DraftKings NBA Picks November 28: Make a massive frontcourt

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 16: Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Indiana Pacers celebrates after a three point shot against the Miami Heat at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on November 16, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks November 28: Make a massive frontcourt

We are back up to a big slate tonight. Our main DraftKings NBA tournament has ten games going on, and stars galore. The Knicks and Suns are the only teams on back to backs tonight, and with as deep as their rotations are, resting anyone seems unlikely.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kemba Walker ($9,300): There are a few reasons to fade Russ tonight, and the main one is that Cleveland has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to point guards this season. That’s right….the number has actually improved with George Hill out. Cleveland doesn’t do many things right, but apparently defending the point is one of them. Atlanta is solid against the point, but Kemba put up 49 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting and is riding a streak of three straight 40+ DraftKings point games and in eight of his last ten.

John Wall ($9,100): Wall put on a show against Houston with 59.75 DraftKings points in that one. The Wiz played the Pelicans just four days ago, and Wall put up a solid 42.75 DraftKings points in that one. If he hits one or two more shots, that’s the value we need from this price. Wall looks like a strong option in what promises to be another up tempo game.

Honorable Mention:

Jrue Holiday ($8,400): Holiday has not been under 35 DraftKings points in over a month and only twice all season. Like Booker, Holiday’s price is inflated to the point where 35 could hurt us a little, but Holiday’s 35 was against Boston. Washington did hold Holiday to 38.25 DraftKings points four days ago, which is a little shy of where we want him. Still, Holiday produces in every category, so he has that safe floor and is always a threat to hit 50.

Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): Bledsoe has been in a bit of a rut lately, but the Bulls could cure that. Bledsoe destroyed the Bulls for 47 DraftKings points in the first meeting. In the five games since then, Bledsoe has only hit 40 DraftKings points twice and 30 once. The other two were in the 20’s.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,200): There is consistency among the Nets guards, if you can believe that. It is with Dinwiddie, who has at least 30 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, with two of those cracking 40. Dinwiddie doesn’t have the upside that a lot of the other guards have, but there is something that can be said for a value pick being a sure thing.

Dark Horses:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,600): Something can also be said for Brogdon, who was just 4-16 from the floor on Monday, yet managed to pick up his third straight game with more than 30 DraftKings points. Imagine what those totals can look like when the shots are falling! Brogdon does so many things well that his floor is constant. He doesn’t have a ton of upside but I can certainly make room for a sure 6x value in my GPP lineup. He’s not just a cash play anymore.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5,000): SGA is probably more valuable to the Clippers’ starting five than he is to our DFS lineups. His lack of upside makes him more of a cash game play, but he is seeing around 30 minutes a game and providing solid production across the board. He isn’t going to get you 40 DraftKings points, but SGA shouldn’t get you under 20 either.

Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,700): Mudiay continues to provide good production for the price as the starting point guard for the Knicks. Oftentimes Burke ends up playing more minutes, but Mudiay has more than 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. It was Allonzo Trier last night that came up big for the Knicks. Good luck figuring this mess out. Mudiay plays well when the let him play.

My pick: N/A; SGA(PG); Dinwiddie(PG)

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 2: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns carries the ball against the Boston Celtics during the second half at TD Garden on December 2, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Celtics defeat the Suns 116-111. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,600): If CP3 is out or limited, I’m riding the Harden train again. Harden has a staggering 155 DraftKings points over the last two games with Paul out. The Rockets don’t seem concerned will Paul’s injury, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take the court. I would be disappointed though because not only does that make Harden unplayable at this price, it also destroys the value of Eric Gordon.

Devin Booker ($8,800): Booker had times last year where he would drop 50+ DraftKings points a couple of games in a row, then dip right back to the 20’s. That volatility is gone this year. Booker hasn’t been in the 20’s for DraftKings points in almost three weeks and only three times all season. Booker’s price is up to the point where we would be pretty disappointed with a low 30’s showing, but Booker has only been below 38 DraftKings points twice in the last ten games.

Honorable Mention:

Bradley Beal ($8,000): It may be time to move back to Beal. Beal has at least 38 DraftKings points in every game since the great Wizards meltdown of 2018. His highest in that span was the 45 he hung on the Pelicans four days ago. Beal is showing no signs of slowing down, and I would probably play him over Wall tonight.

D’ Angelo Russell ($7,600): Russell broke through the glass ceiling on Sunday, racking up 62.5 DraftKings points against the Sixers, having one of the best all around games of his career. This is what he is capable of with LeVert out. He is also capable of the 14.25 DraftKings points that he put up against Minnesota on Friday. That’s a 48.25 DraftKings point swing in back to back games. Proceed at your own risk.

Jeremy Lamb ($6,400): DraftKings has finally caught on to Lamb’s ramped up production. It was probably the 41.5 DraftKings points that he put up on Monday. At any rate, my first reaction is to fade Lamb with his price this high, but the fact remains that he has hit at least 5x value even with this price in six of the last seven games. It may not be time to jump off just yet, especially with a game against Atlanta on tap for tonight.

