DFS NFL Game by Game Breakdown, Week 13
For the first time in a long time, we don’t have to worry about bye weeks and have a full 13 game slate this week for the Week 13 DFS NFL slate!
This DFS NFL slate is going to be a ton of fun just because we have more options than normal. Well, at least more than the last few weeks. A whopping 13 game slate is in front of us and before we dive in, I want to apologize for it being out late. The real life job has ramped up so the publish date might be different the rest of the season, but be assured this article won’t go anywhere before the season ends. Let’s go to work!
DFS NFL – Ravens at Falcons
Ravens Defensive Ranks
QB – 9th, 16.0 RB – 1st, 13.6 WR – 6th, 19.3 TE – 18th, 8.1
The Atlanta offense isn’t one that I’ll be heavily invested in this week since the Ravens defense is one of the better ones in football. Matt Ryan is averaging 29.1 DK points at home and gets a significant price discount to boot. He would be GPP only for me but I will almost surely have a share of a good quarterback in his home digs. The Baltimore defense isn’t totally immune to giving up points to a quarterback. If I play Ryan, odds are I’m stacking him with Julio Jones. If DK is going to put Jones under $8,000 at home, I’m playing him at least once against any corner in football. Jones has been under 21 DK points exactly once in the past eight games. Since the Ravens defense is good, players like Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley and Tevin Coleman really aren’t on my radar. There’s not much of a need to get too cute on a 13 game slate.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Ryan, Jones
Falcons Defensive Ranks
QB – 31st, 22.7 RB – 29th, 23.9 WR – 30th, 27.9 TE – 11th, 6.3
As of this writing, Lamar Jackson is scheduled to start and makes a ton of sense as a cash quarterback. There are only five teams that have given up more rushing yards to quarterbacks so far this year, which definitely could be a boon for Jackson. He hasn’t even played all that well and still has managed at least 19 DK points in both starts so far. If he finds some efficiency through the air or has to play for more points, there could be a nice ceiling for Jackson here as well. I think Gus Edwards is fully in play since he’s still under $5,000. While the Falcons are known for giving up production to receiving backs, they’re also giving up the eighth most rushing yards per game and 13 touchdowns on the ground. I would not play a wide receiver in this one unless you feel very risky. John Brown, Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree have a combined 25 targets in two weeks between the three of them. That’s not a recipe for fantasy points.
Cash Plays – Jackson, Edwards
GPP Plays – Brown could get loose for a big play but it’s hard to get excited
DFS NFL – Panthers at Buccaneers
Panthers Defensive Ranks
QB – 27th, 19.9 RB – 9th, 16.3 WR – 18th, 25.1 TE – 32nd, 11.6
Jameis Winston played well last week and most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over. I would suspect there’s a longer rope in this spot so you can feel at least a little more comfortable using him this week. The question is who would you play with him and aside from spending up for Mike Evans, the answer might be Cameron Brate. Carolina has belt points to tight ends all season and Brate caught a touchdown from Winston last week, like he always does. Evans himself was awful in the first game against the Panthers but I wouldn’t be too concerned here. Give him another 10 targets and he’ll be fine this time around. Adam Humphries and Chris Godwin are both cheap, and Godwin actually saw the field for over 65 percent of the snaps last week. Keep an eye on DeSean Jackson as these two would be more attractive if he missed with his thumb injury. Peyton Barber will get the volume but has a tough spot and isn’t a personal play.
Cash Options – Winston, Evans, Brate
GPP Options – Humphries, Godwin
Buccaneers Defensive Ranks
QB – 30th, 22.1 RB – 25th, 23.3 WR – 27th, 27.3 TE – 30th, 10.3
The biggest question is can you pay the price for Christian McCaffrey fresh off his monster game of 50+ DK points last week in another smash spot this week. He went nuts the first time around against Tampa with over 30 DK points and the only small fear is Cam Newton poaches his touchdowns in close. However, it is fair to note that McCaffrey has a little over double the amount of red zone carries than Newton this season. DJ Moore seen 17 targets the past two weeks and if Devin Funchess is out again, I’m willing to pay the price since he got the Tampa bump. Funchess did not practice Wednesday and Moore is ascending in this offense. Greg Olsen has been under 60 yards in every game he’s played except one….against the Bucs. This whole Carolina offense could go nuts and I would not take anything away from Tampa holding the 49ers to under 10 points last week.
