FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Wednesday, 11/28

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Welcome back, NBA DFS players, to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown. I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS like…a lot (I’m running out of comparisons here).

In this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Tonight we have a full ten-game slate with a number of really good looking games for our DFS purposes.  I’ll be going position by position today instead of game-by-game since we have such a big slate.  I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  Always make sure you monitoring Twitter for player updates or getting those push notifications to your phone.

As the season goes along, we run into more and more injury and rest situations that can entirely change the slate so my best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if the slate demands it.  Let’s take a look at what this slate has in store for us tonight!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 10 Game Slate

There are a number of injury situations we need to monitor tonight that are really going to affect how we build our rosters.

*****Chris Paul is questionable with what we’ve learned is a hamstring injury. We’ve seen Harden go full nuclear mode with CP3 out of the lineup lately, so his status tonight is really the first big piece of news that we need.

*****Aaron Gordon is a game-time decision tonight with a back injury. If he’s out, then there’s two Orlando big men that I’m more likely to consider.

*****Both Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr. are GTD’s tonight for Dallas, if either or both of them were to miss then J.J. Barea makes for a great play again.

*****George Hill could return to Cavs tonight and cut into the minutes of the young guards, Collin Sexton, and Rodney Hood. The Cavs have been a solid source of value lately, so just keep an eye on their rotation as they start to get healthier.

There are 3 games without Vegas totals yet, but of the 7 that do have totals, there are FOUR games with double-digit spreads (CHA-ATL, NYK-PHI, CLE-OKC, and CHI-MIL). Now, I hate trying to predict blowouts, but I am likely to steer clear of some high-priced studs in those games and I’ll also be crossing them off my game stack list.

The highest total on the slate is Washington at New Orleans at 241.5 – more on that one later, I promise! (Hint, hint)

Okay, let’s get things going with our position-by-position breakdown!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Eric Bledsoe (7400)

Do you want some exposure to Milwaukee’s 120 point team total without paying for Giannis? Bledsoe is the perfect way to do it tonight, he’s flashed a nice ceiling lately with three 40+ FanDuel outings in his last five games, including a 47 FD point performance against these Bulls a few weeks ago. I love taking guards against the Bulls, and I think Bledsoe outperforms his price tag in this matchup.

Spencer Dinwiddie (6500)

Dinwiddie is still coming off the bench but is still playing close to 30 minutes a night for the Nets. His price is getting up there where he’s no longer a value play, which should help keep his ownership down, especially because many don’t realize the Jazz are a good team to target with point guards. Dinwiddie scored 31 real-life points in only 28 minutes in his last game and has been averaging over 7 assists per game since Caris Levert got hurt.  Fire him up with confidence today.

Value: JJ Barea (4700), Patty Mills (4000)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

James Harden (11600)

If CP3 does sit, I won’t try to get cute and fade Harden (like 40% of the field did on Monday, only to watch him score 81 FD points). We’re seeing some classic Harden performances and he would be in full beast mode again tonight against Dallas’s porous defense. Don’t overthink it, just play Harden. You can even play him if Paul is back in the lineup as most people will pivot. He’s the “anti-pivot” if that happens (I just invented that term!)

Eric Gordon (5500)

Sure, Gordon may usually be categorized as a cash-game play, but if CP3 sits out again I expect EG to be firing shots all night long. He’s scored 28 and 36 real-life points in his last two games (38 and 40 FD points) and becomes Robin to Harden’s Batman with Paul in street clothes. He’s still too cheap here for his upside.

Honorable Mention: Bradley Beal (8200)

Value: Marco Belinelli (3800)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Nikola Mirotic (7700)

I realize that all three SF’s I’m writing up here are from the same game and it’s not a coincidence. It’s my favorite game on the slate by a wide margin. Miro is likely to go overlooked with Anthony Davis back in the lineup, but he’s shown 40+ FD point potential even with Davis on the floor this year. The matchup is awesome here against the Wizards and ownership will be low. He’s a great pivot off his much more expensive teammate.