Dark Horses:

Justin Holiday ($5,400): May I present to you this week’s version of Jeremy Lamb. Holiday has at least 36 DraftKings points in three straight games. That obliterates value at his price. In fact, Holiday has gone above 8x value for this price and a shade over 10x value for this price in that span. Holiday is pretty much at must play status right now.

Terrence Ross ($4,400): A truly awful game by Ross just before Thanksgiving left Ross as persona non grata among the DFS faithful. It may be time to take another look. Since that game, Ross ahs 87.75 DraftKings points in three games and his price has dropped $300. On a slate like this, its possible for Ross to slip through the cracks and provide some very nice value for us.

Landry Shamet ($3,200): Shamet has carved out a nice role off of the Philadelphia bench with Markelle Fultz out indefinitely. Shamet has played at least 20 minutes, hit at least two threes, and topped double digits in DraftKings points in all of them. Some nights are better than others since he does little besides score, but with this kind of minutes, Shamet is a threat to do some real damage if he is on. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in two of the last three games, which puts him at about 6.5x value.

My pick: Holiday(SG), Shamet(PG), Ross(G); Lamb(SG), Holiday(G); Beal(SG), Shamet(G)

CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 01: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder watches on against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on November 1, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($8,900): I don’t get the super price hike on Giannis. Is he the most athletic player in the league? Probably. Still, even with his two 70+ DraftKings points outings in the last four games, Giannis has only hit value at his price four times in 13 games. I’ll drop down to George, who has at least 5x value in all but one of his last nine games. For those of you keep score at home, Russ has been back for four of those.

Ben Simmons ($8,700): Simmons now has five straight games in the 40’s in DraftKings points. That is keeping him right around value no matter what Butler and Embiid do. Simmons is mostly a facilitator. That gives him a nice floor, but a lower ceiling than most in this range. For that reason, I like Simmons more in cash games, but he has the upside against the Knicks to throw him in a GPP if you want.

Honorable Mention:

Luka Doncic ($7,400): If Doncic is able to play, we have to consider him. He missed practice yesterday because of an illness, but we can’t ignore his four straight games of 35 or more DraftKings points. This is a great matchup with Houston if Doncic is completely healthy. If he is limited, I’m staying off of this.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,600): We may have to deal with some off games from Hardaway, but he is simply the best option the Knicks have. You know, if the Knicks actually made an effort and started the five that were playing well, this team would look pretty good. At any rate, Hardaway’s usage rate remains one of the highest around. That at least makes him worth a look in this price range.

T.J. Warren ($6,500): It seems like Warren’s awful showing against the Pistons on Sunday was an anomaly. In his first game since, Warren lit up the scoreboard, leading the team in scoring against Indiana. The Detroit game seems like a small hiccup, and Warren is back to hitting 5x value with consistency.

Dark Horses:

Otto Porter ($5,900): Porter is capable of putting up some big numbers. We have seen that with him at times throughout his career. Of course, we would like to see it on a more consistent basis. Porter has at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games. The best of that was the 48.75 that he put up against tonight’s opponent, the Pelicans. Can Porter do it again?

Marvin Williams ($4,500): DraftKings is starting to get wise to the output of Williams. Williams has four straight games with more than 20 DraftKings points. I expect tonight against Atlanta will yield another one of those, but how far over? It would take 31.5 DraftKings points to hit 7x value, a mark Williams has only hit once in those four games. That said, Williams had a huge 41.25 DraftKings points against the Hawks on Sunday. Don’t be shocked if he does it again.

Deandre’ Bembry ($4,200): Bembry dropped his third straight game of more than 5x value, and his price is still this low. Say hello to tonight’s chalk, but with Atlanta we usually have a pretty good idea of the rotation. Unlike the Knicks, we can mine for Atlanta value and have a pretty good idea of who is going to play and how much. The minutes are there for Bembry so long as Prince continues to struggle.

My pick: N/A; N/A; Warren(SF)

WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 20: Tobias Harris #34 looks on against the Washington Wizards during the second half at Capital One Arena on November 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,400): Davis has not been under 50 DraftKings points this month. Name anyone else than can claim that. You’ll be looking for a while because no one else can say that. Davis is the most consistent DFS producer, and he still has the upside to produce games in the 70’s. If A.D. were priced at Giannis’ price, I would still consider using him. Tonight, it’s a no brainer. If you’re paying top dollar for someone, it should be Davis or maybe Embiid.

Tobias Harris ($8,400): This is not the Pistons version of Harris. The L.A. version of Harris has at least 40 DraftKings points in six of the last ten games, and has only been under 35 once. That gives him a pretty high floor. There is good upside to Harris tonight since we saw Sabonis thrash the Suns on the interior last night. Harris should have a similarly productive game.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Mirotic ($6,900): Mirotic racked up 40.75 DraftKings points in the first game with the Wizards just four days ago. The bad part about that is that is the high point on Mirotic for the last five games. He has also not been under 5x value in that time. Right now, I think Mirotic is probably better suited for cash games until he starts flashing big time upside again.