Cash Plays – McCaffrey, Newton, Moore(if Funchess out)
GPP Plays – Olsen, Curtis Samuel(if Funchess out), Funchess if he’s in
DFS NFL – Bears at Giants
Bears Defensive Ranks
QB – 3rd, 15.2 RB – 3rd, 13.8 WR – 15th, 23.7 TE – 9th, 5.9
There’s not a lot from the Giants that I’m going to chase but really, how often are we going to get Saquon Barkley under $8,000? Yes, the Bears defense is good but Barkley is on another level. He could see 6-8 receptions alone just because of the pressure the Bears can generate. Barkley was smashing the Philly defense for the second time this season before he got just six second half touches last week. You can always take a chance with Odell Beckham and you’ll get him at low ownership. He fell flat in a fantastic spot last week so people won’t be eager to go back to him. With Beckham, he can easily take a slant to the house against any defense so it’s strictly a GPP play. It would appear that Even Engram will not play but I’m not willing to bump any Giants player significantly in this spot.
Cash Plays – Barkley
GPP Plays – Beckham
Giants Defensive Ranks
QB – 11th, 16.7 RB – 22nd, 21.5 WR – 9th, 21.3 TE – 16th, 7.7
It would appear that Mitchell Trubisky is not going to suit up for this game and that will likely lead some to use Chase Daniel again at a very cheap price. I will grant that the price is attractive, but I’m not sure he’ll catch lightning in a bottle twice. I would view him more as a GPP candidate than a cash play because the floor is probably lower than some might think. To me, that puts Tarik Cohen firmly on the radar although he’s been under 55 percent snaps for 4 straight weeks. The plus side to that lower than I’d like snaps is he co-led the team in targets on Thanksgiving and I would expect that again this week. The Giants are tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns given up to the running back. A very dicey GPP play is Jordan Howard, who hasn’t eclipsed 63 rushing yards in the past month. Other than last week, he’s seen double digit rush attempts every game of the year and the Giants rush defense has been a sieve since they traded Damon Harrison. If Daniel does start as expected, I would only feel comfortable using Taylor Gabriel and hope he can make a play with the ball in his hand. Allen Robinson and Trey Burton could see targets but it’s tough to know game to game who’s going to get work, especially with a backup quarterback.
Cash Plays – Cohen
GPP Plays – Daniel, Howard, Gabriel, Burton, Robinson
DFS NFL – Bills at Dolphins
Bills Defensive Ranks
QB – 1st, 12.6 RB – 23rd, 21.6 WR – 1st, 17.5 TE – 8th, 5.9
I really do dislike the Dolphins offense. No player really sees reliable targets that you can bank on every week, although they do have options in Danny Amendola and DeVante Parker. The running back situation is infuriating every week because even though Kenyan Drake is clearly the more dynamic player, we get double-digit Frank Gore carries. You can make an argument that Gore is a viable punt option because you’ll be hard pressed to find a player that touches the ball as much as he does for $3,500 or less. Buffalo is about average from a rush yards per game perspective but they have given up 12 rushing touchdowns. If Gore got one and 40 yards rushing, that’s all you would need.
If you have the stomach for it, Drake is a good GPP play. The Bills have given up 60 receptions to backs so Drake has a lot of potential through the air. You just know you could be sitting there in the fourth quarter with seven total touches because that’s what the Dolphins do. He’s also got a shoulder injury so there’s risk from that angle as well. If Amendola and Parker would miss, that would leave the receivers down to Kenny Stills and Leonte Caroo. I wish it wasn’t the Bills secondary, otherwise they could be realistic options.
Cash Plays – Dolphins D/ST
GPP Plays – Gore, Drake, keep track how the receivers shake out
Dolphins Defensive Ranks
QB – 10th, 16.4 RB – 27th, 23.4 WR – 11th, 22.2 TE – 26th, 9.6
If Josh Allen was a little cheaper, he would have been a legitimate punt option just due to rushing upside. He’s actually a very gifted athlete for all the criticism he takes and he could be interesting if the Bills ever get some weapons. However, for this week his floor is terrifyingly low. Even with a 36.3 rushing yards per game to prop up his points, getting at least 16 DK points from him is a risky proposition. LeSean McCoy is the only other Bills player that I would take a risk on as the Dolphins have given up the fourth most rushing yards on the season. They’ve been a defense we target with backs all year and McCoy will certainly get his touches in a game that should stay competitive. In addition, the Dolphins give up 5.5 receptions a game which really boosts McCoy on DK.
