Alaves host Sevilla in surprise top four clash
Alaves can leapfrog Sevilla with a win in a clash between the two surprises of the season.
La Liga has thrown up plenty of surprises this season, but the two most surprising sides are surely Sevilla and Alaves, in first and fourth place respectively after 13 games. Sevilla are certainly doing well to be where they are, but they have a squad that was always capable of challenging for the final Champions League spot or the Europa League places, whereas Alaves were expected to fight relegation or finish near the middle of the table at best.
Abelardo Fernandez has done a fantastic job since joining the club in December. They were in last place at that point, and their success this season has been remarkable. It’s been built on solid home form as they’re unbeaten in six games at the Mendizorroza, so they’ll be hoping to utilize this against a Sevilla side that have been liberated by Pablo Machin’s ideas. No side has been dominant away from home, Sevilla included, which hands the advantage to Alaves.
Based on xG, Sevilla’s success is a lot more sustainable. They’re slightly underperforming in front of goal and overperforming defensively whereas, Alaves are overperforming significantly in both areas, per Understat. Therefore, they should start to regress at some point, but the confidence flowing through the team means it could take a while for this to happen. The goals have been shared across the team, so they aren’t reliant on one player for the goals either.
Sevilla’s early-season momentum seemed to have been ended as Barcelona beat them 4-2 to go top of the table and bring some semblance of normality back to the standings. However, since then Los Hispalenses have gone on a seven-game unbeaten run across all competitions and the win over Real Valladolid last weekend moved them back ahead of the Catalans, who drew away at Atletico Madrid. Alaves, on the other hand, have lost two of their last five league games, although they were both away from home.
Last season, home advantage was key, as both sides 1-0. They’ve only met four times in recent seasons due to Alaves being outside of the top division for a while — Sevilla hold the advantage with two wins to Alaves’ one.
Next. 25 best club soccer teams of all time. dark
Sevilla’s 3-5-2 is perfectly set up to take advantage of Alaves’ narrow 4-4-2 due to the numerical advantage it provides in midfield while still having two strikers to occupy the defense. They have a really creative midfield; Pablo Sarabia, Ever Banega and either Franco Vazquez or Roque Mesa are the usual trio. This could also, however, be a potential defensive weakness for Alaves to exploit with direct play or quick transitions.
Machin uses Sarabia as a central midfielder in the defensive shape, but he has the license to roam as a third runner. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Alaves mostly stay in a low block in order to negate Sevilla’s counter-attacking prowess. Andre Silva, Wissam Ben Yedder and Sarabia all come into this match in top form, so there will be a multitude of threats for Alaves to handle. Jony has two goals in his last three games for Alaves, so he’s likely to be their main threat.