Should the 2018 SEC Championship Game be seen as the de facto national championship game? ESPN football analyst Matt Stinchcomb certainly sees it that way.
In what will be the most exciting conference championship game this weekend, the 2018 SEC Championship will be between the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) and the No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (11-1). The winner of this game will undoubtedly make the College Football Playoff. Perhaps there is a way that No. 1 Alabama still gets in despite possibly being upset by underdog Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday evening?
Helping us make sense of all things SEC Championship, as well as the College Football Playoff picture rapidly coming together is ESPN college football analyst Matt Stinchcomb. Stinchcomb calls games on the SEC Network, was a two-time All-American at tackle for Georgia in the late 1990s and is a part of the newest College Football Hall of Fame induction class. He spoke with FanSided on behalf of Allstate ahead of the title bout between Alabama and Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Stinchcomb has been an instrumental part of the Allstate AFCA Good Works Team after having been selected to this high-character, all-star squad during his undergraduate days in Athens. He and other SEC legends, including Tim Tebow, helped perform a special service project at the C.T. Martin Natatorium and Recreation Center in Atlanta on Thursday as a part of Park Pride Atlanta.
“It’s something we’ve been doing in partnership with Allstate and again this year with Park Pride Atlanta for the better part of a decade now,” said Stinchcomb. “I know that all the former players, the guys that were on the national Good Works Team when they were in college look forward to this day with a chance to give back, not only to the Atlanta community that has meant so much, not only to the SEC, but to college football in general.”
For the second straight year, Stinchcomb’s alma mater Georgia will be playing for a conference championship and the right to represent the SEC in the College Football Playoff. However, this time Georgia will be up against it versus arguably the best team in the nation in Alabama.
“We’ll find out Saturday where they have their heads and whether or not they are mentally prepared to take on the challenge. I would be surprised if they were not. I think the wake-up call was given in Baton Rouge and since then, you’ve seen a team that has played pretty well.”
For Georgia to be able to pull off the upset, the Dawgs will need to play its best game of the season. Stinchcomb has pointed out that Georgia hasn’t played a complete game thus far in 2018, but has certainly been trending in the right direction since falling to the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge in early October.
“We’ll find out Saturday where they have their heads and whether or not they are mentally prepared to take on the challenge,” said Stinchcomb on Georgia’s potential state of mind heading into the Dawgs’ biggest game of the season. “I would be surprised if they were not. I think the wake-up call was given in Baton Rouge and since then, you’ve seen a team that has played pretty well.”
Keep in mind that these two SEC powers met not even a year ago in the same building. Only then, they were playing for a national championship, where Alabama came out on top in overtime, 26-23 to stun Georgia. The key to Alabama’s come-from-behind victory over Georgia was Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban’s insertion of true freshman quarterback Tua Tagovailoa into the offense in favor of a struggling Jalen Hurts.
Tagovailoa helped spark a comeback for the Crimson Tide, and hasn’t lost a game in his first season as a full-time starter in 2018. He is the front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy, but has dealt with leg injuries throughout the home stretch of the regular season.
When asked if he is concerned about Tagovailoa’s potentially limited mobility, Stinchcomb replied “He doesn’t seem overly limited. I don’t know if he’s quite as explosive as a runner as he was before, but I think we might be parsing it a bit closely at this point. He’s quite the runner, but beyond that, the explosive plays in the passing game gives you pause.”
The Alabama offense has caught fire with Tagovailoa under center this fall. Alabama has beaten all 12 of its regular season opponents by 20 points. With his precise, southpaw throwing motion, Alabama has a ridiculous 70 explosive plays in the passing game measuring of at least 20 yards or more.
But can the inconsistent Georgia pass rush do enough to limit his effectiveness? Stinchcomb feels that “Georgia is going to have to commit to getting to Tagovailoa. And if they don’t sack him, be able to hurry some of his passes and get some shots on him to see if they can’t rattle him.” If the Dawgs are unable to do this, Tagovailoa will certainly carve up the Georgia defense.
