FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Wednesday, 12/5 – Getting Defensive

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Welcome back, my fellow NBA DFS enthusiasts, to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS more than old guys love to wear New Balance shoes (really, Kawhi? I’m not sure I get that deal…)

All jokes aside, thanks for joining me for the FanDuel NBA Breakdown again today.  I broke my own personal record for views of my articles last month and I can’t thank my readers enough. Knowing that people are reading every day is what keeps me writing this column every chance I get.

As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Tonight we have a full 10-game slate, so there will no shortage of solid plays and it should be pretty easy to make lineups that you’re going to like. I’ll be going position by position today instead of game-by-game since we have such a big slate.

I’m also going to keep my “value plays” section where I spotlight players under 5k that we can use to help fit in our favorite studs.  And of course, I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  As the season goes along, we run into more and more injury and rest situations that can entirely change the slate so my best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Let’s take a look at what this slate has in store for us tonight!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Ten Game Slate

I usually like to get things started by looking at any of the major injury news that we need to be monitoring today and how it could potentially affect how we want to build our lineups.

***Nikola Mirotic was a last-minute late scratch on Monday and is a “game-time decision” for tonight. Hopefully, we can get some clarity of his status because if he misses we should see Julius Randle become massive chalk in a good spot against Dallas after he went nuts on Monday.

***Gary Harris is out for the Nuggets, so we should see Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig soak up his minutes, while Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are likely to get more shots with the first team.

***Taurean Prince is going to be out multiple weeks for the Hawks. The most likely beneficiaries will be Kevin Huerter and DeAndre Bembry but then again its Atlanta and they are running some of the least predictable rotations in the NBA right now.

***Marvin Williams is out for Charlotte and Cody Zeller sounds probable. Frank Kaminsky is firmly in play.

***Joe Harris is looking to return for the Nets tonight against OKC and if he does then that puts me onto Spencer Dinwiddie and off everyone else on Brooklyn assuming they go back to their pre-Harris injury roles and minutes.

***Draymond Green remains out for the Warriors, who also lost starting center, Damion Jones, last weekend. There’s some value to be had in the Warriors frontcourt.

***Reggie Bullock is out for the Pistons, which could spell more minutes for Stanley Johnson. But Johnson could lose some appeal if he enters the starting lineup as he’s been better off the bench this season.

As far as the Vegas info goes, we only have one big spread with the Warriors being 11-point road favorites in Cleveland. The lowest total belongs to Denver-Orlando at 208, while the highest total is in the Washington-Atlanta game at 234.

My favorite three games (in real life and possibly for DFS) all happen to tip at 8:00. The Sixers travel up north to take on the Raptors in a battle of the top two teams in the East. The Sixers were handled by Toronto in their October matchup but now have Jimmy Butler at their disposal.  The Bucks-Pistons game should be fun as those two teams are atop the Central division standings and that rivalry always turns into a battle.  Finally, the Grizzlies-Clippers game has only the 9th highest Vegas total but is the tightest spread as Memphis is only favored by one at home. I think that will be an excellent game between two surprising Western Conference teams.

Without any further ado, let’s get into the positional breakdowns!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Point guard is one of the deepest positions on the board tonight in my opinion and you could make a case for 6-7 guys as really good plays. I’m projection John Wall as chalk in his matchup with Atlanta and he’s going to be a strategic fade for me. I’m not really interested in paying for Russell Westbrook or Steph Curry, either.

Mike Conley (9100)

Some might scoff at paying this price for Conley, but this year’s version of Mike Conley has been well worth this price. He leads the team with a 28.5% usage rate and he’s already cracked the 50 point mark on FanDuel three times this season and has been living in the mid to high 40’s with regularity. I love Conley is a pace-up spot here against the Clippers and I think he’s going to exploit the rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on defense on his way to a big night. He was on his way to a big number in the first matchup between these teams last month before he fouled out in only 29 minutes – yet he still scored 33 FD points.

