DraftKings Main NBA Picks December 2: Embiid or Gasol?

WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 18: Damian Lillard #0 and Al-Farouq Aminu #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers and Markieff Morris #5 of the Washington Wizards go up for a rebound during the first half at Capital One Arena on November 18, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Main NBA Picks December 2: Embiid or Gasol?

We have four DraftKings NBA games for the evening slate. There is a healthy amount of star power here too with Philly and Memphis in play. There is still value in the Miami backcourt to help balance the stars. Where should we look to build?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,400): Lillard put up 46.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs in just 30 minutes of court time. What that tells me is that even if this game turns into a blowout, Lillard is going to get his. The Nuggets lock him down on Thursday after a historic game against Orlando on Tuesday. Expect Lillard somewhere in between those two extremes tonight.

Mike Conley ($8,500): For those of you worried about Conley’s production facing Simmons, McConnell, and whatever else they throw at him, don’t be. Conley put up 53.5 DraftKings points in that first meeting. Conley has been over 45 DraftKings points in six of the last seven games, and has topped 50 four times in that span. He is cooking right now, and should stay hot here.

Honorable Mention:

Ricky Rubio ($6,000): Rubio is at least worth a look against a Miami backcourt that is still missing Dragic and Tyler Johnson. Rubio is hard to use because of his erratic shooting, but that also feeds his upside. Rubio is priced as if he were to score zero points every game. When his shot is falling, Rubio consistently hits 6x value or higher.

Dark Horses:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5,100): I much prefer SGA over the streaky Lou Williams. Everyone knows you don’t play LouWill in the midst of a cold streak. He seems firmly planted in one of those right now. SGA has back to back games of more than 30 DraftKings points, and seems very underpriced here against the Mavs.

Wayne Ellington ($4,400): Ellington continues to play starter’s minutes in the backcourt, but his production has been sporadic at best. Ellington has a couple of 30’s surrounded by a 16 and 14 DraftKings point output respectively. If his game on game off pattern holds, Ellington should at least flirt with 30 DraftKings points here.

My pick: Rubio(PG), SGA(G) both lineups

CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 30: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz watches on before their game against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center on November 30, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Donovan Mitchell ($7,900): Mitchell has been the ultimate boom or bust play for much of the season. Now that he has topped 40 DraftKings points in two straight and three of four, is he safe? One could argue that if he weren’t hurt against the Lakers, that streak would be at four games now. I like Mitchell here against the beat up Miami backcourt, but understand that the volatility could still be there. I don’t think I would trust him in cash games just yet.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,800): DeRozan lit up the Blazers for 48.25 DraftKings points on 11-22 shooting in the first meeting. The Spurs have had a rough go of it lately, and DeRozan’s production has reflected that. However, this is a good place for the team and DeRozan alike to get back on track.

Honorable Mention:

Luka Doncic ($7,300): Honestly, it’s kind of hard to pay this for Doncic. He is a fun and exciting player to watch, but that doesn’t always translate to DFS stardom. Doncic has only hit value at this price three times in the last ten games. However, his floor is high enough that I would consider Doncic if playing cash games on a small slate like this.

Dwyane Wade ($5,300): Wade has been strong with all of the injuries in the Miami backcourt. He has played at least 27 minutes, producing at least 5x value in each of the last three games. Wade probably isn’t dropping a 50 like he did last weekend against Toronto again anytime soon, but the minutes are there and 5x value is pretty much a given.

Dark Horses:

Wesley Matthews ($4,500): I don’t really trust the minutes of Barea anymore with the whole backcourt healthy. Matthews is going to play between 25 and 30 minutes per game, which is where Barea’s minutes were. Something has to give. Matthews is cheaper than Barea and playing more, so he is a much safer value pick.

Landry Shamet ($3,200): Shamet still sees minutes in the 20’s every game. He is mostly a bench sharpshooter for the Sixers. Sometimes that’s a lucrative proposition for DFS play. Sometimes not. However, if you are looking for a value punt, Shamet provides more upside than most.

My pick: DeRozan(SG), Mitchell(UTIL); DeRozan(SG), Matthews(UTIL)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($8,600): Simmons put up a respectable 43.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Memphis. The production on Simmons has remained pretty consistent with Butler in the fold. In fact, Butler’s production is about the only one that has been adversely affected. Simmons remains consistent and Embiid has been mostly better, though he could have some problems with Gasol tonight.

Josh Richardson ($7,200): Richardson has taken it upon himself to recoup some of the scoring that the Heat are missing with Dragic and Johnson out. Richardson has hit 40 three times during their absences, but with Richardson’s price crawling up this high, it’s harder to hit value. I don’t particularly like the matchup with Utah, but Richardson is so heavily involved in the offense that it’s hard to count him out.

Honorable Mention:

Danilo Gallinari ($6,400): Gallinari is a good shooter who pours in points on any given night. He has the ability to get double-doubles, but his main asset is shooting. Gallinari has played at least 30 minutes in nine of the last ten games, and has been over 30 DraftKings points in five of the last six. His ceiling isn’t really high, but the floor is good enough that Gallo is a strong cash play and decent GPP play.

