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Nylon Calculus: How close is Myles Turner to a breakthrough?

By Sebastian Pycior

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 4: Myles Turner #33 of the Indiana Pacers shoots the ball against the Washington Wizards on March 4, 2018 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 4: Myles Turner #33 of the Indiana Pacers shoots the ball against the Washington Wizards on March 4, 2018 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Indiana Pacers have had a decent start to the 2018-19 NBA Season. They currently hold the No. 4 seed in the East and boast one of the NBA’s best defenses. On offense, however, the Pacers are scoring about 109.5 points per 100 possessions, ranking 19th in the NBA.

Teams depend on key cogs of their machine to step up when it matters most. In Myles Turner, fans have been waiting for his emergence for at least two years, especially on the offensive end. The expectations are deservedly high, as he has every physical attribute needed to succeed on both ends.

Him improving is key because realizing his potential is one of the few obvious paths the Pacers have towards raising their ceiling. As a jump-shooting big man, he could be special in the mold of the modern big man. But his jumper, perhaps the most intriguing part of his player profile, seems to have largely abandoned him this year.

Is he still aggressive?

Myles Turner hasn’t been able to replicate his solid sophomore year and has virtually run into a wall on the offensive end this year. Currently, Myles ranks as having one of the lowest O-PIPM marks in the NBA.

After a promising campaign in his sophomore season, fans were right in thinking they had a budding star gracing Bankers Life Fieldhouse. What they have instead right now is a defensive big man who can’t hit from the outside. He’s still been effective around the basket but appears to be far less aggressive.

He’s never been a posterizer, but in his first three seasons, Turner averaged about 0.77 made dunks per game. This year, he’s halved that at about 0.30 made dunks per game. Just 3.7 percent of his 2-point field goal attempts are dunks this season, a sizable drop-off from 9.5 percent over the past two seasons.

This could mean that defenses are learning to push him out or have ceased to front the big man, and simply live with Myles Turner handling in the post. He’s seen a dip in his attempts right underneath the hoop while attempting more shots from 3-16 feet.

Turner is also struggling to get any physicality working for him. He’s only drawing 1.2 fouls per game as opposed to 1.56 per game in his first three seasons. Per 100 possessions, Turner’s down a free throw attempt this year, too.

His shot chart tells a tale of Turner sticking to what’s tried and true for him. He’s still shooting better than league average down low, and he’s sticking to the areas around the free throw line whenever he’s been on fire. One thing’s for certain, questions on aggressiveness aside, Turner is still playing well within the 3-point line. It doesn’t look like he’s doing anything wrong with decision-making, which is a positive sign.

Shooting the 3

But as you can tell, Turner is cold from deep and weird home/road splits seem to be a big part of it. On the road, he’s an appalling 11.3 percent from deep, while making 38.5 percent at the Fieldhouse. Actually, before their last game against the Phoenix Suns, Turner was shooting 6 percent from deep on the road. His splits are similar for wins and losses.

dark. Next. Who is the better pull-up shooter, Darius Garland or Coby White?

The thing is, the sample is still small enough that if he’d made just 4-5 more 3s this season the picture would look very different. Intriguingly then, Turner is truly just a 3 away from turning his season right around. The Pacers are 5-1 this season when Turner just makes a 3. He shot about 35 percent from deep last season on the road and at home, and he did hit about one per game. Given his increased efficiencies down low, being more consistent from deep could help Turner, and the Pacers, finally break through.

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