FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Thursday, 11/29 – Kawhi vs. Durant!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Hello again, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m Thunder Dan and I enjoy writing these daily breakdowns for you as often as my schedule allows. I just want to thank all of the readers out there who take a few minutes out of their day to read what I have to say about fantasy basketball and I’m proud to announce I’m now a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers of America). I look forward to continuing to bring you the highest level of DFS content here at FantasyCPR.

Ok, back to hoops!  In this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Tonight we have a super small three-game slate, but some really intriguing match-ups.  I’ll be going game-by-game today since we have such a small slate, and I’ll do my best to break down each game as thoroughly as I can.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  Always make sure you monitoring Twitter for player updates or getting those push notifications to your phone. We’ve had some late-breaking news in the final hour lately that has really affected the slate!

As the season goes along, we run into more and more injury and rest situations that can entirely change the slate so my best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if the slate demands it.  Let’s take a look at what this slate has in store for us tonight!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: What to Expect Tonight

We already have some important injury information that is going to really impact the slate.

****Steph Curry is still out tonight, but aiming to return for Saturday’s game against Detroit. Teammate Draymond Green is not likely to play either. Their absences give us one more night of “Beast-mode Durant.”

*****Rajon Rondo remains out for the Lakers and their other point guard, Lonzo Ball is now questionable with an ankle injury. If Ball does miss tonight’s game with the Pacers we should see full-time “Point-Lebron” and a few more backcourt minutes for Josh Hart and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and maybe even some “point-Lance” Stephenson with the second unit.

*****Victor Oladipo is doubtful tonight and will likely miss his sixth consecutive game for the Pacers tonight.  The good news is that Indiana has picked up his slack quite nicely, going 3-2 without their star player and we’ve seen the emergence of some of their secondary options as viable fantasy options.

*****Some other players whose status you will want to keep an eye on would be Marcin Gortat (late scratch last night, and if he misses we could have another Boban start),  and Iman Shumpert (who rested last game and should return and possibly take minutes from other Sacto guards).

We’re waiting for a total and spread for the Toronto-Golden State game, but it’s likely to come in with a solid over/under and relatively tight spread. We have three games that project to be pretty competitive tonight, and so we really have the entire player pool in play and I don’t think there’s a game we can really cross off tonight.

I think game-stacks are definitely an option, but the pricing is really tight as FanDuel has made a concerted effort to price up players quickly. It’s going to be challenging tonight, but I think that makes for a fun slate, because we shouldn’t see a ton of heavy chalk and a lot of duplicate lineups.

Let’s get things started with the game breakdowns, starting with the defending champs traveling up north to take on the best team in the East!

Last but not least – we have some exciting news as the folks at FantasyDraft have been kind enough to sponsor a Picks and Pivots Free Roll – well technically two! The first one filled so quickly that they were kind enough to create another one which will award THREE $25 Pick and Roll tickets to tomorrow’s NBA slate. Get in now!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown:  Golden State @ Toronto

This should be a really great game in real life, and for our fantasy purposes. Toronto is playing as well as any team in the league and their depth is really unmatched as they go deep into their bench without that much of a drop off in talent. They’ll be home favorites here against the defending champs, who have looked mortal without two of their big four (Curry and Draymond) missing a lot of time lately.

Toronto is a solid team defensively, but they are playing at a faster pace than they used to in the Dwayne Casey and DeMar DeRozan era. This is actually a pace up spot for the Warriors and it’s hard not to love Kevin Durant (11500) here as he’s been otherworldly in his last five games, averaging over 62 FD points.

Finding another Warrior to play is a tougher proposition. Klay Thompson is priced fairly at 7000 but lacks much of a ceiling at that price without scoring 40 actual points. Kevon Looney and Jonas Jerebko aren’t doing much lately. Andre Iguodala is playing more minutes but is not doing much from a fantasy standpoint. Quinn Cook is probably in play at 5400 based on his scoring ability, but even he hasn’t cracked 30 FD points in his last four games despite playing 30 minutes a game.

The Raptors are a tough team from a DFS standpoint in that other than their superstar Kawhi Leonard (10200), who is pouring in nearly 44 FD points a game and flashing 50+ upside occasionally, they’re a pretty balanced team. On nights when Kawhi is not resting, it’s hard to justify paying 6-8k for Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka, or Kyle Lowry. Fred Van Vleet (4800) is cheap enough that I would consider taking a shot on him as he’s shown a hot hand scoring the ball lately as the Raptors sixth man.  Jonas Valanciunas (5600) is seeing such sporadic playing time that it’s hard to get excited about him, especially in this game because of how the Warriors like to play small without a true center out there.