Joe Ingles ($5,200): Ingles is always a solid lineup filler because the price is right. Ingles almost always is in the mid 20’s or low 30’s for DraftKings points. At this point he is a cash game staple, and a solid addition to a GPP lineup if you have about this much left to spend.

Dark Horses:

Jae Crowder ($4,400): It was Crowder who put up big numbers in Korver’s debut.Crowder put up 39 DraftKings points in 33 minutes. Are we going to see this kind of production out of Crowder for the rest of the season? I doubt it, but it’s worth exploring this development against the Miami frontcourt.

Kyle Korver ($3,500): Korver put up 21.5 DraftKings points in his Utah debut, and he should be good for a healthy amount of minutes here. Korver took seven shots in his 22 minutes. There is risk involved since Korver does little but score, but we have seen sharpshooters have big value in DFS. Korver is safer than most since the Jazz acquired him to fill a specific role.

My pick: Gallinari(SF), Korver(F); Korver(SF)

WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 20: Tobias Harris #34 looks on against the Washington Wizards during the second half at Capital One Arena on November 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Tobias Harris ($8,000): Harris continues to play well for the Clippers and is capable of putting up big numbers on any given night. This is a good matchup for him against a Dallas team that isn’t all that strong in the middle. Harris has at least 35 DraftKings points in nine of the last 11 games, so he has a nice floor as well. There is plenty of value out there to use Harris tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600): On paper, this is a good spot for Aldridge. He did only put up 32.5 DraftKings points in Portland earlier this year. The production, or lack of consistent production, has been the knock on LMA this year. That trend doesn’t appear to be changing. All I can tell you is that this is a good matchup on paper. Whether Aldridge will show up and take advantage can’t be determined.

Honorable Mention:

Jaren Jackson ($6,300): Welcome to the chalk play of the night. After Jackson’s worst game of the year, he put up up best against the Nets. Yeah, it’s the Nets, but Philly isn’t that strong up front either. The one thing to watch with Jackson is the foul trouble. He could have his hands full up front again tonight. Toronto went at him and got him two fouls in less than a minute. Philly may try to do the same, but if Jackson can stay on the court, the potential is there for another big game for the price.

Harrison Barnes ($6,200): Barnes is pretty much a Gallinari who can play defense. He occupies a large scoring role for Dallas with Jordan taking on most of the rebounding. Barnes doesn’t have the ball in his hands a whole lot, so it does put a cap on his value. I prefer Barnes for cash games, but on a lighter slate, he may be worth a look in GPP’s if you are afraid of the ownership of the Clippers front.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,500): Aminu was a big part of the offense on Friday, going for 20 points and 32.75 DraftKings points. This is mostly an anomaly since Aminu is primarily a rebounder, but the Blazers could use some offense in the frontcourt. This may be a trend that continues. That makes Aminu an interesting GPP target, but I’m not sure I want him against Memphis.

Mike Muscala ($3,700): Muscala is outplaying Wilson Chandler lately, and he is finally seeing more minutes. With the size of Memphis in there, I would think Philly is going to need to use Muscala over Chandler as much as possible. This is a good value spot for Muscala if you need the cash.

My pick: N/A; Barnes(PF), Jackson(F)

WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 13: Marc Gasol #33 of the Memphis Grizzlies reacts after being called for a technical foul against the Washington Wizards in the second half at Capital One Arena on December 13, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,600): Embiid “only” put up 44 DraftKings points on Memphis in the first meeting. However, if Gasol is held out, we have to play Embiid. Embiid only played 22 minutes in the blowout win over Washington, so he’s going to be well rested. I’m not big on Embiid if Gasol is in. If he is out, I’m using Embiid everywhere.

Marc Gasol ($8,900): Gasol carried the same questionable designation into Friday’s game and ended up smashing the Nets for 51.25 DraftKings points. Gasol has at least 50 DraftKings points in five of the last seven games. He put up 48.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Philly. If Gasol plays without limitations, I’m using Gasol over Embiid.

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Honorable Mention:

Rudy Gobert ($8,400): Gobert has back to back 50 DraftKings point games, and now he gets Miami. Whiteside is a good rim protector, but he isn’t much of a defender. We could see Gobert go over 50 again tonight.

Montrezl Harrell ($7,700): We don’t need to worry about whether Harrell starts or not. He has at least 35 DraftKings points in six straight games now. Harrell is guaranteed 27-35 minutes per game, and his production has been strong throughout the year. I prefer Harrell in cash games, but on a lighter slate like today, you may not find a high upside play at this price. Something can be said for safe GPP plays on a day like this.

Dark Horses:

DeAndre Jordan ($6,700): Jordan’s numbers with Dallas have been mostly pedestrian, but now he gets his former team. I know Jordan isn’t all that happy with the way the Clippers left him to rot by himself last year after they traded Blake. That could translate to a little extra on the court from Jordan. I’m only chasing this if you like narratives though. There are so many good options at center.

Bam Adebayo ($4,300): The Heat are splitting the minutes between Bam and Whiteside almost down the middle right now. Whiteside’s per minute production is still outstanding, but his price is not when he is only playing 25 minutes per game. It makes much more sense to pay for Bam who is getting almost the same minutes at about a 2/3 of the price.

My pick: Gasol(C), Adebayo(PF); Embiid(C)

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