Fantasy Basketball Picks – NBA DFS Game by Game Breakdown – December 4

Tonight brings us a nice sized five game NBA DFS late with very few of the biggest stars, leading us to an interesting night for Fantasy Basketball Picks!

This slate is going to be a sharp contrast from last night as there is not stud player priced over $9,800 and we already have most of the injury news. Last night brought up more injury frustration as Nikola Mirotic was ruled out about 30 seconds after the first game locked, sending everyone into a mad dash to adjust their lineups. Hopefully we don’t have to deal with that tonight so let’s figure out who we need to be playing with our Fantasy Basketball Picks.

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Bulls at Pacers

Pace Ranks – Bulls at 16th, Pacers at 26th

Bulls Breakdown 

Well, the Bulls are slightly more of an unknown tonight since they now have a new head coach. That likely won’t bring earth-shattering changes but it’s fair to say that Jim Boylen could run the team a little differently than ex-coach Fred Hoiberg did. Lauri Markkanen made his season debut in the last game and played 26 minutes and is starting. Those signs make it very encouraging to use him tonight. Since it was an elbow injury, the conditioning shouldn’t be too bad and Markkanen lifted 14 shots in those 26 minutes.

It’s not unreasonable to think he could play 30 tonight. His 25 percent usage was good to see but the 1.64 FPPM for Zach Lavine in 17 minutes with Markkanen is eye-opening as well. Sure, it’s a minuscule sample size but the presence of Markkanen changes how teams defend the Bulls dramatically. I prefer to tread cautiously in situations where there’s a new coach, but the stars of the Bulls along could be a worthwhile spot to start tonight. Jabari Parker is a great GPP target because he’s heading to bench and could see some second unit usage.

Personal Plays – Markkanen, Lavine

Players to Consider – Parker, Justin Holiday, Wendell Carter Jr.

Pacers Breakdown 

It doesn’t happen often, but Myles Turner might actually be a pretty solid play tonight given the matchup. The Bulls get hammered in the paint, giving up the second most rebounds and the fifth most points. That should be an area of weakness that Turner can attack and he has a 1.13 FPPM without Victor Oladipo. If we like Turner, that also has to bring Domantas Sabonis into the discussion.

The issue with him is the price too high for a player that will only see a certain amount of minutes? He’s averaging under 25 minutes a night but brings an insane amount of efficiency to the table in a great spot. His 1.52 FPPM without Oladipo leads the team by a wide margin but that pace at 25 minutes is only about 38-40 DK points. I love using Sabonis but the pice tag is questionable. Darren Collison continues to be a nice cash game option as the floor is generally there and the minutes are secure but catching him on a ceiling game is a little harder to do.

Personal Plays – Turner, Sabonis

Players to Consider – Thad Young, Collison, Tyreke Evans

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 30: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic drives the ball around E’Twaun Moore #55 of the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center on October 30, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Magic at Heat

Pace Ranks – Magic at 23rd, Heat at 10th

Magic Breakdown 

This could be a nice pace up spot for the Magic and that means I want to have a little bit of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucivec tonight. I wonder if Vucivec is the type of player that can give Hassan Whitside trouble on the other side of the ball here and the Heat do sometimes decrease Whiteside’s minutes if they feel he’s struggling. The big man for the Magic leads the squad in touches and is 16th in the NBA in paint touches. With Miami giving up 44 points a game in the paint this could be the spot where Vucivec has a really solid game. Aaron Gordon seems to thrive in the faster games and the Heat are nothing scary against the power forward position. What is a little surprising is he’s actually under 1.0 FPPM so far this season so it’s not like he’s been a monster to this point.

The Magic have four other players with at least 0.70 FPPM and perhaps it’s a case of having many cooks in the kitchen. One of those players is D.J. Augustin and the veteran point guard is a nice option this evening on the cheaper end of things. The Heat are giving up the fifth most DK and real life points to the position and Augustin is averaging the most points per game in four years(10.6).

Personal Plays – Vucivec, Augustin

Players to Consider – Gordon, Jonathan Simmons, Terrance Ross, Jonathan Isaac

Heat Breakdown 

The Heat come into this game very banged up as  Goran Dragic remains out of the lineup and the guess is Rodney McGruder could be out as well because he was absent from practice Monday. The good news for Miami is Tyler Johnson is probable for the first time int he past few games.  Johnson has no minutes on the court when both Dragic and McGruder are off the floor so I’d want to see if he’s on a minutes restriction before using him. With the Heat in the state that they’re in, I’d mostly prefer to stick with Josh Richardson and maybe Dwayne Wade or Hassan Whiteside.

Those are the only three players with a usage over 25 percent on the team and Whiteside does still interest me. He’s crushing FPPM with a 1.55 and the Magic are 25th in overall rebounding percentage. While there is potential that Vucivec gets him into foul trouble, there’s also potential for Whiteside to collect 15 boards and double-double with ease. He does average near 17 points and 15 boards in 12 career games vs the Magic center, which is generally the higher score than Vucivec himself.

