DraftKings NBA Picks November 30: Is Embiid safer than Davis?

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 29: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers celebrates his three pointer during a 104-96 win over the Indiana Pacers at Staples Center on November 29, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks November 30: Is Embiid safer than Davis?

We are back to a big 11 game DraftKings NBA slate tonight. Only the Lakers are playing a back to back. It is worth checking on the status of Ball or King James as we get closer to lock just to see if either one is going to be limited. As usual, there are stars all over the place. Where should we spend our cap?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,500): So, Lillard was a big fade for me on Wednesday since the Magic have handled PG’s well this year. He lit them up for 41 points and 66.5 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. So maybe it’s location. Lillard must like home cooking. I don’t really want to pay up for Russ. He’s going to have a big game against Atlanta, but how big? How much will the Thunder play him in what likely will be a blowout? It’s probably better to take a chance on Lillard is what should be a high scoring game in the Land.

Kyrie Irving ($9,300): Twitter will be abuzz with revenge narratives tonight, and maybe it means less without LeBron there, but I’m pretty sure Kyrie is still a little torqued at the organization. That could fuel him, but this is also a game that Boston should win easily. I would guess Irving has trouble playing much more than 30 minutes in this one.

Honorable Mention:

Jrue Holiday ($8,700): The Heat have struggled against opposing point guards with Dragic and Johnson out. That could mean another nice game for Jrue, especially since the Miami forwards play good defense. This could be the spot to jump on Jrue in an up tempo game where the bigs could be challenged.

Mike Conley ($8,300): If there is such thing as chalk on an 11 game slate, I think a lot of people are going to jump on the Nets suck bandwagon and lock in Conley and Gasol. It’s hard to argue with that logic. The Nets are bottom five in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Conley also has at least 45 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. It’s lining up to be another big one for Conley.

Trae Young ($6,400): This is Young’s first trip back to his hometown and where he played college basketball for the University of Oklahoma (for one year). That can be a powerful motivator. A young guy playing against Russ will either be starstruck or want to make a name for himself. This is going to be a game where either Young is too juiced and he has a horrible game, or he will be just the right amount of amped and do the things that made him a legend in 2017-18 in college. For the price, it’s worth finding out.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Jackson ($5,700): Jackson had a nice game against the Bulls the first time around, but I’m paying closer attention to his three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. This is another really good matchup for Jackson in the beaten up and beleaguered Bulls.

Wayne Ellington ($4,400): Wade’s monster on Sunday had most on him instead of Ellington on Tuesday. Ellington responded with 37.75 DraftKings points against the Hawks. This is going to be an up and down game with the Pelicans. While Wade will probably have a solid game, Ellington is $700 cheaper and sees more minutes. I’ll take Ellington as a strong value play tonight.

Ryan Arcidiacono ($4,400): The darling of the 2016 NCAA tournament, Arcidiacono is finally making a consistent impact in the pros. Arcidiacono has 81.75 DraftKings points over his last two games against solid teams in Milwaukee and San Antonio. His emergence at the point has helped the rest of the Bulls stabilize as well. He could be in for another strong game tonight, and is just as strong of a bargain play as Ellington, if not more. Just beware the chalk.

Elie Okobo ($3,000): Okobo has won the Suns’ version of Survivor: NBA point guard. Canaan and Shaq Harrison are gone. It’s just Booker and 30 year NBA veteran Jamal Crawford. Okobo took advantage of this with 33.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday. Choose your stud and play Okobo. That’s going to be the most common strategy, but I don’t know how you avoid it and still cash.

My pick: Arcidiacono(PG), Okobo(G); Jackson(PG), Ellington(G), Arcidiacono(UTIL)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 23: Zach LaVine #8 of the Chicago Bulls dunks against the Miami Heat at the United Center on November 23, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Heat defeated the Bulls 103-96. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,700): If Paul is out again, don’t get cute. Play Harden. Beard has 233.75 DraftKings points in just three games with Paul out. He’s going to destroy the Spurs again if Paul is out. If Paul is in, switch to option B or C.