Overall, it has been the play of Tagovailoa that us wondering if this is the best Alabama team Saban has coached to date and how this group would stack up with some of the best single-season teams in college football history. Truth be told, we are seeing a completely different brand of college football when compared to yesteryear thanks to an offensive explosion nationwide.
“That’s hard to say, mainly because I think the game has changed so much,” said Stinchcomb. “If you look at the way it is played now, and even the way the game is structured, it’s an offensively oriented football game. Before, you could actually win championships with defense. Now, it’s just a matter of how much defense you have to play and play well to win championships.”
While Saban’s 2009 team went undefeated en route to an national title over Mack Brown’s Texas Longhorns, Stinchcomb spoke fondly of how dominant the 2011 Alabama team was on the defensive side of the ball. “I don’t know if it is the best team under Nick Saban. It may very well be. It certainly looks like the very best Alabama offense, but I think this defense might be as well.”
“He doesn’t seem overly limited. I don’t know if he’s quite as explosive as a runner as he was before, but…the explosive plays in the passing game gives you pause.”
A big key for the always dominant Alabama defense this year is defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. When asked if he is going to be the undeniable difference maker in this game, Stinchcomb would respond with “he is, in my mind, one of the best defensive players you will see in all of college football this season. So if Georgia is running the football inside, or with success in the game, I’m willing to bet it’s most likely going to be perimeter runs.”
“He is a player capable of wrecking shop. I don’t care if it is a maximum protection scenario or on an early-down, play-action pass, we’ve seen him get pressure on quarterbacks, where there is two, even three potential pass protectors assigned to him.”
Not having an offensive line that is at full strength might be a problem for the Georgia ground game, especially if offensive coordinator Jim Chaney can’t design well-orchestrated runs up the middle by his tailback tandem of Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift.
While the Dawgs could run outside zone, as well as having the most efficient passer in college football in sophomore Jake Fromm spreading the ball across the field, Georgia might have its best advantage in this ball game on special teams, especially in the kicking game.
We know of the cult-like following that bespectacled placekicker Rodrigo Blankenship has garnered in his last few years playing for the Dawgs. His 50-yarder at the end of the half in the Rose Bowl versus the Oklahoma Sooners helped catapult Georgia to its first national title berth since 1982 just last season.
While Blankenship has a considerably better shot at making routine 50-yard field goals than the Crimson Tide special teams, Stinchcomb sees Georgia’s kicking advantage on a much deeper and more interesting level.
“I think it is more indirect than I think it is direct because of the fact that Rodrigo is capable of hitting long-range field goals with considerable accuracy and consistency. I think that impacts your play calling in plus territory as an offensive coordinator, as opposed to saying that I might have to pick up another first down right here. Maybe go ahead and take a shot, knowing that you’ve got three points on the board?”
Stinchcomb would end his praise of the Georgia kicking game and the advantages it gives the offense with this. “I think that changes how aggressive you can be once you cross mid-field if you’re Georgia’s offensive coordinator and offense because there’s a good chance that you are going to come away with points on that offensive possession.”
Overall, it seemed like Stinchcomb feels this game will go down to the wire. Though he didn’t give a final score prediction, Stinchcomb gave a bold answer about how he thinks this game will play out.
“This is as you mentioned not to dissimilar to 2012, a de facto national championship game. Take nothing away from Clemson, but these are the top two teams in the country right now and you’re going to be able to see them before the College Football Playoff even begins.”
“This is as you mentioned not to dissimilar to 2012, a de facto national championship game. Take nothing away from Clemson, but these are the top two teams in the country right now and you’re going to be able to see them before the College Football Playoff even begins.”