Jabari Parker ($6,600): The revenge game narrative against Milwaukee is what kicked off Parker’s current hot streak. He put up 35 DraftKings points against the Bucks 12 days ago. In the six games since, this 35 DraftKings point line is his second lowest. Parker is playing at a high level right now, and could be even more unkind to his former team tonight.

Robert Covington ($6,300): Covington finally busted out with his new team, racking up 44.25 DraftKings points on the Cavs. Defensively, Covington has been a terror for the Timberwolves as you can see by the last few teams that have played Minnesota. You can see who Covington guards. Offensive explosions like this are possible for Covington, but he is still the third or fourth option on the floor most of the time. However, his excellent defense gives him a pretty strong floor.

Dark Horses:

Markieff Morris ($5,100): So long as Dwight Howard has (is) a pain in the ass, Morris is worth playing. Morris has topped 5x value in every game with Howard out, even going as high as 9.5x value his last time out. We wont see Morris hit 9x this price, but 7x value is a real possibility. He put up 33.25 on the Pelicans four days ago.

Derrick Favors ($4,800): He’s a big playing the Nets. Do I really have to say any more? I know that Favors is a backup yet and rarely plays more than half the game, but I’m okay using him here. Just know that Favors doesn’t have a lot of upside in limited minutes.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($3,800): MKG remains one of the better defenders around, so his floor stays high. However, he is offensively challenged, which means that Charlotte is going to keep rolling Marvin Williams out there when they need offense. It’s not like Williams is a poor defender either. MKG is going to see plenty of minutes. After all, he did put up 23.25 DraftKings points in just 18 minutes in his return from a six game absence. He could be a strong value play here.

My pick: Davis(PF), MKG(SF), Morris(F); Mirotic(SF), Covington(PF), Morris(F), Parker(UTIL); Morris(PF), Favors(F)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 18: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts against the Chicago Bulls at the Wells Fargo Center on October 18, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($11,200): Embiid’s floor is a touch lower than Davis’ and his ceiling is also a little lower. Embiid has not been under 44 DraftKings points this month, but he hasn’t been above 65 either. Those are really good numbers, and if you want to get crazy and try to cram both Embiid and Davis in, I’m all for that. The value is certainly there to do it. However, if you are only choosing one, it should probably still be Davis. Kanter is a solid defender so long as the Knicks continue to play him. You never know about those guys…..

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,300): LMA is one of my least used players for DFS purposes because of the sheer volatility of his output. However, I’m all in tonight. Aldridge just destroyed Towns in the first meeting. Not only did Aldridge hold Towns to 22.5 DraftKings points, LMA put up 56.25 of his own. This is another smash spot for Aldridge.

Clint Capela ($8,200): Do you want to try and guard Capela right now. I don’t. On top of that, I’m not entire sure Dallas has anyone that can. Tristan Thompson clamped down on Capela on Saturday, but he is the only one to hold Capela under 45 DraftKings points since November 15th. Ride this hot streak!

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Honorable Mention:

Rudy Gobert ($7,700): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS!

Deandre Ayton ($7,200): You know, I’m a little bit surprised that the Clippers aren’t as automatic as the Nets yet. Technically, the Clips have allowed more fantasy points to centers than the Nets have. Ayton has yet to put up a monster game, but it could happen here against the Clips.

Montrezl Harrell ($7,200): Harrell has nine straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points, but 30 doesn’t cut it anymore at this price. Harrell has still hit 5x value for this price in four straight, but we are approaching his ceiling here since Harrell still comes off the bench.

Julius Randle ($6,700): Wind him up and let him go. Randle decimated the Wizards four days ago with 61.25 DraftKings points in 38 minutes. Now, Davis missed that game, so the production wont be quite so high tonight, but I could still see Randle putting up at least 6x value.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($5,500): Interestingly enough, Gobert has not done a good job protecting the interior this year. The Jazz are in the bottom eight in fantasy points allowed to centers. Allen isn’t going to put up near the score that Gobert does, but he is still going to put up at least 6x value for $2,200 less.

Mo Bamba ($3,500): Bamba is becoming a little more refined offensively in his limited minutes. Unless something happen to Vucevic, Bamba isn’t going to get more than the 15 or so minutes that he is seeing right now, but Bamba has put up at least 5x value in three of the last four games. He could be a solid punt play again.

Richaun Holmes ($3,400): Holmes is a sure 20 DraftKings points at this price. I’ll take that for an outright punt. Holmes picked up his fourth straight game of 20 or more DraftKings points. Here’s what I don’t get. Ariza was a -20 when he was in the game last night, by far the worst on the team. the next worse was Okobo and Bridges at -5. Holmes was -3. What are they gaining by playing Ariza?

My pick: Embiid(C), Allen(UTIL); Aldridge(C); Aldridge(C), Gobert(UTIL)

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