Alex Oliveira vs. Gunnar Nelson
Having won four out of his last five with his only loss in that span a “Fight of the Year” contender, “Cowboy” Alex Oliveira has made an excellent impression through the last two years. One or two good wins away from being a contender, Oliveira faces the returning Gunnar Nelson, a man ranked below him but almost certainly his most imposing foe to date. Nelson is off a loss to current top contender Santiago Ponzinibbio and a long stretch of inactivity; before the loss, Nelson was seen as one of the more promising fighters at the weight class, and he looks to get back to winning ways in Toronto.
Gunnar Nelson’s biggest strength has always been his grappling, but his wins over Brandon Thatch and Alan Jouban showed a slick outside striking game; he can manage the distance reasonably well and he has a solid counter arsenal. The elephant in the room is Nelson’s defense; Nelson has always been defensively quite bad in the pocket, with his only real recourse when his opponent swings being to hurriedly get back out to range until the fence stops him. Against a more athletic and a longer power-puncher like Oliveira, that’s hard to trust, and Nelson’s counter game isn’t potent enough to ensure that Oliveira will be wary to move forward. Oliveira got out-brawled by Yancy Medeiros but he should be able to smash Nelson in the pocket, and there isn’t much reason for Oliveira to be tentative against a man profoundly uncomfortable when his opponent gets in his face.
The dynamic switches on the ground, where Nelson is inarguably more talented; even just having the defensive grappling to survive a grappling-heavy fight against the great Demian Maia proves that, as does his ability to snatch quick guillotines against Omari Akhmedov and Jouban. Oliveira has shown some liability on the ground, most notably against Donald Cerrone (who took him down fairly easily and got a quick triangle) but it’s hard to see Nelson consistently wrestling Oliveira when each one of his entries leaves him very liable to get decapitated.
Until Nelson shows that he’s able to consistently find takedowns (at which point he becomes the thoroughly valuable live bet), the easy pick is Oliveira. Nelson may be slicker on the feet but his defense is thoroughly unreliable against an offensive dynamo, and he isn’t a reliable-enough takedown artist to trust in that part of his skillset before seeing it happen.
Prediction: Oliveira via first-round knockout.