NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks: November 30th, 2018
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks articles!
It’s finally the weekend and there’s no better way to welcome it in than with a massive 11-game NBA slate with the CPR crew and some Daily Fantasy Basketball.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
11/30/18 NBA Main Slate Outlook:
The beauty of an 11-game slate and stacks is the fact that it can really help condense your player pool. So many players get caught up in having exposure to as many games as possible when in fact narrowing the slate down to 4-5 games is often times a way to come out ahead.
Of the 11 games on the docket tonight, 7 of them have a spread of 3.5 or tighter, leading to what could be some extremely competitive basketball. There’s both competitive playoff-esque matchups and matchups between terrible teams that could lead to loads of fantasy points, making for a very fun slate.
We’ve got yet another slate in which Chris Paul finds himself questionable, but given the fact that the Spurs are currently listed as the 1.5-point favorite, my gut is telling me he sits, leading us into our primary game stack for tonight:
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Primary Game Stack: Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs (SAS -1.5)
Rockets Team Ranks:
Pace: 29th (99.2 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 9th (108.1 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 26th (109.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The news to watch on the slate is obviously going to be whether or not Chris Paul suits up. I personally think that he will miss this game for a couple of reasons. Those being the fact that the Spurs are the 1.5-point favorites and the fact that this is the first leg of a back-to-back for the Rockets, so it would make more sense if he played tomorrow.
If he’s to miss another game, James Harden ($11.7k FD / $11.7k DK) becomes a plug-and-play for obvious reasons. Not only does Harden hold a jaw-dropping 44.5% usage rate with Paul off of the court, he also averages 1.89 fantasy points per minute, in large part due to his recent play. Over his last 3 games, he’s averaged 39.7 points, 14.3 assists, 7.7 rebounds and 3.3 steals in 42.8 minutes per game. Lock and load.
Aside from Harden, the rest of the Rockets do see an uptick in production with both Chris Paul and Gerald Green off of the court. Eric Gordon ($5.9k FD / $5.8k DK) has been red-hot from the field over his last 3 games, averaging 27.0 points in 38.7 minutes per game after sliding into the starting SG spot. He remains too cheap across the industry and makes for a phenomenal cash play should Paul sit.
Clint Capela ($8.7k FD / $7.8k DK) has seen his price rise on FanDuel but it’s remained stagnant on DraftKings. With Paul and Green off of the court, Capela sees a 1.6% boost in usage and averages 1.21 fantasy points per minute. He’s been in stellar form as of late, topping 47 FanDuel points in 4 of his last 6 with 3 of those games going for over 56 FanDuel points. He’s too cheap on DraftKings.
Looking towards some value, James Ennis ($4.0k FD / $3.8k DK) has seen 30+ minutes in 4 of his last 5 games and has topped 5x value in his last two outings. Last game specifically, he posted 18 points on 13 shots, seeing a nice uptick in usage. He’s a great play across both sites assuming Green misses again.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Primary Game Stack: Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs (SAS -1.5)
Spurs Team Ranks:
Pace: 26th (100.4 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: T10th (107.6 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T23rd (108.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Spurs are never a sexy team to stack or roster, but that’s changed a bit this season with their new-look roster.
DeMar DeRozan ($8.3k FD / $8.1k DK) is sitting at one of his lowest price points in the last few weeks after struggling with a bit of inconsistency as of late. This is, however, a prime buy-low spot. He’s topped 40 FanDuel points in 3 of his last 5 outings against the Rockets and we all know that the combination of Harden and Gordon defensively is nothing to fear. The tight spread also shows he could get as much run as possible tonight, making him one of my favorite guard plays on the slate.
Speaking of inconsistency, LaMarcus Aldridge ($8.0k FD / $7.9k DK) has also been struggling in that aspect recently. He’s posted over 40 FanDuel points in 3 of his last 5 games, but has failed to top 25 in the other two. A matchup with Clint Capela seems daunting, but the fact that he falls victim to early foul trouble a decent amount of the time actually makes this a rather enticing matchup. He’s more of a GPP play, but remains somewhat underpriced on both sites for his potential ceiling.