Cash Plays – Bills D/ST
GPP Plays – Allen, McCoy
DFS NFL – Broncos at Bengals
Broncos Defensive Ranks
QB – 14th, 17.2 RB – 20th, 19.8 WR – 16th, 24.4 TE – 23rd, 9.1
On the Bengals side, I might be all the way out. I’m not sure I want to trust any kind of money with Jeff Driskel, regardless of how he looked in relief last week. The Broncos have had time to prepare for him now so even though A.J. Green has said he’ll play, Driskel is likely not for me. Joe Mixon is too expensive for anything but GPP but the reception floor is nice in a game that the Bengals could be chasing points. Mixon has a target share of 13 percent and could see plenty of looks in this game. Tyler Boyd had a big time game last week and now gets Green back to take some defensive attention so he’s a nice volume play while Green is strictly large field GPP. The last part of the passing game is C.J. Uzomah, who was wildly inefficient last week on 12 targets. He’s cheap enough to warrant consideration against a Denver team that’s mid pack against the position, but not much else.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Boyd, Green, Mixon, Uzomah
Bengals Defensive Ranks
QB – 32nd, 23.5 RB – 32nd, 26.7 WR – 20th, 25.2 TE – 29th, 10.1
I’m actually a little scared of how much I love the Broncos this week but I can’t really help it. I think that Phillip Lindsay is one of the best plays of the entire slate when we take into account price, potential and match-up. Lindsay is getting red zone work ahead of Royce Freeman and the Bengals have the second worst rushing defense in football on a per game basis. Lindsay has been in the double digits of DK points for 10 of 11 games, which is fantastic consistency. Jeff Heuerman had almost 13 percent target share until his injury this past week and little known Matt Lacosse is next man up and is the bare minimum. He’s averaging 12.2 yards per catch in a very small sample size but the Bengals have been gouged by tight ends for over 800 yards and eight touchdowns. Even Case Keenum and the passing game could be used because the Bengals are giving up the second most passing yards and the third most plays of 20+ yards. Emmanuel Sanders is the go to receiver of course but this could finally be a Courtland Sutton game since he specializes on big plays. It seems odd to say but I think you can go full Broncos stack in GPP formats.
Cash Plays – Lindsay, LaCosse, Sanders, Keenum
GPP Plays – Sutton
DFS NFL – Rams at Lions
Rams Defensive Ranks
QB – 23rd, 19.3 RB – 15th, 18.4 WR – 28th, 27.4 TE – 21st, 9.0
This could be a long day for the Lions in real life but it could also set up perfectly for some garbage time heroics. Kenny Golladay is it as far as known quantity in the receiving corps and has weeks of 13, 14 and eight targets the past three games. He should easily see that number again, regardless of whether Aqib Talib is active or not. Golladay is going to get the headlines but I think Bruce Ellington might be a staple of my cash game lineups. He’s seen 16 total targets the past two weeks and those games were competitive with Matthew Stafford throwing 75 times. That’s slightly over a 22 percent market share and Ellington is only $3,500 on DK which is the better site for him anyways. Theo Riddick could see additional targets as well, dictated by game script since the Rams are heavy favorites. He’s been very steady in that department with 29 over the last four weeks. I flat refuse to chase LeGarrette Blount in this spot.
Cash Plays – Golladay, Ellington, Riddick
GPP Plays – Stafford
Lions Defensive Ranks
QB – 22nd, 19.3 RB – 24th, 21.7 WR – 19th, 25.1 TE – 14th, 7.2
Any Ram you want is on the table in this spot since they’re coming off the bye week and the offense is as healthy as they can get. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods both saw double-digit targets the week before the bye and are some of the safer plays this week. Josh Reynolds saw eight targets and flat-out looked good but if there’s a candidate to see fewer targets, it’s him. Todd Gurley is healthy and should resume his normal role. I also don’t think this one goes over 100 points like the last Rams game so the need to throw the ball 49 times probably isn’t there. I would prefer to play Gerald Everett if you go with a tight end. Yes, Tyler Higbee had more targets but I think Everett has the higher upside of those two players. It’s the Rams, you don’t need to get too worried about playing any of them with extra time to prepare.