Zach LaVine ($8,400): Saying that LaVine is the only viable option on the Bulls right now is a bit disrespectful. The team as a whole has played pretty well lately, losing by just three in Milwaukee and one at home to the Spurs. LaVine is a big reason for that. He has five straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points and put up 41.25 in the first meeting with the Pistons. We pretty much know what to expect here.

Devin Booker ($8,300): The Suns put the Twitterverse on their ear three separate times on Wednesday. First came the release of Isaiah Canaan. Next game the listing of Warren as questionable for no apparent reason. Then came Booker listed as doubtful an hour before tipoff only to start anyway. We just saw Orlando give up a ton of threes to Lillard on Wednesday. If Booker’s shot is falling, he could torched the Magic from deep as well.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Richardson ($7,700): Tuesday was more indicative of what we are going to see while Dragic and Johnson are out. Wade had a huge game Sunday and a solid game Tuesday. Expect that solid game to be the norm, which means a bulk of the scoring vacated by Johnson is going to be picked up by JRich. Richardson racked up 46.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday. He should be a strong mid range play again.

Jeremy Lamb ($6,000): I don’t usually go out of my way to play guards against Utah, but with Lamb we could make an exception. Lamb has five straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points and 12 straight games over 25. That is the kind of floor we want in cash games. Lamb doesn’t possess a lot of upside against Utah, but he could very well provide value at low ownership. That winning lineup always has that one player that is barely owned.

Justin Holiday ($5,400): Yes, Justin is a poor man’s Jrue. He plays big minutes, always has good numbers, and sometimes has great numbers. I didn’t like his matchup against the Bucks, and Holiday still came up with very close to 5x vlaue. This is a good matchup against the Pistons, so Holiday should be back in the mid 30s at least here.

Dark Horses:

J.J. Barea ($5,300): I’m not a huge fan of trying to decipher the Dallas guard situation. Dennis Smith has had some good games lately. Doncic has played all over the court. Matthews is back. So why Barea? Well, in all that uncertainty, Barea has three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points, and has topped 38 in the last two. Now the bad news: Barea has only played more than 26 minutes once in the last 12 games. His points per minute totals are still through the roof.

Tim Frazier ($4,200): Frazier was a late add to the starting lineup on Wednesday and proceeded to score more points against Washington than he did the entire month of November! That performance should afford Frazier some more run. If the Pelicans start Frazier again, he is a must play at this price.

Kevin Huerter ($3,500): The Hawks have shown a willingness to let the rookie play some pretty good minutes, but he doesn’t always do a lot with them. Still, there are some really chalky value plays tonight. Huerter has at least 5x value three times in the last five games, and will go virtually unnoticed on this slate.

My pick: Frazier(SG); Holiday(SG)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($8,500): Truth be told, I’m not wild about any of the high priced options at SF tonight. LeBron is a solid play against Dallas, but didn’t hit 5x value the first time and is in the second night of a back to back. George could destroy Atlanta, but a blowout also means that he may only play 30 minutes or less. That leaves Simmons, who actually has a really good matchup here. Simmons is a constant triple double threat, so that gives him a high floor, but as option number four of the big three, his upside is capped.

Nikola Mirotic ($7,300): His long range shooting is lethal and is the perfect compliment to Davis wrecking the inside. The price is getting a little high for me, but you really can’t understate Mirotic’s ceiling when he’s on. If his shot is falling, Mirotic is capable of 7x value, even at this price.

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($6,200): Warren continues to score a ton of points for a team that has no other scorer beside Booker. Orlando is decent defending on the wing, but decent hasn’t stopped Warren yet. Only Detroit and the Clippers have held Warren under 30 DraftKings points in the last dozen games.

