NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday November 29

Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Wednesday Night’s NBA DFS slate for me was all about stacking the Pelicans and Wizards in what seemed like the ideal NBA DFS game environment. I assumed this game would be the chalk and in some ways it was as guys like Anthony Davis were over 60% owned but the other “high-end” plays in this game – John Wall, Bradley Beal and Jrue Holiday were interestingly only 10-15% owned which meant this game was far less chalky than I assumed it would be. Unfortunately for me, this game failed to deliver and AD was outscored by other stars like Russell Westbrook and James Harden by 20 fantasy points at lower ownership. Sometimes it pays to pivot I suppose!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Three Game Slate:

I have to admit, this looks like an awesome small slate for NBA DFS as even though we only have three games – we have so many ways we can go with our roster builds. We have stars like LeBron, KD, Kawhi and tons of injuries which open up value across the board and allow us the ability to fit these guys in with ease.

Stars to Build Around – LeBron, KD or Kawhi – or none?

On a three game slate like this, history would tell me to build my lineups around the top raw point plays on the board and tonight with injuries to guys like Steph Curry, Victor Oladipo and Draymond Green, it makes the true star pool all that thinner with LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard as the top three most expensive plays and also the top three FPPG performers this season.

The question you have to ask yourself tonight is – is there one stud you must have? Should you lock in two or even three or do you fade altogether and go more balanced? It is that decision that makes me like this slate as I think you can argue strongly in almost any direction.

The case for KD: This one is simple – Curry and Draymond are out meaning all the usage and the dude has gone for 70+ FPTS in two straight games.

The case against KD: Kawhi defense. In 12 career games against Kawhi (11 of which came with OKC), KD has never gone for more than 55 FPTS.

The case for LeBron: With Rajon Rondo out and Lonzo Ball questionable to play, we could get Point LeBron and the numbers show that when Rondo/Ball are both off the court this year, LeBron has a massive 43.1% usage rate while putting up 1.63 FP/M

The case against LeBron: In three of his last six games, LeBron has failed to top 40 fantasy points. If you invest nearly $20K of salary in him tonight at elevated ownership (as a result of the small player pool) and he “only” gets you 40 – you are cooked.

The case for Kawhi: Kawhi is coming off three straight double-doubles, comes at a near $3K discount off KD and Bron and just signed the hottest show deal on the planet.

The case against Kawhi: Paying a price that requires 50+ FPTS to pay it off – a number he has hit in only 5 of 16 games this season.

If we played this slate out 100 times, I could see the majority of those ending with these three players ending up as the top 3 plays from a raw point perspective and the truth is, on FantasyDraft, you can lock in all three and still have over $8K per player to fill out the rest of your line-up.

This Stars/Scrubs approach was one I used on Tuesday with LeBron at the center of it and it went down in flames when he could not crack 40 fantasy points so there is merit to going more balanced and fading the stars but there is risk that if these guys have one of their 70-80 point nights, well go ahead and start looking to Friday’s slate.

NBA DFS – Stack all three studs:

As I talk about each day here in Picks and Pivots, my goal is not to simply point out best plays but to walk through roster construction and give the readers something to consider as a possible route to go when building their DFS lineups.

I mentioned in the previous slide that there is a path to stacking all three of LeBron, KD and Kawhi in the same line-up on FantasyDraft and still having $8.8K per player for the other 5 games in your line-up and I think this is a roster build worth exploring.

One more “Stud”

It may seem like if you are going with this route to scroll down into the $8-9K price range first but there is one other player I simply am not passing on tonight that I need to add into this superstar build and that is Domanatas Sabonis ($13.8K) who has gone for 40+ fantasy points in 4 of the 6 games that Victor Oladipo has missed in the last two weeks. Since that game on 11/17 against the Hawks where Dipo left after only 4 minutes of court time, Sabonis has been on another planet – racking up an elite 1.58 FP/M of production and although his price continues to rise, still leaves you ample room for profit.