Cash Plays – Goff, Gurley, Woods, Cooks
GPP Plays – Reynolds, Everett, Higbee, Rams D/ST
DFS NFL – Cardinals at Packers
Cardinals Defensive Ranks
QB – 5th, 15.3 RB – 31st, 26.6 WR – 12th, 22.3 TE – 7th, 5.8
Aaron Jones might be a close second to my favorite play after Lindsay in this spot. He gets to be at home as a monster favorite and then has one of the better matchups a running back could have. The Cards are giving up the third most yards and the most touchdowns to running backs while Jones has hit at least 18.3 DK points the past three weeks. He’s also achieved workhorse-level snap counts, being n the field over 75 percent of the time. You can easily stack Jones and the packers defense for a nice correlation play. As odd as it seems to say, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been worth the spend too often this year. The passing game is stagnant past Davante Adams. He is a nice GPP pivot to other options but Patrick Peterson lurks. I tend to think Adams can still get his but I wouldn’t find out in cash. Green Bay is not functioning at a level that I would use complimentary pieces at this point.
Cash Plays – Jones, Packers D/ST
GPP Plays – Rodgers, Adams
Packers Defensive Ranks
QB – 15th, 17.4 RB – 17th, 19.1 WR – 29th, 27.8 TE – 5th, 5.1
This could be another team that I use basically nobody from, if at all. The Cardinals offense just isn’t trustworthy which is a shame to scratch off David Johnson. He’s going to see volume of touches but the question is can he do anything with them in an offense that’s dead last insuring this year? Larry Fitzgerald had a surge when the team switched coordinators and then went right back to just six targets the past two weeks while Christian Kirk has seen 10. I really can’t see why I’m using Cardinals when their quarterback has only completed 21 of 39 passes the past two games. That makes life impossible for the whole offense.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Johnson
DFS NFL – Browns at Texans
Browns Defensive Ranks
QB – 18th, 17.9 RB – 26th, 23.3 WR – 22nd, 25.5 TE – 20th, 8.6
Perhaps the most surprising thing to me when I looked at the Texans side of the game was the fact that they are third in the league in rushing attempts. I just wouldn’t have guessed that had I not looked. Fresh off a game where he rushed for 162 yards, Lamar Miller is a very attractive cash play against a defense that is giving up fifth most yards per game and second most touchdowns. His volume is secure and it would be best to ignore the game logs. One game was designed to get him some rest and this past week the Texans had the game well in hand. These past two weeks have been quiet for DeAndre Hopkins and that goes hand in hand with the rushing attempts. He’s likely not someone I’m paying up for this week, though he can go off any given week. Keep and eye on Keke Coutee. If he misses, Demaryius Thomas and his five targets from last week become interesting at the deflated price tag. Deshaun Watson is on the board every week with his upside but I will reserve him for GPP this week.
Cash Plays – Miller, possibly Thomas
GPP Plays – Watson, Hopkins
Texans Defensive Ranks
QB – 2nd, 14.9 RB – 8th, 15.9 WR – 2nd, 18.3 TE – 27th, 9.8
The Cleveland offense has really been on fire since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were let go and it’s hard to think that’s a coincidence. However, it’s very relevant to point out the matchups they had in that span. Home against Kansas City and Atlanta and then just down the road at Cincinnati is a pretty nice three week stretch for any offense. The road is a lot tougher this week and I’ll be shying away from the Browns after riding a Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb stack last week. You can play Chubb in GPP but the elevated(and fair) price tag along with a matchup against a defense that is giving up the seventh least rushing yards in the league keeps him away from cash. Since the passing game has been so spread out among different targets, there’s no need to chase any player and I will pass on Mayfield in a difficult spot.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Chubb, Mayfield in very large GPP, David Njoku
DFS NFL – Colts at Jaguars
Colts Defensive Ranks
QB – 117th, 7.6 RB – 19.2 WR – 7th, 20.3 TE – 17th, 8.1
The Jaguars couldn’t walk into this game as a much bigger dumpster fire. This week they’ve benched their starting quarterback, fired their offensive coordinator, lost their star free agent signing offensive guard for the season and their starting running back to suspension for leaving the bench and throwing hands in Buffalo. Oh, they’ve also lost seven straight games but other than that, everything is peachy. I think the backs will gain some attention and of the two I think I prefer T.J. Yeldon over Carlos Hyde. Still, it’s hard to peg which back you’d feel totally comfortable with since there’s a new OC in town. If the Colts can put up points, Yeldon has far more potential in the passing game than Hyde does. I won’t go to Cody Kessler or any receivers this week. Maybe if the passing offense shows some life, they can be in play next week.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Yeldon, Hyde
Jaguars Defensive Ranks
QB – 16th, 17.4 RB – 4th, 13.8 WR – 5th, 19.2 TE – 20th, 9.0
Andrew Luck is under $6,00 so he is well worth a shot in part because he’s white-hot. His streak of games with three or more passing touchdowns has reached eight and I’m really not overly concerned with the Jaguars defense at this point of the season. Marlon Mack was a full participant in Thursday’s practice so I would lean towards him playing. If not, Nyheim Hines would be the favorite to take the lead in the backfield but it would be some type of split between he and Jordan Wilkins. I’m not sure that’s a direction that I would go. Basically all of the tight ends behind Eric Ebron are questionable and that’s something to monitor with Jack Doyle being out for the season. Whoever suits up is a viable punt for minimum price. Luck has thrown close to 60 percent of his touchdowns to tight ends this season. T.Y. Hilton is on track to play but is nothing more than a GPP target if Jalen Ramsey plays. If Ramsey sits, the interest picks up considerably since Hilton has 21 percent target share and 13 targets in the red zone.