Kyle Kuzma ($5,600): Kuzma has been really good since joining LeBron and Ingram in the starting lineup. He racked up 33.5 DraftKings points on Dallas the first time around with Ingram out. Judging by what we have seen the last few games, Kuzma could do even better playing alongside Ingram.

Markieff Morris ($5,500): Morris has been on a tear lately, putting up at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games. With perpetual pain in the ass Dwight Howard so much of a pain this year that he actually has to have surgery to remove that pain in his ass, Morris will continue to receive good run. With Covington and Saric gone, Philly has a bit of a hole in the frontcourt that Chandler can’t fill by himself. This could be another big place for Morris so long as Washington keeps feeding him minutes.

Dark Horses:

Joe Ingles ($5,400): Ingles is nothing flashy, but he does put up consistently strong numbers. He has at least 5x value in five straight games, and has topped 7x value twice in that span. As long as Ingles is in this price range, he can put up numbers near the 7x range and almost always hits value.

Kelly Oubre ($4,600): Oubre is a much needed scorer for this team, but he really doesn’t do much else. That is going to limit his upside, but this price still seems cheap for a guy who can put up points like Oubre can. Oubre has at least 7x value four times in his last seven games. The bad news is he has been under 2.5x twice in that same span.

Josh Jackson ($3,800): The Suns rotation is getting smaller by the day so Jackson’s minutes are gradually increasing. He has responded well so far with 50.5 DraftKings points over the last two games combined. This is not a great matchup in Orlando, but Jackson should still see a decent amount of minutes and is the best pure scorer on the second unit. There is decent potential here.

My pick: Morris(SF); Morris(SF)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans slaps hands with Julius Randle #30 after scoring his 10,000 career point in the second quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,400): Do we even care who the opponent is right now? Davis is about the only guy that can make five digit price tags feel cheap. In 18 games this year, Davis has at least 50 DraftKings points in 16 of them. Play him with confidence.

Blake Griffin ($9,600): Blake decimated the Bulls front in the first meeting torching them for 61.5 DraftKings points in just 34 minutes. I still don’t think Parker can really block Blake, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he touched 50 again, but I don’t see as big of a game as the first meeting. Griffin hasn’t had more than 45 DraftKings points in nine days, so he’s due.

Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($6,900): Miami’s front isn’t quite what it was last year, yet most players get a price break when facing them. We can use that to our advantage. Now, Davis is not going to hit 7x value for his enormous price, but Randle is always a threat to put up a monster game. His floor is high 20’s, which is a bit concerning, but Randle has cracked 60 DraftKings points twice in the last six games. The upside is there.

Jabari Parker ($6,700): Parker has excelled starting at the four for the Bulls, but I do have questions about how he’s going to do against Blake. Still, Parker has at least 40 DraftKings points in each of the last five games facing the likes of Giannis, Aldrige (part time), Taj Gibson, James Johnson, and a terrible Phoenix front. He has produced against all of them, good and bad. This is a solid price for Parker if he can keep that streak up.

Jayson Tatum ($6,500): This is the Tatum that we started to get used to during the 2018 playoffs. Tatum has 75.75 DraftKings points over the last two games, and gets a pretty weak Cleveland front that still has no Love. The offensive game is coming back for Tatum, which means he could exceed value at this price on a regular basis.

Dark Horses:

Jaren Jackson ($5,800): Jackson was a disaster on National Jaren Jackson Chalk Night, racking up two fouls in less than a minute. The foul trouble haunted him the rest of the game, and Jackson was a total bust in just 19 minutes. That could be a good thing. The Grizz get the poor front of the Nets tonight, and DFS players are like elephants. We never forget. Count on many people swearing off Jackson after that debacle. This could be our cue to pounce against a terrible Brooklyn front. If Jackson can’t stay out of foul trouble here, I’ll swear him off with you.

