Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies: Week 13

Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 13

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story.
Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

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Pass Funnel Defenses:

CAR (Pass: 27th, Run: 7th), TEN (Pass: 25th, Run:11th), IND (Pass: 23rd, Run: 5th), NO (Pass: 21st, Run: 3rd), DAL (Pass: 20th, Run 8th), HOU (Pass: 14th, Run: 2nd)

Run Funnel Defenses:

KC (Pass: 13th, Run: 32nd), WAS (Pass: 12th, Run: 26th), LARM (Pass: 7th, Run: 29th), ARI (Pass: 9th, Run: 21st), CLE (Pass: 4th, Run: 25th), BUF (Pass: 1st, Run: 15th)

Arizona ranks 9th against the pass, but 21st against the run

Green Bay will play host to the visiting Arizona Cardinals, in a game in which the Packers are a two touchdown favorite. For fantasy purposes, targeting a home, favorite, running back is ideal, but this spot gets even better considering Arizona’s weaknesses. Arizona, is much more susceptible against the run, ranking 21st in overall efficiency. It makes sense, given the pass rush of the Cardinals (Arizona ranks 2nd in adjusted sack rate) and the play of defensive backs like Patrick Peterson. I would expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones in this game, not only due to the matchup, but there is a good chance that the game script should benefit him throughout the day.

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

ATL (32nd), TB (31st), DET (30th), OAK (29th), CIN (28th), NYG (27th)

New England ranks 19th in overall defensive efficiency

While New England isn’t necessarily near the bottom of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency, when you take a deeper look at who they have played, there may be some hope for the Minnesota offense. New England has faced the 10th easiest schedule of opponent offenses this season (Sharpfootballstats.com). If we narrow that down even further, we can see that in their last four games, the only difficult offense they faced was Green Bay in week nine. They faced Buffalo in week eight (ranked 31st in offensive efficiency), Tennessee in week ten (ranked 27th in offensive efficiency), and New York in week twelve (ranked 30th in offensive efficiency). I would expect Minnesota’s ground game to struggle as usual, but I think that the aerial attack of Minnesota could be successful. Sharp money has moved this number off of six, and there has also been a stream of money on the over.

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