Fantasy Baseball 2019: Patrick Corbin Signs with Washington

The Nationals signed top pitching free agent Patrick Corbin. How does his arrival affect Corbin and his teammates this fantasy baseball season?

The starting pitching pool of free agents did not feature any elite fantasy baseball arms. Clayton Kershaw was a free agent for a minute before re-signing with Los Angeles.

The top names were Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton before one announced their signing. Corbin will spend the next six seasons with the Washington Nationals. How does this affect his fantasy baseball value for 2019 and beyond?

Corbin was said to be deciding between the New York Yankees, a team he’s been a fan of, and the Nationals. The Philadelphia Phillies were also said to be in on Corbin. The Nationals were in need of another starting pitcher with the loss of Gio Gonzalez and the health concerns around Stephen Strasburg.

Corbin is receiving $140 million over six years because of his excellent 2018 season. He finished with a 3.15 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and an 11-7 record. However, looking at his previous performances, what version of Corbin are the Nationals getting?

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In his last four and a half season, he missed all of 2014 and some of 2015, Corbin averaged a 4.12 ERA, 1.348 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 with 45 wins and 47 losses. The numbers are inflated a bit due to his 5.15 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in 2016.

In three starts at Nationals Park, Corbin has a 4.80 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 14 strikeouts, five walks and four home runs allowed.

While those starts were against his new teammates, he may be vulnerable to the long ball against his new division opponents

Against those teams in the National League East, Corbin has pitched fairly well. In 165 combined innings, he has a 3.22 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 129 strikeouts and 46 walks.

Some of those lineups may have changed and some of those games were in Chase Field but those teams aren’t the best in the league regardless.

The Miami Marlins are selling everyone on their team. Despite adding Robinson Cano, the New York Mets offense still has some holes. The Atlanta Braves added two veterans to support their young roster. The Phillies have a good offense and are rumored to be adding another big bat to their lineup.

With the offense the Nationals have, even without Bryce Harper, they can still compete for a division title. Corbin will be able to maintain a 3.20 ERA with double-digit wins in 2019.

Corbin was drafted as the No. 60 starting pitcher in ESPN leagues last season, 226.6 ADP. He finished as the 12th best pitcher according to the Player Rater. That is a big jump for a pitcher with a career 3.91 ERA.

If I were to make my rankings now, Corbin would be in my top 20 for starting pitchers. It’s partly because I believe he can have the same success with the Nationals and also because there is a pretty big drop off in consistency after the top 20. He’ll be worth an eighth-round pick in most leagues.