Otto Porter (6600)

Otto Porter was rumored to be heading to the Pelicans in a possible trade just last week when the Wizards were in full self-destruct mode and since then he’s been on a tear, scoring between 33-48 FD points in his last four games. He has the best matchup of any starter as SF is the best spot to attack the Pelicans on defense. I love his upside tonight and he makes for a great mid-tier target for GPPs.

Honorable Mention: Etwaun Moore (5400)

The Wizards are also bad against the SF position and Moore just scored 42 FD points in this same matchup last week

Value: Mikal Bridges (4200)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Anthony Davis (12500)

I’m doing everything I can to fit Harden and Davis into some lineups tonight, but if push comes to shove I put Davis above Harden as the top spend-up on the slate. He missed the first matchup between these two teams last week but returned last game to drop 66 FD points on Boston in a slower game against a better defense. I don’t care how chalky he is, Davis will be in most of my lineups and I think he goes for 75+ tonight.

Markieff Morris (6500)

Wow, look at that price hike! Morris was under 5k and smashing as a value play the last three games and finally got a major adjustment. He’s still in play here even at this price, considering he’s the de-facto center with Dwight Howard out again tonight. Sure, Thomas Bryant might start, but Morris will play 30+ minutes tonight and this game is bound to go small and play fast.

Value: PJ Tucker (4300)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Nikola Vucevic (9500)

What Vuc is doing right now is really a thing of beauty. He’s shown he’s one of the most talented big men in the league, scoring at will on opponents and being asked to carry the offense most nights for a scrappy Orlando team. He’s gone for 50+ FD points now in five of his last seven games and tonight he could be asked to shoulder the load again as fellow big man Aaron Gordon is iffy. I’ll have some shares of Vuc either way, as he has the highest ceiling of any sub-10k player tonight in my opinion.

DeAndre Ayton (7500)

Ayton has shown some real promise this year, racking up some impressive double-doubles while showing a smooth shooting stroke. We haven’t seen a young big man with such a polished offensive game in a while, and tonight he gets to take on a Clippers team that struggles against big men. Take advantage of Ayton’s 7.5k tag here because another big performance tonight and we’re likely to see him go up over 8k again soon.

Value: Mo Bamba (3600)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Washington Wizards (+6) @ New Orleans Pelicans (241 total)

Are surprised? I wrote up six players from this game already so you shouldn’t be!  Not only is this total crazy high, but both teams are playing at an incredibly fast pace. I’m going to do everything I can to stack this game up multiple different ways.

You may notice I didn’t write up John Wall today, and that was by design. He’s a strategic fade for me here as I think he draws the solid defense of Jrue Holiday (who I also didn’t write up mainly because he’s now a bit overpriced at 9k).  Wall only scored 40 FD points in their meeting last week and he’s not the most efficient use of our cap space tonight in my opinion.

My builds will include Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Markieff Morris on the Wizards side. Kelly Oubre (4700) and Jeff Green (4200) are possible options there, too, but I’m not crazy about either of them here as their splitting the leftover wing minutes and neither of them is doing a whole lot with them.

My main Pelicans will be Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, and Etwaun Moore.  Davis is my first priority, but I think you can definitely build a few games stacks in which you fade him and play Miro and/or Moore instead. If Davis gets hurt or just defers to his teammate a lot tonight, you have a unique combination that others won’t have.

Grab a few pieces from this game in GPPs and even cash games, it’s by far the best one on the slate!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

I try to include as many of the players that I write-up in my lineups but at some point, you have to find value plays at certain positions to make everything fit. With ten games tonight, there are quite a few different ways to go with roster construction today so I’ll likely mix and match my favorite plays and build a few game stacks of the Wizards-Pelicans game.

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It feels like a “stars and scrubs” kind of night with Harden and Davis being the priority spends for me. But others will likely take that route, too, so I’ll have some balanced builds as well.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.

Here’s what I am looking at this morning.

PG: Spencer Dinwiddie (6500)

PG: Patty Mills (4000)

SG: Eric Gordon (5500)

SG: James Harden (11600)

SF: Etwaun Moore (5400)

SF: Otto Porter (6600)

PF: PJ Tucker (4300)

PF: Anthony Davis (12500)

C: Mo Bamba (3600)

That’s all I got today, peeps! I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  Keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!