Fansided

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday December 3

By Brian Tulloch

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 01: Kyle Lowry #7 of the Toronto Raptors drives to the basket against Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 1, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 01: Kyle Lowry #7 of the Toronto Raptors drives to the basket against Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 1, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
NBA Team Beat Writers
SALT LAKE CITY, UT – OCTOBER 05: General view of game ball in a preseason NBA game between the Adelaide 36ers and the Utah Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena on October 5, 2018 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images) NBA DFS /

Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Sunday’s NBA DFS scores certainly came in well higher than I thought they would be at first glance as winning GPP scores on FantasyDraft were over 350 fantasy points as a result of a few monster nights from the slates biggest stars. Damian Lillard led all scorers with 61 while Hassan Whiteside (60) dropped a 20/20 on the Jazz for the two biggest performances on the evening. DeMar DeRozan came in at 57 and DeAndre Jordan delivered in his REVENGE spot with 16 points, 23 boards and 54 fantasy points!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

TORONTO, ON – OCTOBER 17: Kawhi Leonard #2 and Kyle Lowry #7 of the Toronto Raptors jerseys in the team shop prior to the NBA season opener between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena on October 17, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – OCTOBER 17: Kawhi Leonard #2 and Kyle Lowry #7 of the Toronto Raptors jerseys in the team shop prior to the NBA season opener between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena on October 17, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Monday Night Slate:

First off, who wants a FREE ROLL? Our friends at FantasyDraft hooked us up again and we want you to get in as valued Picks and Pivots readers.

Looking at Monday Night’s NBA DFS slate it feels odd that the only real injury news we are waiting on is the status of Kyle Lowry, who is officially questionable for a match-up with the Nuggets. It was widely assumed that Lowry missing Saturday Night’s game against Cleveland was just a rest spot for him but if Lowry is not able to return tonight then I would go right back to Kawhi Leonard ($17.6K) and Fred VanVleet ($9.9K) who took Lowry’s spot in the starting line-up in that game.

Kawhi put up 55 fantasy points against the Cavs and would be tasked with the heavy lifting here against the Nuggets with a team leading 33% usage rate with Lowry off the floor this season. VanVleet at under $10K becomes an elite value play with a clear path to 30+ minutes assuming Lowry is out but let me be clear, my interest in this game does not hinge on the status of Lowry, as even if he plays, I think this is a game we can build around.

One of the reasons for that is the pricing on the opposition here, the Denver Nuggets, who due to under-performance and a tough match-up, have seen their prices come down considerably. Take a look at the starting five for Denver and consider the profit potential as tournament plays tonight.

The beauty of this Nuggets team when it comes to NBA DFS is that they run their starting five into the ground and we saw exactly that in their last game with Portland (a similar pace opponent to Toronto by the way) where the starting five plus Monte Morris all played 29-36 minutes with no other bench player getting more 14 minutes.

This game here tonight pits the top team in the Eastern Conference standings against the top squad in the Western Conference and I honestly believe stuff like that matters in basketball. We saw it with the Raptors/Warriors the other night – it was playoff intensity and the 1v1 battle between Kawhi and Durant was every bit a statement kind of match-up.

The pricing on this game makes it ideal for a game stack despite the fact it is one of the slower paced games on the slate. This should be a highly competitive games with a concentrated minutes/usage distribution with or without Lowry on the floor so go ahead and mess with a lineup build and see how you like it – you can get Kawhi and Lowry/FVV and run it back with 4-5 Nuggets and still have more than enough salary for the rest of your roster.

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 01: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts during the second half while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on December 01, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 111-102. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 01: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts during the second half while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on December 01, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 111-102. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – So Many Stars:

One of the reasons why I think a game like the Raptors and Nuggets will get over-looked is because this slate is loaded with star power and high Vegas data that is going to drive much of the industry narrative today.

The Pelicans/Clippers game has the highest total on the slate at 237.5, only a 2.5 point spread as the fastest pace game on the slate and the only game where both teams see a pace boost. Anthony Davis ($20.2K) is the most expensive player on the slate and the fact he dropped 68 fantasy points against the Clippers the first time they met this year will give folks even more reason to play him.

