garner the most attention and he’s the clear leader in usage at 33.2 percent and 1.51 FPPM. The Nuggets are mid-pack from a matchup standpoint but it just doesn’t matter with LeBron. He’s still remarkably consistent even at the age of almost 34 years old and is the stud to pay up for if not using the Detroit Pistons players.

Where we head for the rest of the Lakers is little bit more of a question mark. JaVale McGee is the next man up for FPPM but his minutes seem to vie a pretty clear ceiling on them since the arrival of Tyson Chandler. Seeing how the Nuggets are third against centers so far this season, he’s probably not in the best spot to be terribly efficient. Denver is first in rebounding percentage so that helps limit the potential for McGee as well. The other Lakers are all 0.92 FPPM or under at this point in the season and there’s really no clear player to use. Lonzo Ball had an opportunity to emerge with Rajon Rondo breaking his hand but that really hasn’t happened. Over the last eight games, his minutes have ranged from 20 to 36. Guessing where they land tonight is likely a low percentage game. Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma have not really emerged as player we want to target all that often at this point.

Personal Plays – James

Players to Consider – Ingram, Ball, McGee, Kuzma

Nuggets Breakdown 

Alright Nikola Jokic. You and me haven’t been getting along lately. He’s been all over the board lately and generally underwhelming when I’ve played him(which is often because I love that big guy). This has to be the spot for a Jokic explosion. The Lakers are giving up the second most DK points to opposing centers to go along with the most real points and the fifth most rebounds. There’s a long way to go before lock but the duo of Jokic and then one of Kanter or Drummond from the Pistons game looks like a really fun way to go on DK this evening. Gary Harris is “hopeful” and without Harris on the floor(63 minutes so far), Jokic has a 1.73 FPPM.

If Harris plays, he’s got to be an exciting target as well. The Lakers have just been owned by shooting guards so far this year and Harris is at 0.89 FPPM in addition to playing around 33 minutes a game when healthy. Los Angeles is tied for the ninth highest shooting percentage surrendered from beyond the arc, putting Jamaal Murray well into play. We need to see who’s active and who’s not for the Nuggets, but I’m very interested against a team that’s giving up the ninth most points in the league and is a giant pace up spot.

Personal Plays – Jokic, Harris, Murray

Players to Consider – Paul Millsap, Trey Lyles, Juancho Hernangomez, Monte Morris

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Pacers at Suns

Pace Ranks – Pacers at 27th, Suns at 18th

Pacers Breakdown 

The final game of the night has some limited options but there’s a few spots to take advantage of. I’m going to go ahead and assume that Victor Oladipo is out again this evening as he was ruled out of last night’s game pretty early in the day. If that’s the case, Aaron Holiday remains a nice low-priced option against a team that is fourth worst against point guards. Holiday has played a fair amount of the point and owns a healthy 25.5 percent usage and the second highest FPPM mark behind only Domantas Sabonis on the team. The rookie has played at least 15 minutes a night without Oladipo and has hit double digits in points while contributing everywhere else on the stat sheet.

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Tyreke Evans has been a disappointment for this team while Dipo has been out and I don’t think I’m going to the veteran on a back to back spot. His minutes have not been bumped up at all so there’s really not much of a reason to go back to him in this spot. I don’t type this very often, but Myles Turner is in play tonight as the Suns bleed fantasy points to centers. Turner is over 1.00 FPPM and 24 percent usage. Sabonis is also a FPPM machine and I can’t fault you for heading in that direction even if I prefer to play him when a body from the front court is missing.

Personal Plays – Holiday, Turner, Sabonis

Players to Consider – Evans, Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, Thad Young

Suns Breakdown 

The Suns have been picking up their pace all season and the two players I’m most interested in are the two you would likely suspect the most. Deandre Ayton and Devin Booker would be the two I would want to play the most, as they both have secure minutes and roles on this squad. Booker leads the usage department by a long shot but Ayton is close in the FPPM measure. The Pacers represent one of the toughest matchups against centers in the league but at over 32 minutes a night Ayton is still a safe cash play. I just would likely avoid him in GPP’s since the ceiling is likely a little limited.

Booker is interesting to me because of the three-point potential tonight. Not only do the Pacers face the second most three-point attempts a game, but they give up the fourth highest percentage. Booker is attempting just under eight three’s a game and if he catches fire from behind they arc, look out. There is a pretty substantial ceiling with Booker tonight. I’m not sure how involved I’ll get with the complimentary pieces like T.J. Warren or others unless I need a lineup filler.

Personal Plays – Ayton, Booker

Players to Consider – Warren, Trevor Ariza, Mikal Bridges

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