Cash Plays – Colts D/ST, Luck, Ebron
GPP Plays – Hilton, second tight end, potentially Mack
DFS NFL – Jets at Titans
Jets Defensive Ranks
QB – 13th, 16.9 RB – 21st, 20.9 WR – 25th, 26.0 TE – 10th, 6.1
This game is fairly ugly but the interest on this side of the ball is clear – contrarian stack of Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis. The Jets have been getting smashed but wide receivers and before these past two weeks, Davis was leading the league in target share. I still believe that the target drop is more an anomaly than anything else and he gets to head home to a great matchup. He might be a little lower owned since he’s back to back in salary with D.J. Moore in a spotlight game. The running backs are back to an even split with so I can’t really get on board with Dion Lewis or Derrick Henry in this game. Additionally, I won’t chase the big Jonnu Smith game off two targets. He’s a fine play since tight end is tough but don’t expect another 14+ DK points. I think the Titans offense is a total avoid other than a potential Mariota/Davis stack this week. The Titans defense is a very solid option since the Jets have sub-par quarterback play regardless of who starts.
Cash Plays – Titans D/ST
GPP Plays – Mariota, Davis
Titans Defensive Ranks
QB – 6th, 15.7 RB – 6th, 15.2 WR – 23rd, 25.8 TE – 1st, 3.4
The Jets offense is really in a tough spot this week. Do I wish I could trust Jermaine Kearse or Quincy Enunwa this week since Tennessee struggles against receivers? I sure do but they can’t be called trustworthy at all. Kearse has the total target lead but also has played one more game so it’s likely they’d be dead even in the same playing time. One of them should hit but projecting which one is much tougher. Chris Herndon has at least 34 yards or a touchdown in six straight games but the Titans represent the toughest matchup he could have. They’ve yet to allow a touchdown or 400 yards to tight ends all season. Elijah McGuire has out-snapped Isaiah Crowell these past two games but has yet to be productive with the playing time. Overall, I have very limited interest in the Jets offense this week.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Kearse, Enunwa, McGuire
DFS NFL – Chiefs at Raiders
Chiefs Defensive Ranks
QB – 28th, 20.7 RB – 30th, 26.0 WR – 14th, 22.8 TE – 31st, 10.4
The Raiders should be trailing early and often in this one which means there’s a very limited amount of players that I want and they’re all pass catchers. You could go Jalen Richard with a 17 percent target share and he should see plenty of snaps in the passing game. Maybe Jared Cook gets his since the Chiefs haven’t had much luck against tight ends so far. You can really reach down low and possibly punt with Marcell Ateman, who has 15 targets over the past two weeks but for only 9.0 and 4.6 DK points. It’s a dicey bet but just like the Lions, garbage time beckons.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Richard, Ateman, Cook
Raiders Defensive Ranks
QB – 21st, 18.8 RB – 28th, 23.5 WR – 16th, 24.4 TE – 26th, 9.5
Pick a Chief, any Chief! Seriously, any Kansas City player is on the board this week. Yes, most of them are expensive so maybe you could argue that Kareem Hunt is the best play off the Chiefs offense. He should be at least $800 more expensive given averaging over 18 touches a game in the second highest scoring offense in football. I find myself wanting to pair Ellington from the Lions and Tyreek Hill an awful lot this week. Oakland is dead last in sacks with a paltry 10 all season. They can’t get pressure on Patrick Mahomes which means they can’t cover Hill for very long. The home/road splits are interesting as well. Away from Arrowhead, Hill is averaging 7.0 receptions(4.6 at home), 123.2 yards(73.4 at home) and eight touchdowns(three at home) in six games. I might try to figure out a way to play Mahomes, Hill and Travis Kelce all in one this week but remain undecided. I also like the Chiefs defense a good deal due to price and sack upside. Lastly, Andy Reid is 16-3 in his career after the bye week. The Chiefs are in a total smash spot here.