This game is an absolutely viable game stack with all the usual suspects in play but keep in mind both teams are on the tail end of a back-to-back here with the Pelicans coming home from Charlotte and the Clippers traveling from Dallas after playing on Sunday night.

The Warriors and Hawks have the second highest game total on the night but also the highest spread at 10 and that is with this game being in Atlanta. Steph Curry ($17.5K) still feels a touch too cheap but with the Warriors getting back to full strength and the potential for this game to blow out, I am not sure this is where I want to play my superstar flag either. It was interesting on Saturday to see Kevin Durant ($19.9K) draw 20% plus ownership in GPP’s even with Curry back who was only 10-15% owned but my guess is we start to see that flip with the price difference between the two and the “wait and see” folks feeling better about Curry after his first game back where he played 36 minutes.

One thing to note in this game, Draymond Green is still out as is Damion Jones who tore his pectoral last game, and looking back at the rotations once he left, that meant extended run for Jonas Jerebko ($8.5K) who played essentially the entire 4th quarter along with Curry, Klay and KD.

Russell Westbrook ($20.1K) and James Harden ($19.7K) hare in very similar spots tonight as their teams see neutral point/pace game environments and are both priced about where we would expect them to be on any night where they have Paul George and Chris Paul available. I am not going to talk you off any of these stars tonight but I am also not sure paying up for any of them is the route I am going to go with a strong mid-tier that lends itself to a more balanced roster construction.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 01: John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards dribbles against the New York Knicks during the first half of a preseason NBA game at Capital One Arena on October 01, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 01: John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards dribbles against the New York Knicks during the first half of a preseason NBA game at Capital One Arena on October 01, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:

Both of the New York teams are an interesting spots tonight as the Knicks take on the Wizards and the Nets and Cavaliers play in Brooklyn. Here is my simple take on these games – they could be the key to winning a tournament but getting too much exposure to these volatile teams could completely crush your night.

I am not paying $17.6K for John Wall when I can get Steph Curry for $100 cheaper or Kawhi Leonard at the same price point. I could see this being a popular Tim Hardaway Jr. ($12.8K) spot with the Knicks seeing the largest point increase and one of the biggest pace boosts on the slate but any time THJ is popular you need to think twice before blindly clicking that button. It took THJ 47 minutes against the Bucks in OT to get to 38 fantasy points (which would just hit value at this price point).

Kevin Knox ($7.7K) may actually be the play here with Trey Burke out as he came off the bench for New York with a career game of 43 fantasy points and a team high 30% usage rate with Burke off the court. My issue with the Knicks is that on a slate this large, it feels like any where you go here is chasing and although the ceiling can be high, the floor can be cash line crushing for any of these guys.

The Nets and Cavaliers have some interesting pieces with Tristan Thompson ($12.5K) as an elite point per dollar play considering that he has double-doubles in five of his last six games and gets the “Centers versus Brooklyn” match-up. TT is one of my favorite one-off plays on this slate as his price point is reasonable enough for cash games and he has shown 50+ fantasy point upside in two of his last five games which makes him an ideal GPP target.

NBA DFS
DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 01: Kyle Lowry #7 of the Toronto Raptors drives to the basket against Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 1, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

This sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only. It is not meant to be a plug and plug lineup and may differ from any lineup I actually play tonight. 

More from FanSided

G: Jamal Murray

G: Kyle Lowry

G: Danny Green

F/C: Kawhi Leoanrd

F/C: Nikola Jokic

F/C: Paul Millsap

UTIL: Tristan Thompson

UTIL: Alex Abrines

Slate Overview: Creating a sample lineup with the slates biggest injury question mark is always fun, but I like to have ideas early in the day where I include questionable injury plays like Kyle Lowry to get an idea of what a potential roster build can look like as opposed to trying to jamming him in 20 minutes before lock after a full day of research. There are so many good games to target tonight for NBA DFS while this Raptors-Nuggets game may be a better real life game than for fantasy. The appeal for me is the pricing, you can stack up this game essentially any way you want with everyone being in the mid-tier and really only Kawhi being priced as an elite star.

Next. FanDuel NBA DFS GPP Breakdown - Monday, December 3. dark

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.