Eric Bledsoe (7200)

I mentioned that I really like the Detroit-Milwaukee game tonight. But I really don’t want to pay up for Giannis, who historically hasn’t done that well against the Pistons. Using Eric Bledsoe might be the perfect way to get access to the Bucks lofty team total. Bledsoe is coming off a season-high 27 real-life points and should be able to take advantage of the matchup with Reggie Jackson.  Since joining the Bucks last year, he’s averaged 18-6-5 in three games against the Pistons and he fits our theme of “getting defensive” today as he’s averaged 2 steals a game over his last 10 games.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

I’m looking to pay down at shooting guard into the mid-range or use some value plays. But there is one guy up top who I think might be worth spending up for tonight.

Bradley Beal (8500)

Every time the numbers say to play John Wall, I usually play Brad Beal instead. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Beal is 900 cheaper than Wall and offers a similar ceiling here. The Wizards have the highest implied team total so Vegas thinks they going to score a ton of points against Atlanta’s defense which ranks at the bottom of the league. He needs 50+ to pay off his price in tournaments here, so he’s a bit of a risky play even in such a good spot considering he’s only cracked 50 once this season.

Dennis Schroder (5900)

Let me just start by saying there are some other really appealing options right above Schroder (Brogdon, Lamb) and below him (Clarkson) but I like the “German Rondo” here the best at his depressed price.  Schroder is getting a ton of usage in his sixth man role and has put up back to back 30+ FD point games while averaging only 26 minutes in those two contests. I think he should produce here against the Nets reserves and if OKC gets a comfy lead then he could play some extra minutes down the stretch while Westbrook rests on the bench.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard (9800)

I named the article today with these two small forwards in mind. Kawhi is one of the more underrated players in the league and always seems to get overlooked in DFS, too. He’s just so consistent without ever being splashy and he gets it done in so many different ways. He had an awesome performance against the Sixers in their first matchup, in which he racked up 57 FD points in only 33 minutes. He scored 31 in that game has scored 30 or more actual points six times this season.

A player who scores with such ease while adding solid rebounding (8.5 per game) and defensive stats (2 blocks/steals per game) is always going to be an excellent GPP play, and I am absolutely enamored with Kawhi in this pace-up spot against the turnover-prone (5th worst in the NBA at 16 per game) Sixers.

Robert Covington (7000)

Moving on to the former Sixer, Robert Covington, who has found himself a home in Minnesota. His new coach loves him and is playing him huge minutes (36 per game) as his defense has helped to totally turn the T-Wolves season around. Covington has had a few nice shooting nights, but the defensive stats have been simply incredible as he’s averaged 3.9 combined blocks/steals since joining Minnesota. That’s 12 FD points just from defensive stats, something that you simply can’t ignore for GPPs.

I think he’s in a terrific spot tonight against Charlotte, a team that likes to push the pace and also happens to be 24th in the league against the small forward position. Ro-Co should be able to get it done tonight. He and Kawhi are the first two clicks in most of my lineup builds.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

John Collins (7400)

The talented second-year player is finally showing us what he can do. I remember writing him up in my “breakout players” article in October and was really bummed when he got hurt so early in the year.  He’s now played between 29 and 32 minutes in six straight games and is averaging 17-9-2 over that stretch with three double-doubles. He should be able to dominate inside against the Wizards and I like his chances for another big night and at least a 6x return on his salary.

Serge Ibaka (5900)

This is a great buy-low spot on Serge, who played 30 minutes in the Raptors’ first meeting with the Sixers this year and put up a 40-spot. When you see a guy averaging over 30 FD points drop below 6k you have to get some shares, considering that if he gets his average game you’re already at 6x.  Ibaka should get solid run tonight and could be used to defend Joel Embiid. His potential for a big defensive game is there as he had 5 combined blocks/steals against the Sixers last time out.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Nikola Jokic (9400)

This feels like the perfect spot to get back on the Joker. His minutes and production had seriously dipped down there for a stretch, but he’s played 32 and 35 minutes in his last two games and is coming off a triple-double in which he cracked the 60 FD point threshold against Toronto. He’s in the perfect spot to do work tonight against a Orlando team playing the second half of a back-to-back and he matches up with the soft defense of Nikola Vucevic.

The icing on the cake is that Gary Harris is out of the lineup. In games that Harris and Barton have both missed this season, Jokic has a whopping 35% usage and averages 1.74 FPPM.