Cash Plays – Mahomes, Hunt, Hill, Kelce, Chiefs D/ST
GPP Plays – Chris Conley is Sammy Watkins misses
DFS NFL – Vikings at Patriots
Vikings Defensive Ranks
QB – 8th, 15.9 RB – 5th, 15.2 WR – 4th, 18.9 TE – 13th, 7.1
The Patriots are interesting here because the offense isn’t exactly hitting the way we’re accustomed to. The Vikings say Xavier Rhodes wasn’t that badly injured Sunday night and if they’re being honest, that could open things up for Julian Edelman if Rhodes sticks on Josh Gordon. It was a low volume passing attack last week and Rob Gronkowski led the way in targets but he’s looking like he’s not 100 percent still. There’s going to be a game where he makes me look really stupid and goes full Gronk SMASH but I’m not buying the bait this week unless it’s a GPP. Sony Michel is going to get work and is a nice GPP option with at least 14 carries in five of seven games. Rex Burkhead is back in the fold but I would be surprised if he ate into Michel’s workload in this game. The Patriots offense is totally healthy for the first time in a long time but I’m a little unsure of where to go. Edelman seems like the safest bet and feel free to utilize some stacks in tournaments. Just beware that Tom Brady has been very poor for fantasy for weeks now.
Cash Plays – Edelman
GPP Plays – Brady, Gronkowski, Gordon(cash if Rhodes is out, Michel, White
Patriots Defensive Ranks
QB – 24th, 19.3 RB – 12th, 17.6 WR – 13th, 22.5 TE – 28th, 10.2
The Minnesota situation is still very much up in the air. Stefon Diggs hasn’t practiced yet but claims he’s going to play. Of course the player says he’ll be on the field but this is a major concern for this offense. I’ve said it all season – Diggs and Adam Thielen are fantastic in their own right. Part of their success is the fact they get to play together. They’ve combined for over 54 percent of the total targets on Minnesota. If Diggs is out or limited, that makes it easier for the Patriots to guard Thielen and would take me off him and Kirk Cousins. Maybe that puts Kyle Rudolph on the radar but the only other game Diggs missed, Rudolph did a whole lot of nothing for just 4.8 DK points. Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray split is much to close for me to feel comfortable with Cook leading 60/40 precent in snaps last week. If Diggs is healthy, I love Cousins at a very affordable price. We’ll have to see how the next couple of days unfolds.
Cash Plays – Cousins, Thielen, Diggs if everyone is healthy
GPP Plays – Cook, Rudolph
DFS NFL – 49ers at Seahawks
49ers Defensive Ranks
QB – 25th, 19.7 RB – 16th, 19.1 WR – 26th, 26.1 TE – 15th, 7.2
The Seattle offense might be overlooked but they’re in a very solid spot and I’m fairly interested here. San Francisco has been solid against running backs but the volume is just way too high to ignore for Chris Carson. Seattle runs the ball more than any other team in football and Chris Carson is going to get the majority of that work. He’s affordable on top of that. I’ve given up saying Russell Wilson can’t keep up his efficiency because he’s been doing it all season. The volume is low but Wilson really is that good and just scores touchdown after touchdown.
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The best receivers to pair with Wilson might just be David Moore and Tyler Lockett. They make big plays all the time and their low target count needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the offense they play in. The 49ers defense has a significant weakness through the air, although Richard Sherman is certainly looking forward to taking a shot at Wilson. The Seahawks offense is a very solid option this week all the way around.
Cash Plays – Wilson, Carson, Seahawks D/ST
GPP Plays – Moore, Lockett, Baldwin
Seahawks Defensive Ranks
QB – 7th, 15.8 RB – 19th, 19.7 WR – 21st, 25.4 TE – 3rd, 4.9
I’m frankly a little surprised Nick Mullens is still going to start this game at quarterback given ho w poor he played in Tampa. I really don’t love the 49ers offense, depending whether you’re going to play GPP’s or not. In cash there’s not much here but in GPP, you could take a stab at Matt Breida. The frustrating part of Breida last week was how few snaps he played. He didn’t even clear 50 percent and was extremely efficient in his touches.
George Kittle will likely not be popular after his ver mediocre game last week but he saw another 12 targets. That’s gold for tight ends and shouldn’t be overlooked. Given the quarterback situation, I would rather not play any other receiving option in this matchup.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Breida, Kittle
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