Jerami Grant ($4,500): Grant is quietly putting up strong bench numbers for the Thunder. Of course, bench is misleading. Grant has played at least 28 minutes in nine of the last 12 games and has at least 5x value in eight of those. Grant also seems to be trending upward now with two games over 35 DraftKings points twice in the last four games. There is a great chance of him doing it again against Atlanta.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Wilson Chandler ($3,800): They are the same price. They play the same position. The only way you can tell the two apart right now is that Chandler starts and MKG does not. Due to that, Chandler has the higher upside, but MKG is a points per minute monster. If the Hornets start increasing his minutes, the 6x value that he has made a habit of lately is going to quickly turn into 7x and 8x. Chandler is the safer pick, but the upside on MKG is better despite the limited minutes.

My pick: Davis(PF), Randle(F); Griffin(PF), Jackson(F)

DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bet:

Joel Embiid ($10,900): Only Cleveland, Utah, and Memphis – all pretty strong fronts – have kept Embiid under 55 DraftKings points this month. Washington isn’t going to do that. Embiid is about as sure as you can get right now, and I can make a strong case for playing him over Davis. Davis has higher upside, but Embiid is more of a sure thing. Hell, with the value on this slate we can play them both. I’ll show you how.

Andre Drummond ($9,400): This should be a smash spot for Drummond, but I’m not so sure. The Knicks held him to just six points in 30 minutes last game. Drummond is just 1-12 from the free throw line over the last two games. His shot isn’t really falling, and Drummond only picked up 29 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Bulls while Blake was putting them through the ringer. I have a feeling this is a Blake night again, and Drummond could struggle accordingly.

Marc Gasol ($9,100): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS!! Well, maybe. Gasol is listed as questionable, but if he plays, play him.

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Honorable Mention:

Nikola Vucevic ($8,900): I believe that Vucevic means shredder of poor interior defenses in his native Montenegran language. Phoenix’s is one of the worst. Ayton will get better, but right now, Vucevic has at least 5x value in three straight and eight of the last ten. This big price hike makes it harder, but I think he’s in for a big one against Phoenix.

Clint Capela ($7,800): The Spurs are in the top eight of fantasy points allowed to centers this year, and Capela still took them for 39.5 DraftKings points in that one. I don’t expect a huge game from Capela here, but he is almost a lock for 5x value and should come at pretty low ownership.

DeAndre Jordan ($6,900): The Lakers have been lit up by most centers this year, but curiously, not by Jordan in the first meeting. Of course, Jordan only played 30 minutes in that game. Curiously, Dallas has held Jordan under 30 minutes in four of the last ten games despite him not being in foul trouble. The Mavs like to run small this year it seems, which makes the signing of Jordan that much more peculiar. If they give Jordan run, he could beat up on the Lakers, but that’s a sizeable risk right now.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($5,500): Allen has put up back to back double doubles against decent teams, here, but I like this pick a whole lot more if Gasol sits. We should have news on this before lock, but if we don’t make sure you have a backup plan and can switch on a moment’s notice. I likely wont play Allen with Gasol out there.

Bam Adebayo ($4,300): We have seen this before. Bouts of inconsistency/apathy that let us know for sure that Whiteside is a notch or two below elite. Whiteside continues to struggle, so Bam continues to vulture some minutes. He racked up 21 DraftKings points in just 14 minutes last game. I don’t like the fluctuation of minutes, but Bam produces when he is in there.

Richaun Holmes ($3,600): Holmes has been a force on the inside for the Suns. It’s easy to forget that he is only 24 years old. Now, the Suns aren’t giving him much run yet for whatever reason, but Holmes has at least 20 DraftKings points in five straight games despite playing between 15 and 18 minutes in all of them. Come on Phoenix. Turn him loose. I’ll split my winnings with you.

My pick: Embiid(C), Holmes(UTIL); Gasol(C)

Last but not least – our friends at FantasyDraft are sponsoring a Picks and Pivots Free Roll tonight with three $25 Pick and Roll tickets for Saturday’s slate on the line. The response to this was overwhelming yesterday and I am so pumped to be able to offer this to our readers due to the generosity of the folks at FantasyDraft.

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