Julius Randle (7000)

This is your obligatory reminder that if Nikola Mirotic is out, you play Julius Randle. Just play him. Now, if you want to be different, then play him even if Mirotic is ruled in and watch him go nuts against the Dallas bench. His per-minute production is elite, so he doesn’t even need a full 35 minutes to get us 40+ FD points.

Brook Lopez (5500)

I had to do some digging here, but I found my theory that Brook Lopez is a matchup nightmare for Andre Drummond to be proven correct. Lopez has a career average of 18-7-2 with 2.2 blocks against Drummond in 12 games. He’s yet to face Drum as a member of the Bucks, but I’m more than willing to take a shot at him here at this price, especially since his minutes and production have been trending up lately.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

I wanted to add this section to the breakdown so I could elaborate on some of my favorite values for each slate. For our purposes, I am going to consider a player a “value play” if they are 5000 or less. There are some really solid values here in this range tonight.

Kevon Looney (4800)

Looney made the most of his start at center on Monday, going for 37 FD points in 28 minutes. The minutes were a season-high and if he’s going to be playing 25+ until Draymond gets back then you can’t help but love him at this price. He’s a stat-stuffer who has 7x upside at this price.

Frank Kaminsky (3900)

“Frank the Tank” is one of my favorite values tonight. With “Starvin’ Marvin” Williams out for the Hornets, I think we get another 25 minutes out of Kaminsky and he’s perfectly capable of filling up the stat sheet and getting hot from behind the arc. Stretch fours and fives give the Minnesota defense fits, so I really love this spot for the former Wisconsin star.

Alec Burks (4100)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Burks has hit 20+ FD points in three straight games with the Cavs and his minutes and role seem secure for the time being. Heck, he even hit the game-winning shot for the Cavs on Monday, so I’ll go back to him here tonight at the same price in a pace-up game against the Warriors.

Kevin Heurter (4600)

Heurter has played an average of 28 minutes per game over his last three and should start for the Hawks with Taurean Prince out. The spot here is good for the young guard in this fast-paced game with the highest total. While he hasn’t scored a ton of actual points, his rebounding and assist numbers have been solid and he’s been good for 20+ FD points in four of his last five games.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Detroit (-7.5) @ Milwaukee (228 total)

I really love the non-Giannis pieces of this Milwaukee team tonight against the Pistons. Giannis has shown in the past that he’s willing to let his teammates have the glory when the opposing team focuses on shutting him down and his supporting cast is more than capable of carrying the scoring load.

Stacking this game without using Giannis will make your build unique. One of the first things we often do is lock in the stud(s) from the two teams in the game we want to stack without considering the opportunity cost of paying top dollar for them or the wide range of outcomes that the game may have.

My favorite plays on the Bucks side are Bledsoe and Lopez, but Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are certainly in play here too as they are very capable shooters and defending against wing players is one of Detroit’s biggest weaknesses.

For the Pistons, I would consider using Blake Griffin or Andre Drummond here but not both. Drummond stands out as being pretty underpriced at only 9300 and it’s a shame you can only play one center or else I would consider using him and Lopez in the same lineup.  Stanley Johnson is the other Detroit player who stands out here, and we mentioned him as a potential value already.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

I try to include as many of the players that I write-up in my lineups, but once in a while I can’t always make it work with the salary cap. I hope the new “value plays” section helps you fill in those rosters when you need to pay down and I’m looking to use 2-3 of those guys in lineups tonight since I think they are really solid values at their prices.

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I’m trying not to spend up on any 10k+ players tonight unless we get some kind of injury news that pushes onto one of those studs. I’m starting lineups with 9k players and Kawhi Leonard is my top “spend-up” with Mike Conley, Blake Griffin, and Nikola Jokic being the other guys in that range I’m really interested in.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s what I am looking at this morning.

PG: Mike Conley (9100)

PG: Eric Bledsoe (7200)

SG: Dennis Schroder (5900)

SG: Alec Burks (4100)

SF: Robert Covington (7000)

SF: Kawhi Leonard (9800)

PF: Frank Kaminsky (3900)

PF: John Collins (7400)

C: Brook Lopez (5500)

That’s all I had time to write (2500 words later!) I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  Keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!