FanDuel NFL GPP Pivots: Week 13 – Feeling Luck-y?

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Week 13

Welcome back the 12 edition of FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots! As always, I’m looking to give our loyal FantasyCPR readers some GPP pivots off the chalk for your Week 13 Fanduel NFL DFS contests!

Last week was another week where a lot of chalk hit, but we did have some nice hits from the article in the Russell Wilson–Tyler Lockett combo and Joe Mixon in mop-up duty but for the most part, the chalk outperformed the pivots.

This is where I do my weekly reminder that chalk plays are often good plays.  Remember, you don’t need to build an entire roster of contrarian plays! What you need to find is the low-owned player or stack that goes off and shoots you ahead of the competition. Pairing low-owned plays with chalkier plays is usually the best strategy when making those GPP rosters.

I’m going to go position by position and try to identify the chalk plays at each position and then recommend my preferred pivot(s). The goal here is to try to find a lower-owned play that outperforms the chalkier play, giving you leverage over the field in your GPPs.

I use a variety of sources to identify ownership, and by this point in the week we start to see the DFS community start to consolidate ownership around 2-3 plays at every position, leaving a number of solid players in good spots overlooked. Without any further ado, let’s get into the picks!

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Quarterback

Chalk: Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston

Newton and Winston both project to be highly owned in a game with one of the highest totals on the board, but we’ve seen both of them let us down in good spots before. Lamar Jackson is the latest fantasy darling, who’s getting it done mostly with his legs, but has struggled to throw the ball accurately.

Pivots: Andrew Luck (8200), Jared Goff (8400)

Andrew Luck just keeps humming along, throwing for 3 TDs and over 300 yards again last week. He’s now thrown 3 or 4 TDs in eight straight games and he’s likely going to have to chuck it around 30+ more times this week for the Colts to beat the Jags on the road. Three weeks ago, Luck went 21-29 against the Jags for 285 and 3 TDs and we’re seeing this Jacksonville defense continue to be mediocre at best.

Luck was not sacked once in that game, and the Jags have a total of 2 sacks in their last three games. When he has time, Luck is going to find his receivers and tight ends and I think he shreds the Jags defense again as the Colts pull out a tough one on the road.

Jared Goff has been simply outstanding this season and he’s getting very little buzz this week. Despite having the best running back in the game in the backfield, the Rams have thrown the ball 35 or more times in four straight games, and Detroit’s defense has been much better against the run recently, holding their last three opponents under 60 yards rushing each.

This sets up well for Goff and the passing game. I like Goff to throw for 300+ and 3 TDs this week, and using him instead of Gurley is a great way to get access to the best offense in football at a fraction of the ownership that Gurley will carry.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Running Back

Chalk: Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, T.J Yeldon, Spencer Ware

McCaffrey looks like possibly the highest owned, high-priced RB this weekend and should be a staple of cash games. Aaron Jones gets a matchup with an Arizona defense that was just gashed by Melvin Gordon. Then we have some serious value opening up with punt plays T.J Yeldon and Spencer Ware who will be filling in for Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt and are in really good spots.

Pivots: Philip Lindsay (7000), Lamar Miller (6300)

I watched Philip Lindsay absolutely torch the Steelers defense last week. He needed only 14 carries to crack 100 yards and scored a TD. He is a really explosive and dynamic back, and I’m not sure why Denver hasn’t featured him more this season instead of Royce Freeman. He’s averaging nearly 6 yards a carry and nearly 9 yards a reception. If we can project 18-20 touches for him this week, then I think he could destroy the Bengals 31st ranked rush defense.

Lamar Miller had his best game of the season last week, as he went for 162 and a TD on only 12 carries. Now, granted that 97 yards were one long run, he still looked good and averaged over 6 yards a carry on his other 11 carries. He faces Cleveland’s woeful run defense this week. The Texans are 6 point favorites at home, and I like the way this game sets up for Miller and the Houston run game.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Wide Receiver

Chalk: Kenny Golladay, Adam Thielen, D.J. Moore

Thielen will become super chalk if Stefon Diggs is ruled out, but that may actually hurt him by allowing New England to focus primarily on him.  Golladay should be heavily targeted by his QB Matthew Stafford again this week but has only caught 19 of his 36 targets in the last three weeks. That catch rate is troubling.  D.J. Moore has had two solid weeks in a row and still badly mis-priced at 6.4k in an amazing matchup, he’s the one of these three I’m least likely to fade.

Pivots: Rams Receivers (Woods, Cooks, Reynolds), Adam Humphries (6000) + Chris Godwin (5400)

If I’m playing a lot of Goff, then I’m going to want some exposure to his three primary receivers. Cooks (7800) costs the most but likely has the highest ceiling with his ability to break big plays. He’s been targeted 12 times in both of their last two games but just didn’t find the end zone.  Woods (7300) is probably my favorite of the group. He was targeted 11 times last week but had only four catches, but one was for a TD. I think he’s good for 6+ catches this week and another score.

