DraftKings NBA Picks December 4: Can Lillard stay hot?

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans dribbles the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Picks December 4: Can Lillard stay hot?

We have a five game DraftKings NBA slate today. While there isn’t the star power that we enjoyed last night, there are still some intriguing plays out there and a few possible value picks in the Miami backcourt. For the first time in quite a while, we don’t have any teams on the second night of a back to back, so it should be all systems go tonight.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,800): Lillard has two games of over 60 DraftKings points in his last three. Denver held him down, but he has torched the Spurs and Magic, and now has a really good matchup with Dallas. With the way Lillard is rolling right now, it’s going to be hard to pass him up, especially in a short slate. He is the highest priced player tonight, but I also think he will come with high ownership.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,500): The price on Fox makes him harder to pay up for, but he is still producing 5x value most nights. There is good potential against a Phoenix team that likes to run and is very thin at point guard right now. Do you think Crawford or Okobo can stop Fox? Me either. This could be a big night for Fox.

Honorable Mention:

Darren Collison ($6,300): We knew this price spike was coming, especially after his 45.5 DraftKings point outburst on Saturday. The Bulls present another very good matchup for Collison. Even at this price, 6x to 7x value is on the table. Collison may even be my favorite PG on the slate, and he definitely is if not paying for Lillard.

Tyler Johnson ($5,000): Right now it looks as if Johnson will be back in the mix for the Heat tonight. If he is, my stance on Wade doesn’t really change, but Wayne Ellington‘s fantasy value evaporates. It will also take a chunk out of the production of JRich. Johnson is a guy who can score in a hurry, so I expect Wade to do the dishing and Johnson to do the scoring. This could be a very good night for the price for Johnson.

Dark Horses:

D.J. Augustin ($4,500): The veteran has been a solid facilitator for the Orlando offense. Augustin has topped 6x value three times in the last four games. Miami is starting to get healthy at the guard position, but they are still missing their best defender in Dragic. Augustin should be in for another pretty good night for his price.

Elie Okobo ($4,400): Okobo is getting a lot of minutes, but doing practically nothing with them. The rookie still has a lot of upside, and his price is pretty low, but he is best left for GPP formats as a dart throw. Booker is out for the foreseeable future, so we wont see instances where Okobo isn’t given minutes. We just have to hope that he does something more than the 9.25 DraftKings points in 30 minutes like on Sunday.

Derrick White ($4,200): The wheel has spun back to White starting at the point, and he has responded with 55.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. That is almost 7x value! White carries less risk than the others in this tier, but only if he starts. The Spurs still have Forbes and Mills back there, but White is outproducing all of them right now. He will continue to start as long as he does.

My pick: Lillard(PG), Collison(G); Fox(PG), Collison(G), White(UTIL)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – NOVEMBER 23: Zach LaVine #8 of the Chicago Bulls dunks against the Miami Heat at the United Center on November 23, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Heat defeated the Bulls 103-96. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Zach LaVine ($8,400): LaVine has at least 40 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, and has topped 45 in three of the last four. It’s really hard to move off of him right now, especially with Oladipo still out for Indianapolis. LaVine picked up 38 DraftKings points on the Pacers even with Oladipo in there. He could be in for another big night here.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,900): Mitchell’s shot wasn’t falling on Sunday, and that put a dent in his production. We are likely going to have to deal with this all season long. Mitchell still does enough to keep his floor fairly high on most night, but his shooting has been erratic all season. Even on a smaller slate there are options with higher upside and higher floors. If you play Mitchell at this point, you are pretty much going for low ownership. But if Mitchell comes through with a game in the high 40’s, you are likely going to be sitting near the top of the leaderboard.

Honorable Mention:

CJ McCollum ($7,100): Most nights I wont go out of my way to play McCollum, but the matchup here has me interested Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points to shooting guards this year. McCollum is consistent, but he is also almost always between 27 and 33 DraftKings points, meaning he rarely hits value. That kind of consistency is nice in cash games, but it falls well short in GPP formats. Tonight may be a time to use him in GPP’s though based on the matchup.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,800): The minutes are about the same on Bogdanovic and Hield, but much like last year, Bogdanovic has been the constant one. Hield is incredibly streaky, though he probably has more upside. Bogdanovic is a guy you can count on in cash games. Hield has more upside for GPP’s, but he can ruin your lineup very easily. Play whichever suits your needs best on a slate like this.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($5,500): Wade has been very solid with all of the injuries to the Heat backcourt. They are similarly shorthanded tonight, so Wade is assured another 27-30 minutes and the 25-35 DraftKings points that come with it. Wade’s handling of the point for some of his court time helps increase hit value with Wade dishing out 14 assists in the last two games. Wade is the guy to play if you want solid production and don’t want to deal with roulette with Heat guards.

