ESPN College Pick Em Picks Week 14 2018: All in on Clemson

Welcome to the last week of ESPN College Pick Em! It was a great ride this season. My picks have been down the last two weeks because I went a little crazy trying to play catch up. I sit in 22nd place, and mathematically eliminated now, so no need to go crazy this week.

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It was an average week all around. Gamebreaker_Boz led the group with a 48 point week to crack the top 20 for the first time since week 3.

mdaallen still leads the group with 525 points. Brian Prete lost some ground last week, but still sits in second with 519 points. Kev Shep! is in third just one point back of Brian. pitpenguins66 is just one back of that and keepingthelittlehumansalive is just one back of that to round out the top five.

There is a bit of a drop to earleyca in sixth at 511 points. Jay_da_gr8_1 is the last in the 500’s at 507 points. Those are the ones with the best chance to win the group.

BKNoleGirl sits in 8th with 498 points. Brandon8736 is four back of her. Rounding out the top ten is Protege21242 at 491 points. mnsooners is just one point out of the top ten and Ibockenek is just one behind him. 2Pretty4Orange is just one point behind that! The top ten could shake up this week!

Only mdaallen’s upsets, Gamebreaker_boz, and Rex-Revelation had Ohio State beating Michigan. You have to love BKNoleGirl’s commitment to her team. And uscbill. They are the only one besides the upset picks to pick the Seminoles and Trojans respectively. Everyone but the upset bracket also had Bama.

These picks will be for the confidence version of the game, where you assign a point value from 1-10 based on how confident you are in each pick. I will publish mine here each week. If I make a change, I will just amend the original article.

This looks like another tough week. How will the group do this time around?

(1) Fresno State over Boise State:

What changed since Fresno’s first loss on the Smurf Turf? Nothing. However, it’s hard to beat a good football team twice in one season. Think back to CCG rematches and bowl games featuring a game we saw in the regular season. Who won the rematch? Now, I only want you to think of the “good” teams. The team that won the first game is 20-13 in the rematch. However, if the team that won the first game also wins the second, the margin of victory is larger in 90% of those games. So the question is whether Boise will win by more than a touchdown. I say no.

(2) Northwestern over Ohio State:

With how charged this team was against Michigan, it’s perfect acceptable to expect a letdown, especially against a team like Northwestern. However, when you look at Ohio State’s loss (Purdue) and near losses (Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State), what stands out? Right. The offense bogged down. Northwestern has one of the best defenses in the conference, and their offense isn’t so bad either. If Ohio State shows up flat, they are in a world of trouble, and may not even notice until it’s too late.

(3) Middle Tennessee State over UAB:

This is going to be part of the 10% that didn’t increase the margin of victory in the rematch because the Blue Raiders wiped the field with UAB last week. I don’t see another blowout, but I also don’t see how UAB improves enough to avenge a 24 point loss in the same stadium exactly one week later.

(4) Marshall over Virginia Tech:

This is another case where a team coming off an emotional win could be in for a letdown. This is still a rivalry game, mind you. And the Hokies need a win to go bowling. Nothing would make Marshall more happy that spoiling that. The only thing better than beating a rival on their own field is to knock them out of bowl eligibility by doing so. Marshall has the chance to do that for the first time. I expect them to take full advantage.

(5) Memphis over Central Florida:

This was going to be a test for UCF anyway, and regardless of if they had Milton or not, I was taking Memphis. Why? UCF’s run defense has been a sore spot all year. Memphis has not just one really good running back in Darrell Henderson, they have two more than can pound away at you while he rests. Take away Milton and this offense isn’t nearly as explosive anyway. Memphis will slow this game down and run at will.

(6) California over Stanford:

This Cal defense is better than they have been given credit for, and I don’t have a lot of faith in the Stanford offense. This is going to be a crazy game – it always is – but Cal finally has the tools to keep up on both sides of the ball.

(7) Oklahoma over Texas:

if the Red River Shootout hadn’t ended the way it did, I would take Texas. However, Murray and the offense figured something out in the last 20 minutes of that game. Oklahoma’s defense is a mess, but they have been coming up with turnovers lately, something they didn’t do much of early in the season. This is going to be a close game and is going to come down to who makes the biggest mistake. Right now, I trust the Oklahoma defense more to capitalize on it.

(8) Alabama over Georgia:

This is the thing no one is talking about. This Alabama team is one of the best college football teams ever assembled. I’m not talking about in terms of total talent. I’m talking about their dominance on both sides of the ball and lack of a discernible weakness. They play so well as a team. Alabama’s smallest win of the season is 22 points. Georgia may stay within that, but I could see Bama beating them by more than that too.

(9) Appalachian State over Louisiana:

The real Sun Belt Championship was last week when Appalachian beat Troy. This is going to get ugly!

(10) Clemson over Pitt:

But not as ugly as this. Remember what Pitt looked like against Penn State? Yeah, this is going to be worse than that facing this Clemson defense. It has been a nice year for Pitt, but it wont feel like it when this one gets over.

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