Aside from the two all-stars, the Spurs team is ripe with boom-or-bust value options. Jakob Poeltl ($3.8k FD / $3.4k DK) has had two consecutive productive outings, averaging 22.7 FanDuel points per game over that stretch in only 18.5 minutes per game. The minutes are far from secure, but the production is not. He’s a fine punt on Fanduel.
The point guard rotation of Bryn Forbes (3.7k FD / $3.9k DK), Derrick White ($3.9k FD / $3.4k DK) and Patty Mills ($3.7k FD / $3.7k DK) has been rather unpredictable, but they’re all a good bet to see 20-25 minutes per game. White returned to the starting lineup last game but failed to impress as he posted only 12.4 FanDuel points. He’s a fade in my book as the other two make better plays with my favorite being Forbes. He’s seen 20+ minutes in every single game this season and has topped 20 FanDuel points in 3 of his last 6. While that doesn’t sound impressive, the fact that he’s below $4k on both sites makes it more valuable.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Game Stack: Orlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns (PHX -1)
Magic Team Ranks:
Pace: 23rd (101.7 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 23rd (104.3 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 19th (107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)
Okay, I’ll be honest, I had a really hard time not putting this game as my primary game stack. If the Rockets weren’t so depleted, it would have been. Aside from Harden, there may not be a hotter player in the NBA right now than Nikola Vucevic ($9.5k FD / $8.9k DK). Over his last 3 games, he’s averaged 27 points, 11.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.0 steals in 32.4 minutes per game. The addition of DeAndre Ayton helps the interior offense of the Suns, but certainly not their defense, as they allow the 2nd most FDP per game to opposing centers (63.39). He’s a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but is a viable play in all formats tonight.
The status of Aaron Gordon ($7.6k FD / $7.0k DK) will determine a lot of the value on the Magic as he missed the last game with back spasms. If he’s to PLAY, he makes for a fine GPP play in an up-tempo game at a reduced price. If he SITS, Jonathan Isaac ($4.9k FD / $4.4k DK) will likely be the biggest beneficiary. He’s seen 30 minutes in back to back outings, averaging 15.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1 assists per game. Fellow name-twin Jonathan Simmons ($4.0k FD / $3.6k DK) has also seen 23+ minutes in his last 3 games but has only eclipsed 20 fantasy points once. His per-game production has been way down but he could still be a viable punt in such a juicy matchup should Gordon sit.
Evan Fournier ($5.8k FD / $5.8k DK) remains far too cheap and comes in as one of my favorite cash game plays tonight. He was able to snap out of his mini-slump last game, posting a 17-3-4 stat line with 2 blocks in 35 minutes against a stout Blazers defense. This matchup is much more enticing and if he’s able to see the same amount of minutes, he should absolutely smash with his 26.8% usage rate (second on team by 0.1%).
Fellow SG Terrence Ross ($5.0k FD / $4.9k DK) also finds himself criminally under-priced as he’s topped 27 FanDuel points in 3 consecutive outings. His minutes have been on the rise (now seeing in the mid-high 20s) as he’s continued to pace the second unit and he comes in as a rock solid value play.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Game Stack: Orlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns (PHX -1)
Suns Team Ranks:
Pace: T21st (101.9 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 28th (101.6 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 30th (111.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)
Devin Booker ($8.2k FD / $8.3k DK) is just one of those guys that you love to roster in cash. He’s unbelievably consistent, as he’s topped 37 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 7 games, and also provides a sky-high ceiling. He’s slid over to PG more this season, averaging an impressive 7 assists per game to go along with his 24.5 points per game. Orlando has nobody defensively that can challenge him, making him a rock solid play in all formats.
The addition of DeAndre Ayton ($7.2k FD / $7.2k DK) has probably been a major factor in taking attention away from Booker, but Ayton himself has been super impressive. He’s averaging 16.4 points and 10.4 rebounds per game on the season and it feels like he’s priced extremely reasonably tonight. A matchup with Nikola Vucevic and Mo Bamba isn’t easy by any means, but in a competitive game, he should be a shoe-in for a double double.
TJ Warren ($6.3k FD / $6.2k DK) is currently listed as questionable, which could have a huge impact on the Suns offensively. If he plays, he makes for a fantastic mid-tier option, but if he misses, a heap of value will open up and both Booker and Ayton would receive a bump. Trevor Ariza ($5.0k FD / $5.2k DK) seems like he would get the biggest boost at a dirt cheap price.