J.J. Barea ($5,100): Those who rolled with Barea on Saturday lucked into value once Dennis Smith got his tooth knocked out. DSJ is still feeling discomfort, so if he is out again, Barea is a very strong value pick. If Smith is in there, it would likely take someone else leaving the game for Barea to hit value, but Doncic and Smith are both nursing injuries, so keep an eye on their status. Barea could come up big again if either one of them miss the game.

Jamal Crawford ($3,900): Crawford’s minutes continue to fluctuate as the Suns want to get Okobo as much court time as they can. However, with Booker now out for a while, we could see Crawford more in the high 20’s than mid teens for minutes. He is still a streaky producer because almost everything for Crawford is based on his ability to score. He could be a nice play against the Kings, but there is always risk involved.

My pick: N/A; N/A

SAN ANTONIO, TX – OCTOBER 24: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs shoots before an NBA game against the Indiana Pacers on October 24, 2018 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Edward A. Ornelas/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): DeRozan has a pretty tough matchup with the Jazz here, but on a shorter slate I still think people chase him. I wont be one of them, but I can see the allure. DeRozan is a much more consistent and capable scorer than Aldridge. I don’t really like any matchups for the Spurs, but DeRozan would be my pick to succeed against Utah if anyone does.

Josh Richardson ($7,000): Utah locked down Richardson over the weekend, and the pending return of Johnson could put a dent in his scoring. However, Richardson still put up 35.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Orlando. He should be a strong play for 5x value, but much above that could be being too optimistic.

Honorable Mention:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,600): I wont be as mean as DraftKings and put the two Bogdanovics together. Honestly, you can’t really go wrong with either one of them. I give the slight edge to Bojan tonight because Phoenix has been tough on SG’s and Bojan has put up some good numbers with Oladipo out. They are both consistent, but Bojan doesn’t have to worry about losing minutes because someone in front of him gets hot.

Justin Holiday ($5,400): Holiday now has six straight games with at least 25 DraftKings points. He has the upside for more, but his shot has been off lately and facing the Pacers wont make it any easier on him. Holiday did put up 27.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Indiana, so I would expect him within that area again tonight.

Josh Jackson ($5,300): Jackson has played well with T.J. Warren out, so I am less enthusiastic about this one if Warren ends up playing like he says he will. The team hasn’t said anything either way, but really, the Suns have no good reason to play Warren. Jackson is a strong play if Warren is out. Otherwise, I don’t trust that the Suns will play him enough at the two to get him 30 minutes of court time.

Dark Horses:

Terrence Ross ($5,000): Ross is back to the consistent production that he was showing in the beginning of the month before a mid November swoon. He now has four straight games with more than 5x value. Ross is capable of close to 7x value for this price, so he is going to be a strong value pick on a short slate. I will definitely have my exposure to him.

Wesley Matthews ($4,700): Dallas has a whole bunch of wing players, but they have made it clear that Matthews has a spot in the rotation. His stats are climbing as he is getting reintegrated to the team after missing a couple of weeks. The status of Doncic and Smith is worth watching here as well because Matthews could pick up some minutes at the two as well. It doesn’t really matter where he plays tonight. Matthews has a good matchup across the board.

My pick: Matthews(SG); Ross(SG)

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 16: Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Indiana Pacers celebrates after a three point shot against the Miami Heat at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on November 16, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Domantas Sabonis ($7,200): Sabonis was held in check by the Kings on Saturday, and his first tangle with the Bulls didn’t really go in his favor either. That said, the teams that have been able to control Sabonis with Oladipo out is a very short list. Charlotte, Houston, and Sacramento. That’s it. I’d take my chances with Sabonis against the Bulls again. This looks like a big spot for him on paper.

Aaron Gordon ($6,900): Gordon is very streaky and is usually hampered by nagging injuries. Whenever it seems like he is completely healthy is usually the time to pounce on him. This is a good matchup against the Miami front, but Gordon always makes me nervous. That said, Gordon is hard to fade here considering he torched Miami for 50.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting.