OK….now what?

So now that I have added Sabonis to my Core Four, the average salary remaining per play has dropped just under $7.6K and this is where we find ourselves living in value town but there are ample options in this range we can utilize in my opinion.

Stay in Indiana where Oladipo remains out where the remaining Pacers players have really stepped up outside of Sabonis and Myles Turner (1.43 FP/M the last two games). Darren Collison ($9K) is coming off back to back 35+ fantasy point game which would return nearly 4x value at this price point and he remains far too cheap for his role and recent production. Doug McDermott ($7.2K) has been a scoring machine the last two games, putting up 1.3 FP/M, scoring 21 actual points in each game and averaging roughly 30 FPTS per outing. What really stands out to me with Dougie McBuckets is that he has 12 and 13 FGA in the last two games and his emergence has coincided with Tyreke Evans fading away despite the absence of Oladipo.

On the other side of this game, if Lonzo Ball does miss, it will likely be Josh Hart ($7K) who steps into the starting lineup as Hart was the direct sub for Lonzo in their last game when he came out with an injury. There is a clear path with both Lakers PG’s likely out for Hart to play major minutes here and his price point most certainly does not reflect that opportunity.

NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:

With so much focus on LeBron and KD versus Kawhi, I wonder if this Clippers/Kings game becomes the forgotten spot on a three game slate. The fact that it has the highest Vegas total at 235 and the fastest projected pace makes this a great mid-tier game stack if you opt to fade the higher priced stars on this slate.

Over the last five games the Kings are playing at the 2nd fastest pace while the Clippers are 9th in the NBA so this has all the makings of a game environment we can stack up. The majority of the usage and fantasy production is centered around a few core plays on either side which makes this a game stack that is cost-effective and relatively clear to build as you can lock in Tobias Harris, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell on the Clippers side and run it back with the Kings trio of Willie Cauley-Stein, De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield.

If you look at this build, you can see a roster that is balanced and has guys with solid floors and likely 40 fantasy point outcomes with the only downside being that it lacks the upside to match if any of the studs go off. You are taking the calculated risk in this build that LeBron, KD and Kawhi stay in check and your more balanced build at lower ownership can overtake the Stars/Scrubs approach.

With Marcin Gortat missing last night’s game with back spasms, we saw the return of BOBAN, as he did his usual – racking up a double-double (12/12) in only 19 minutes of court time. and at $7.1K, there are very few players with the upside of Boban Marjanovic. There is some risk here with the back to back, but Boban has already played on a B2B (11/1-11/2) and played 20+ minutes in each game and went for 27 and 38 FPTS in those games.

Iman Shumpert ($7K) should be back after missing Sunday’s back to back due to rest and this is a player locked into major minutes, 27-29 in 3 straight and is averaging over 27 fantasy points per game in his last three outings.

Personally, this game to me is more a game stack spot if you are rolling out more than 1 line-up, otherwise I am looking at it as a spot to grab value with guys like Boban and Shumpert.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

This lineup is meant for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to be a plug and play option. 

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G: Darren Collison

G: Iman Shumpert

G: Josh Hart

F/C: Kevin Durant

F/C: LeBron James

F/C: Kawhi Leonard

UTIL: Domanatas Sabonis

UTIL: Boban Marjanovic

Slate Overview: At first glance, I think a three stud lineup (four if you want to include Sabonis), is a totally viable route on this slate with the value we have already on the board. Guys like Collison, Shumpert and Hart (assuming Lonzo is out) should have a clear path to 25-30 minutes and if we get another Boban start, he will be a must have chalk piece you likely just have to eat. Enjoy this slate all – it looks to be a good one.

Last but not least – we have some exciting news as the folks at FantasyDraft have been kind enough to sponsor a Picks and Pivots Free Roll – well technically two! The first one filled so quickly that they were kind enough to create another one which will award THREE $25 Pick and Roll tickets to tomorrow’s NBA slate. Get in now!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day.