We all remember how the 2012 SEC Championship Game shook out. Georgia was driving with a chance to win the ball game over Alabama before quarterback Aaron Murray’s pass was tipped in the red zone as time expired. Alabama steamrolled the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the national title a few weeks later. The 2012 SEC Championship Game was essentially the national title.
While No. 2 Clemson is undefeated heading into its ACC Championship Game versus a five-loss Pittsburgh Panthers team, maybe Stinchcomb does have a point that Alabama and Georgia are the two best teams in college football right now.
They played for a national title year ago and have a combined four losses in the last two seasons. Clemson is no doubt going to make its fourth trip to the College Football Playoff once it cake walks past a lackluster Pittsburgh team on Saturday. However, the ACC has been largely horrible this season. Traditional ACC powers like Florida State, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech have all struggled this fall.
Though a 13-0 ACC Championship Clemson team absolutely would have earned the right to a top-two seed entering the national semifinals, Stinchcomb has his issues with Notre Dame not playing in a conference championship, despite being 12-0 as a national independent.
“I think this,” Stinchcomb commented. “That if there is a 13th data point for some teams, then figure out a way to get a 13th data point for the other teams. I’ve long since been of the position that if Notre Dame wants to participate, that Notre Dame should find a way to be a part of a conference that plays for a conference championship.”
In a way, it sort of feels as if Notre Dame has a first-round bye en route to its first-ever College Football Playoff berth. Clemson should breeze past Pittsburgh. However, top-six teams like Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and the Ohio State Buckeyes of the Big Ten will have to test their mettle in conference championship rock fights to get in.
Stinchcomb would add that the Big 12 Championship Game between Oklahoma and Texas in Arlington would be like a double jeopardy scenario that could keep a strong Big 12 team in No. 5 Oklahoma out if they were to lose to the Longhorns on Saturday.
Ultimately what will happen this weekend is that Notre Dame will get in as a national independent, Clemson will get in as a likely ACC Champion and the winner of Alabama versus Georgia gets in. We all know that.
Georgia probably doesn’t get in as a two-loss non-conference champion should it fall to Alabama. Conversely, Alabama is still going to get in as a No. 3 or No. 4 team even with an unlikely loss to Georgia, as the Crimson Tide have been seen as the best team in the nation for the entire regular season. That last spot, should Alabama beat Georgia, would come down to either Oklahoma and Ohio State, with the Sooners having the slight leg up on the No. 6 Buckeyes entering the final rankings.
With Georgia already having the toughest battle this weekend of any team in consideration to get in, one has to wonder if it’s all that fair should the Dawgs have to face the Crimson Tide again in the Playoff after having beaten them to get there initially. Stinchcomb sees fair as a relative term.
“I’ve long since been of the position that if Notre Dame wants to participate, that Notre Dame should find a way to be a part of a conference that plays for a conference championship.”
“I think it would be unfair to exclude an Alabama football team that has long since been thought for the entirety of the season in which it went undefeated in a dominant fashion to not be afforded a chance to contend for a national title because they had to play a 13th game versus the No. 4 team in the country on a neutral site…As far as fairness from a Georgia perspective, if Georgia didn’t want to do that, they should have beaten LSU, but they didn’t.”
Stinchcomb has a point. It doesn’t matter if it is fair or not. It’s all about reality. If Alabama is going to repeat as national champions, they will have to beat Georgia presumably once and probably that one time coming on Saturday.
Georgia however, would have to come to the harsh realization that it may have to beat Alabama twice to win its first national title since 1980. That is unless one of the other four teams in contention could knock off an at-large Alabama team in the national semifinal.
In that case, a hypothetical repeat SEC Champion Georgia team should feel pretty good about its situation, as it had beaten Alabama for the first time in a decade on the gridiron. Get ready for the best game of the 2018 college football season so far, as the SEC will be decided in The Empire State of the South.
No. 1 Alabama (12-0) will face No. 4 Georgia in the 2018 SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 1 at 4:00 p.m. ET. CBS will have the national telecast of this conference championship game.