Personal Plays – Whitside, Richardson

Players to Consider – Wayne Ellington, Johnson(depending on minutes), Wade

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Blazers at Mavericks

Pace Ranks – Blazers at 18th, Mavericks at 13th

Blazers Breakdown 

Damian Lillard comes into this game absolutely on fire, scoring at least 30 real points in three of his last four games. Granted, the one he didn’t was a very uncharacteristically poor effort but the Mavs are giving up the ninth most DK points to the position. Lillard might be one of, if not the best expensive spends on the slate tonight. I want to use C.J. McCollum in matchups like this where Dallas struggles to defend guards in general but the issue is still he doesn’t see time on the floor without Lillard. McCollum has only totaled 25 minutes without Lillard all season long and that puts a real damper on his potential tonight(and every night). The battle of the centers between Jusuf Nurkic and DeAndre Jordan might be fun to watch but I’m not sure I want to go there with either of them. The both rebound well and both teams are around mid-pack to centers. These two might wind up canceling each other out. If Evan Turner is back, he’s a fine cash play with a little more upside than normal against a bad defensive team.

Personal Plays – Lillard, Turner

Players to Consider – McCollum, Nurkic

Mavericks Breakdown 

First thing is first with the Mand and that means we have to see who’s actually playing. Luka Doncic missed the last game and you would have to assume Dallas would tread very carefully with the prized rookie. J.J. Berea comes into the spotlight as his FPPM soars with no Doncic but the price isn’t great. I would likely heard to Wesley Matthews ahead of Berea or Dennis Smith Jr(even with one fewer tooth). Dwight Powell comes into play as a punt option as well but these options take a backseat if Doncic is back. Harrison Barnes is a player I usually don’t have a lot of but the usage soars to over 33 percent without Doncic in a 72 minute sample size.

Personal Plays – Matthews, Barnes, Powell as a punt if Doncic is out

Players to Consider – Jordan, Berea

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Spurs at Jazz

Pace Ranks – Spurs at 25th, Jazz at 21st

Spurs Breakdown 

On paper, this game is a little ugly. The pace is nothing to write home about and the Spurs are a little similar to the Pistons. It’s a two-man show with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge and a little Rudy Gay sprinkled in. DeRozan has seen his numbers spike across the board this season since he’s pretty much the number one option in the offense. The Jazz are very stingy against the position in general but they also give up the fifth highest field goal percentage from 15-19 feet. Roughly a quarter of his shots come from that range and he’s shooting 45 percent. Aldridge will likely have to see the floor as much as he can to combat Rudy Gobert on the other side so just by minutes alone, he’s a fine option.

Personal Plays – DeRozan

Players to Consider – Aldridge, Gay

Jazz Breakdown 

Rudy Gobert is one of my favorite players on the slate tonight for a few reasons. One, he’s in great form lately. Secondly, the Spurs give up the ninth highest field goal percentage within five feet and only 19 of Gobert’s 207 shot attempts have come outside five feet from the hoop. Lastly, DeRozan leads the NBA in drives per game so Gobert comes with some significant block upside as well. He already averages 2.1 a game. The Spurs have also gotten torched by shooting guards this year so Donovan Mitchell at home is in a great spot as well. San Antonio is giving up the fifth most DK points to the shooting guards and Mitchell is attempting nearly 20 shots a game. I’m not sure if people have quite caught on to the Spurs not being a great defense this season. There’s a good chance I might play both of them this evening. It’s really these two players on my radar the most while Jae Crowder and Derrick Favors are likely fine cash plays.

Personal Plays – Gobert, Mitchell

Players to Consider – Ricky Rubio, Jae Crowder, Derrick Favors

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Kings at Suns

Pace Ranks – Kings at 2nd, Suns at 19th

Kings Breakdown 

This could be the game of the night for fantasy purposes and I have a lot of interest in a few players. Where I really want to attack the Suns is in the paint because there’s a clear weakness there. Willie Cauley-Stein is up first as the Suns have been pounded by centers all season long. Cauley-Stein has the athleticism to get up and down the floor and is going to take advantage of Deandre Ayton. The Suns give up the seventh most points in the paint and the 10th most rebounds in that same area. I’m also hoping Marvin Bagley is back for this game as he’s really been coming on lately.

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Out of the players who get significant minutes, Bagley leads with a 1.21 FPPM. The 19-year old is already averaging right about 13 and 7 in very limited minutes so far. The Kings should continue to get him on the floor as the season isn’t going anywhere. De’Aaron Fox has seen his assists spike to 7.5 a night and Phoenix allows the second most to point guards in the NBA. On top of all that, Bogdan Bogdanovic has been playing more minutes and the Suns struggle with guards overall. There’s a lot of reason to have multiple Kings players in the lineup tonight.

Personal Plays – Cauley-Stein, Fox, Bagley, Bogdanovic

Players to Consider – Buddy Heild

Suns Breakdown 

The biggest news from the Suns is that both T.J. Warren and Devin Booker are both out for this game. We look and see the Suns are 19th in pace and that doesn’t seem that special. However, they have bene in the bottom five through a decent portion of the season so they’re playing faster now. Warren has missed a couple of games and that has spurred on the resurrection of Josh Jackson for fantasy this year.

He’d be a great option with Warren out of the lineup and carries even more usage with Booker out. The Kings have also been gouged by centers so Deandre Ayton is a great option as well, especially considering how shorthanded the Suns are at the moment. The Kings give up the second most paint points and most paint rebounds while Ayton plays almost 32 minutes a night. Even Elie Okobo and Trevor Ariza are at least on the radar with the situation at hand, even though they’re not efficient.

Personal Plays – Ayton, Jackson

Players to Consider – Ariza, Okobo

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