KD and Kawhi are the primary targets here and I really think a 1-1 stack from this game is perfectly fine based on the prices on the pieces and the lack of production from the Golden State role players.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Indiana @ L.A. Lakers

The Lakers are 4.5 favorites at home as the Pacers come to L.A. tonight. We have a pretty modest 217 total here and neither team is playing with much pace right now (Lakers are playing significantly slower than they were earlier in the year, so don’t be fooled by their season-long pace ranking).

I mentioned earlier that Lonzo Ball‘s status is up in the air. If he plays, I have very little interest in any Laker not named Lebron James (11400). If Lonzo does miss, then someone like Josh Hart (3600) might enter the starting lineup and would immediately become a great value as a punt play. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (3800) and Lance Stephenson (3700) would also be intriguing options off the bench with more minutes and more usage available.  Indiana has been really solid defensively, so I’m really only paying up for LeBron to be contrarian and get off the Durant chalk or I’m playing value Lakers here.

The Pacers are a team I’ve been using 2-3 players from on nearly every slate for the last week and a half, but that might be tough to do tonight considering FanDuel got wise to their situation and anticipated that Oladipo would miss tonight – thus hiking up the prices of Myles Turner (7200), Domantas Sabonis (7500), and Darren Collison (6300). I still might try to get two of them into a lineup, but it doesn’t seem like the optimal build with having to fade one of the superstars at small forward from the Golden State game.

Tyreke Evans (5100) is still a stay-away for me, as he’s shown absolutely no upside since entering the starting lineup. Sabonis is the priority for me, as you probably know he’s one of my favorite players to use in fantasy and despite the fact he’s coming off the bench, he’s still producing at an elite level. Wednesday he scored 45 FD points in only 22 minutes, good for over 2 FPPM which is scary good. He’ll be in all my lineups.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: L.A. Clippers @ Sacramento

This is the game that is most stackable and the most attractive from a fantasy perspective. The Clippers as 3 point road favorites heading north to Sacto face a scrappy, young Kings team. It’s a pace up spot for the Clippers, who were already playing at a top 8 pace, as the Kings are playing at the second fastest rate in the league.

You would normally want to look at the Clippers big men Tobias Harris (8400) and Montrezl Harrell (8500) but they are both priced absurdly high and I really can’t justify paying those prices for them.  Instead, I’m going to focus on guards Lou Williams (6200) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (5200) as solid mid-range plays. And of course, if we get news that Marcin Gortat is out again, then we have Boban Marjanovic as a free square at only 4600.

For the Clippers, it might be time to buy low on DeAaron Fox (7600) who’s seen his price drop below 8k as he’s his production has tapered off lately. It’s hard to know whether he’s just playing with less confidence or trying to facilitate more often, but his scoring and shot attempts are way down. This is a great spot for him, however, as the Clippers are near the bottom of the league against opposing point guards.

In the battle for shooting guard minutes, the Euro sensation Bogdan Bogdanovic (5700) is slowly winning his share back from Buddy Hield (6000). Both players got over 30 minutes of floor time in their last game, but Iman Shumpert was out in that game, so this is a situation we have to keep our eye on. I prefer to use B.B. here not only because he’s few hundred cheaper, I just think he’s a more dynamic player as he can shoot and run the offense as the primary ball-handler when Fox is off the floor.

The other Kings I’m interested in are young big men Marvin Bagley III (6700), the dynamic rookie who seen his role and minutes steadily increase in the last few weeks, and Harry Giles (4100). Giles has been playing very sporadic minutes at backup center but has flashed serious fantasy potential with his ability to score and defend. It was likely an outlier, but he is coming off a wild 44 FD point game against Utah in only 19 minutes. Perhaps that performance opened the eyes of his coach and earned him a few more minutes, putting him in play as a punt at his affordable price.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

I try to include as many of the players that I write-up in my lineups but at some point, you have to find value plays at certain positions to make everything fit. I’m not really into putting an entire “player pool” out there, I trust that you can fill in the spots in your roster with players that you like that I didn’t mention.

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It feels like a “stars and scrubs” kind of night with two of the three of Durant, Kawhi, and Lebron going in those two SF slots being a really attractive option. Don’t be afraid to punt one or two spots with the “drop your lowest score” format, you’re likely going to need the raw points from the stud small forwards tonight.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s one build that I am really like so far.

PG: Corey Joseph (4300)

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (5200)

SG: Bogdan Bogdanovic (5700)

SG: Aaron Holiday (4100)

SF: Kevin Durant (11500)

SF: Kawhi Leonard (10200)

PF: Domantas Sabonis (7500)

PF: Marvin Bagley III (6700)

C: Boban Marjanovic (4600)

That’s it! I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  Keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!