Reynolds is a nice value at only 5800 and has taken over Cooper Kupp‘s slot receiver role. His 6 catches for 80 yards and a TD in the shootout with KC opened some eyes and any time he’s had a chance to play major snaps, he’s produced. I’m likely going to have exposure to all three of these guys and possibly two of them paired with Goff in some lineups.

I’m looking to attack the Carolina secondary again this week, and I think Humphries and Godwin are the best options to do so. With DeSean Jackson ruled out, both of these receivers are likely going to have larger roles this week. Humphries plays in the slot and while he’s now 6000, I think he’s still a solid value as he’s had 11 targets over the last two games and caught a TD in both.

I’m a Penn State Alumnus so pardon my homer-ism here, but Chris Godwin oozes talent and if he’s going to be on the field for the majority of the Tampa offensive snaps this week, I want some exposure. He scored a TD in 4 of his first 5 games this season and has been without a score now for six straight games. He’s an excellent goal-line option for Winston and I think he gets back in the end zone this week.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Tight End

Chalk: Eric Ebron, Travis Kelce, Cameron Brate

Ebron just continues to catch touchdowns at an unsustainable rate but with teammate Jack Doyle now on IR, he’s projecting at the highest owned TE on the slate. I love the Colts passing game this week, so I’ll probably still have some Ebron. Kelce can break a slate at any point but costs a ton at 7800. Brate is still affordable but only paid off last week because he scored a TD as had only 3 catches on 4 targets.

Pivots: David Njoku (5500), Matt LaCosse (4700)

Njoku got back on track last week, catching 5 balls for 63 yards and a score and this week gets the ultimate matchup for tight ends – the Houston defense. The Texans are 30th against tight ends this season and I think there’s a high probability of Njoku finding the end zone again this week as the Browns offense looks energized with Baker Mayfield and a new offensive coordinator.

You might be thinking, “Who the hell is Matt LaCosse?” Well, he’s a 6’6″ journeyman who is now thrust into the role as the starting tight end for the Denver Broncos. He played well last week against the Steelers, catching 3 balls for 34 yards and a TD and he’s dirt cheap this week in another really good spot against the pathetic Bengals defense. He showed some nice chemistry with Case Keenum and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was heavily involved in the game plan this week.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Defense

Chalk: Kansas City, Green Bay, Denver

It looks like ownership could be really spread out at defense this week and while these three project for 10-15% each, none of them is heavy chalk. I’m not sure I can bring myself to play Green Bay or KC even if they are facing bad offenses because…well, they’re not good defenses.

Pivots: Tennessee (4400), Chicago (4800)

Tennessee looks to bounce back this week after giving up 72 points the last two weeks combined while only getting four sacks and no picks. I think they’re a better defense than they’ve shown recently, they did, after all, hold the might Patriots to 10 points and hadn’t given up more than 23 points all season until these last two games.

The Jets offense stinks. Even if D’Arnold returns, I don’t see them moving the ball on the Titans and I think they’re in a great spot to rack up some sacks and picks here at home.

Meanwhile, the Bears defense is projected as only the fifth highest ownership of any defense and looks to be in the single digits.  If the trend is to spend down at defense this week, then I want to spend up for an elite defense that continues to rack up takeaways and score defensive touchdowns. Eli Manning is going to have a tough day ahead of him with the Bears elite pass rush and I’m looking

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Sample Lineup and Overview

I want to stress that you don’t need to have a low-owned player in every roster spot. Some of the names I mentioned as chalk, I will be playing alongside some of the pivots that I wrote up. It’s all about leveraging the chalk on any given week and finding the right balance of chalk and contrarian plays.

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Stacking is important in any DFS sport, but especially in NFL DFS. I try to build my QB-WR stack first in many cases and then fill in around it.  If you’re good, you can build in multiple mini-stacks into the same lineup so that you have several different plays that are highly correlated. I’m going to have several different versions of Goff and Luck stacks

Here’s one way to build a lineup with some of the players I wrote up. Remember that the sample lineup is purely for illustrative purposes and it’s not necessarily a plug-and-play lineup. I just like showing how the builds come together to give you an idea of how to start building yours.

QB: Andrew Luck (8200)

RB: Philip Lindsay (7000)

RB: Christian McCaffrey (8800)

WR: Adam Humphries (6000)

WR: Robert Woods (7300)

WR: D.J. Moore (6400)

TE: Eric Ebron (5600)

FLEX: Lamar Miller (6300)

DEF: Tennessee (4400)

That’s all I got guys, I hope this article helps you build some GPP winners this weekend. As always, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with questions and comments and continue to look for in-depth NBA and NFL analysis from me and the rest of the FantasyCPR team!