He’s seen at least 26 minutes in 5 of his last 6 games while topping 40 minutes in 2 of those. His production has been all over the place, but he’s still seeing around 10 shots per game and contributing across the stat line. He’s a great value play as is, but would become a borderline must if Warren sits.
Mikal Bridges ($3.7k FD / $3.5k DK) would be another beneficiary of a TJ Warren absence. He’s seen 23+ minutes in 4 of his last 6 outings but only saw 15 minutes last outing. With Trevor Ariza back and fully engulfed in the rotation, Bridges would only fall on the punt radar if Warren is out, otherwise you can safely avoid.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Top GPP Team Stack: Memphis Grizzlies (@ BKN)
Grizzlies Team Ranks:
Pace: 30th (98.0 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 22nd (104.5 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 5th (103.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Grizzlies are good and it’s been the dynamic duo of Marc Gasol ($9.8k FD / $9.1k DK) and Mike Conley ($8.9k FD / $8.3k DK) leading the charge.
Both are priced at a season-high cost and Marc Gasol is currently listed as a game time decision. So, you can quickly see why this team should be reserved for GPPs tonight. Should Gasol suit up, I see no way he doesn’t absolutely shred the Nets. They allow the most fantasy points per game (66.38) in the league to opposing centers and Gasol has been on another level lately. He’s averaged 24 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.5 blocks and 1.5 steals over 37.3 minutes per game over his last 6 games. I think he WILL play, as he was a full participant in Thursday’s practice, making him my favorite GPP play on the slate.
Conley has been just as effective as of late. Over his last 5 games, he’s averaged 24 points, 8.8 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 34.6 minutes per game. The Nets are better against PGs than they are against Cs, but the tight spread and recent form has me looking Conley’s way as a low-owned GPP gem tonight.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6.9k FD / $5.8k DK) rounds out the GPP trio for the Grizzlies as he’s been super impressive in his debut season. His minutes are still rather volatile as he only saw 18 last game and 12 a few games ago, but his per-minute production in games he sees the court is insane. He’s recorded 11 blocks over his last 3 games and has topped 35 FanDuel points in 3 of his last 5. His price on FanDuel is a bit high, but in such an exploitable matchup, I’d be all over him on DraftKings if I were you and I expect him to have relatively low ownership.
Daily Fantasy Basketball – Top Value Stack: Miami Heat (vs NOP)
Heat Team Ranks:
Pace: 10th (104.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: T26th (103.3 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 14th (106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Heat have been a staple value stack the entire season thanks to the fact that they can’t ever seem to stay healthy.
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Both Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson have already been ruled out of this game, thrusting Josh Richardson ($7.9k FD / $7.7k DK), Wayne Ellington ($5.6k FD / $4.4k DK) and Rodney McGruder ($4.9k FD / $4.8k DK) into heavy minutes in the back court.
Richardson isn’t necessarily a value play based off of his price, but he’s almost a lock for 5x value. He holds a 26.6% usage rate with the above players out and is in full charge of leading the offense, making him a fine play across the board.
The value here comes at the SG position. Wayne Ellington has been lights out lately, posting over 34 FanDuel points in 2 of his last 3 outings. His 5 steals last game definitely padded his stat line, but he also added 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in what was his most well-rounded game of the season. He’s priced up a bit on FanDuel but remains an elite value on DraftKings.
McGruder has seen his production drop off since the beginning of the season, but continues to see minutes in the mid-to-high 30s and has posted at least 20 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 7 games. He’s a fine cash punt, but I would much rather look towards Dwyane Wade ($5.5k FD / $5.1k DK), who holds a team-high 30% usage rate with Dragic and Johnson off the court and has posted 75 FanDuel points over his last 2 outings.
Last but not least – our friends at FantasyDraft are sponsoring a Picks and Pivots Free Roll tonight with three $25 Pick and Roll tickets for Saturday’s slate on the line. The response to this was overwhelming yesterday and I am so pumped to be able to offer this to our readers due to the generosity of the folks at FantasyDraft.
Next. DraftKings NBA DFS Picks - Friday, November 30. dark