Honorable Mention:

Harrison Barnes ($6,600): Barnes has put up over 40 DraftKinsg points in back to back games. Portland isn’t all that strong up front, so I see Barnes having another good outing here. I trust Parker a lot less with Markkanen working his way back into minutes. I want to see how that situation plays out first, so I’m just going to use Barnes tonight.

Marvin Bagley ($5,600): Bagley is still listed as a game time decision, but it’s hard not to like him if he is cleared to play. Bagley has six straight games of more than 25 DraftKings points, and if he gets normal minutes, Phoenix wont be able to hold him under either. I want clear news of this either way before rolling with Bagley. If he is limited in any way, pass on him.

Lauri Markkanen ($5,400): This job was destined to be Markkanen’s sooner or later, and it appears that sooner is the case. Markkanen, after 20 DraftKings points against Houston in his 2018 debut, will move into the starting five against the Pacers. Be on the lookout for any news about a minutes limit, but so long as Markkanen plays at least 25 minutes or so, he should hit value with the potential for more.

Dark Horses:

Jae Crowder ($5,000): The Jazz have been giving Crowder good run lately, and he has responded with 70 DraftKings points over the last two games. They will likely need his size against the Spurs, so I think I may be willing to go with Crowder again. Crowder is especially lethal if he plays more than 30 minutes, so if he doesn’t start this game, I’m switching elsewhere.

Mo Harkless ($3,700): Harkless produces good numbers across the board, so I really don’t mind that he gets minimal looks in the offense. Aminu is a solid play as well, but he is $1,100 more and far more volatile. If Harkless sticks in the starting lineup, he will be in mine as well.

My pick: Barnes(SF), Crowder(PF); Gordon(SF), Barnes(PF), Sabonis(F)

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Best Bet:

Nikola Vucevic ($9,000): This should be a spot for Vucevic to have a huge game, but he also picked up just 28 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Vucevic does have at least 45 DraftKings points in four straight and seven of his last nine. With the roll he is on, I’m a little more inclined to overlook the struggles in the first game with the Heat.

Hassan Whiteside ($7,700): Just when we thought that the Heat were fading Whiteside out in favor of Bam, he goes nuts on Utah. Whiteside put up 41 DraftKings points in the first game against Orlando and played 34 minutes against Utah. That has me hoping that the Heat continue to play Whiteside his customary 30 minutes. If they do, he should have no problems hitting value tonight.

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Honorable Mention:

Jusuf Nurkic ($7,400): It appears as though Portland is finally starting to figure out what they have in Nurkic. He has played around 30 minutes in each of the last three games and put up at least 36 DraftKings points in all three. Portland should need his size against Jordan and Dallas tonight, so it looks like a good spot to pick Nurkic to keep this up.

Deandre Ayton ($6,500): Ayton isn’t carrying the Suns, but he continues to put up solid numbers every night. His scoring isn’t all that consistent, but that will come in time. Ayton has not had fewer than six rebounds in a game this season, so that helps give him a pretty good floor. We aren’t going to see Ayton rip off a 50 DraftKings point game, so he is probably better suited for cash games. He does have a good matchup with the Kings tonight though.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,400): The Kings are leaving WCS out there longer finally, and it is starting to pay off for them. He has 72.75 DraftKings points over the last two games and has a tasty matchup with the Kings. Sacramento seems to want to use WCS and Bagley together, so I expect them to give each of them decent run. Of course, none of that is carved in stone. It could be switched up at any time.

Dark Horses:

Myles Turner ($6,100): Turner put up 36.25 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes in the first game against the Bulls. Turner has been far from consistent, but he does have at least 30 DraftKings points in six of the last eight games. The absence of Oladipo has trickled down to everyone in the Pacers offense, so Turner should have no issues hitting value again tonight.

Wendell Carter ($4,800): Carter put up 33.5 DraftKings points in the first game with Indiana. We have yet to see what kind of impact the return of Markkanen will have on Carter. His numbers were down on Saturday, but I tend to think that was more product of the opponent than the presence of Markkanen. I do understand avoiding this situation, but Carter is priced right to take a shot on him if you’re game.

Richaun Holmes ($3,800): Holmes has played so well that the Suns can’t help but give him more minutes. In 23 minutes against the Lakers, Holmes racked up 29.25 DraftKings points, his sixth game over 20 in his last seven. Holmes remains a superb value pick at this price.

My pick: Vucevic(C), Holmes(F), Carter(UTIL); Turner(C)

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