Real Madrid can return to the title race with Valencia win

Real Madrid’s problems haven’t yet been solved by Santiago Solari, but a win against Valencia this weekend keeps them in the title race.

La Liga’s chaotic start means Sevilla are currently top with only 26 points from 13 games, or in other words an average of two points per game. That rate wouldn’t have been good enough to win the title in any of the past 11 seasons. Barcelona are unable to keep clean sheets and Atletico Madrid have been unconvincing away from the Wanda Metropolitano. This provides Real Madrid with an opportunity, despite their slow start. They’ve already lost five times but are only six points off first place. They aren’t out of the title race yet.

Real’s problems are twofold: They have a dysfunctional defense and an underperforming attack. The decision to not properly replace Cristiano Ronaldo in the summer is starting to look like a huge mistake due to the sheer amount of goals that he brought to the team, even if their play had to revolve around him.

Valencia also started the season in disappointing fashion, although their issue has been purely in front of goal, where they struggled to convert chances; they have 11 league goals from 19.37 xG per Understat. Marcelino has created a solid defensive platform to work from that saw them finish fourth last season, so they’ve been drawing a lot of games. However, they appear to have finally addressed their problems with two consecutive wins against Getafe and Rayo Vallecano in the league, although their midweek defeat to Juventus saw them drop into the Europa League knockout rounds.

Last season’s clash at the Santiago Bernabeu ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw as Real dropped points in their first home game of the season. It highlighted their defensive frailties under Zinedine Zidane which other teams were able to take advantage of in the league. However, Real demolished them 4-1 in the return fixture to assert their dominance. Los Che have been a tough opponent for Real in recent seasons with only four wins in the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Injuries have plagued Santiago Solari’s reign so far and this match won’t be any different. Casemiro, Nacho, Alvaro Odriozola and Sergio Reguilon are all unavailable, while Isco was left out of the squad for their midweek match against Roma even though he wasn’t injured. He’s unlikely to be used as Solari has consistently favored other options. Valencia will be without Denis Cheryshev and Ezequiel Garay, so they’ll be reliant on Goncalo Guedes to provide natural width in the absence of the Russian.

Solari has favored a 4-3-3 formation since coming in, although he’s made their play wing-oriented and more focused on quick transitions rather than patiently building up play which was the case under Julen Lopetegui. Marcelino has stuck with a 4-4-2 shape through his tenure due to the solid defensive platform it provides even though it stifles the team’s creativity and can make their play predictable. Therefore, this could be an open game with both teams trying to play on the counter.

The midfield area will be a key battle for this match as Geoffrey Kondogbia and Dani Parejo are likely to be up against Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Marcos Llorente. The young Spaniard is a potential area of weakness with regular starter Casemiro being injured, but he impressed against Roma with his positional sense and willingness to receive possession even in dangerous areas.

Gareth Bale will face Jose Gaya down Valencia’s left flank in another important matchup. There’s an obvious height advantage the Welshman can exploit, so Mouctar Diakhaby will have to be aware of Bale’s runs into the box in order to ensure Gaya isn’t left isolated in an aerial contest with him. However, the similarities in pace mean it should be harder for Real to use Bale as an outlet on the counter. Real need Bale to step up and end his goalscoring drought in the league if they’re to start being consistent.

Solari has his first-choice defense available so a strong performance is needed from them after a campaign in which they’ve already conceded 19 goals. They kept a clean sheet in the midweek Champions League match against Roma, but they were incredibly lucky because the Italian side dominated the first half and Cengiz Under missed an open net from a few yards out. Marcelo’s frequent attacking runs certainly provides Rodrigo and others plenty of space to work in on the counter.