DraftKings NBA Picks December 6: Is Lillard worth the risk?

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 03: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards reacts after making a basket during the fourth quarter of the game against New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on December 03, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks December 6: Two of the three games have double digit spreads, so we likely need to stack the Rockets-Jazz. Or do we?

Tonight seems like a letdown for our DraftKings NBA slate since there are only three games going on tonight after a big ten gamer last night. None of the six teams in action are on the tail end of a back to back, so we shouldn’t have to worry about anyone resting. However, Boston and Portland could be involved in blowouts, which can truncate your night in a hurry like on Tuesday night.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($10,100): Lillard has at least 57 DraftKings points in three of the last four games, but there is reason for apprehension here. The Suns got blown out of the building by the Kings on Tuesday, and Portland is a better team that that. With Booker already out, and Warren on the doubtful side of questionable, it would be nothing short of a miracle if the Suns managed to keep up in this one. So the real question that we have to ask is: will Lillard hit 50 DraftKings points in three quarters? How you answer that will dictate your lineup build.

Kyrie Irving ($9,000): The Celtics and Knicks have already played twice this year, so at least we have a baseline as to how this will go. The point spread is 12.5, but I’ll tell you right now to take the Knicks and the points. Boston won the first meeting by just two points, and the Knicks won the second one by eight points. Everything says this game will be pretty close. Irving has 86.25 DraftKings points in the first two meetings, so he should be right around 5x value tonight as well.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Paul ($7,700): As with Harden, normally neither of them are usually on my radar on a normal slate. However, this isn’t normal. This will be the only sure close game of the night. The first times these two teams squared off, Paul was out and Harden still only picked up 45.75 DraftKings points. We could argue that Paul is the safer pick, and I would definitely listen. If you are fading Harden, we pretty much need to take Paul. This is the safest game to have a piece of.

Ricky Rubio ($6,400): Rubio struggled against Houston the first time around, and the fact that Paul is playing isn’t going to help his cause any. However, Rubio has 102 DraftKings poinst over his last three games, and may finally be hitting some kind of offensive groove. If he is, this price is low. I still don’t trust him against Paul though.

Dark Horses:

Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,700): Mudiay has now started two games in a row, which is pretty impressive for anyone not named Tim Hardaway in this rotation. The absence of Trey Burke should help definite the rotation at the point a little more. That’s why I’m not really opposed to paying for Mudiay tonight, but the chances of him having a big game against Kyrie are pretty slim. We will just have to try and save elsewhere.

De’Anthony Melton ($4,200): If you thought Okobo was chalky on Thursday, Melton is going to be doubly so tonight. I’m not saying that I would pivot to Okobo either. The Suns let him play the little bit of time it was close and in garbage time and Okobo did nothing to prove he should be on the court. It makes sense for the Suns to run Melton so they can see what they have in him. They already view Okobo as part of the future. Melton is less defined for the organization right now. He should get quite a few minutes so long as Booker remains out.

My pick: Irving(PG), Melton(G), Mudiay(UTIL); Paul(PG), Melton(G)

WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 26: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets dribbles the ball against the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on November 26, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,800): Harden isn’t on my radar in a full slate with Paul back. However, on a slate this small and in the only game that is guaranteed to be a close one, he has to be on our radar. There is a great chance that Harden will be the only guy to hit 50, even if it is just barely. Can you find enough value if you fade Harden to make up the points if the other games turn into blowouts? I would say that one game for sure is a blowout. The other could go either way. We are essentially on a two game slate here. We almost have to play Harden.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,600): Mitchell torched the Rockets for 55.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. The presence of Chris Paul in this one, and the recent erratic play of Mitchell, should serve to keep ownership low. However, if Mitchell is hot and you have him, I can just about guarantee that you will cash on this slate. He is definitely worth a look here.

Honorable Mention:

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,600): I will say that I don’t expect Hardaway to hit value tonight. He hasn’t in either game against Boston. Hardaway was actually slightly worse in the win, but that’s all relative. Hardaway still had 30.5 DraftKings points in that one and had 33.25 in the first meeting. We can expect Hardaway in the 30’s. This is one of the few times that you will see me back Hardaway for cash games, but he seems like a pretty sure thing here even if he doesn’t hit 5x value.

Eric Gordon ($5,000): Gordon’s shooting prowess always gives him a pretty good ceiling, but Gordon doesn’t get nearly as many shots if Paul and Harden are both healthy. I do think that Gordon is a better cash game play, but he’s a solid mid range value option. Utah did hold him to 22.5 DraftKings points on 5-23 shooting in the first matchup though. There is risk involved.

Dark Horses:

Damyean Dotson ($4,800): Dotson has topped 30 DraftKings points in three straight games, so you would think the Knicks would let him play. However, they have dreams of big ticket free agents and ping pong balls, so the best interests of fans and DFS players alike will just have to take a back seat for a while. The Knicks should play Dotson. What that means to them remains to be seen.

Marcus Smart ($4,400): Smart has a clear path to minutes, but Dotson has a lot more chances when he is on the floor. I would use Smart as a value play in cash games, and flip to Dotson for tournaments. However, I think the GPP’s are going to be rife with crazy lineups tonight, so a normal cash game lineup may actually fare well in a GPP when they normally wouldn’t.

My pick: Dotson(SG); Mitchell(SG)

PHOENIX, AZ – NOVEMBER 08: Gordon Hayward #20 of the Boston Celtics handles the ball during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on November 8, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Celtics defeated the Suns 116-109 in overtime. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Gordon Hayward ($6,100): Hayward went for 36.75 DraftKings points on the Knicks in the last meeting. He got the public vote of confidence from Kyrie, and proceeded to destroy the Timberwolves on Satruday. Now a well rested Hayward gets another crack at New York. This is one of the few plays on the entire slate that I feel really good about. Hayward will be in all of my lineups.

Joe Ingles ($5,500): Something can be said for the solid production of Ingles on a short slate. He likely still wont help you take down a GPP, but he can certainly help you cash. Ingles put up 25 DraftKings points in the first game with Houston. I would say that’s about what we should expect for tonight. I still prefer Ingles in cash games, but there is room for him in GPP builds as well tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Jackson ($5,400): Jackson enjoyed his fifth straight game of more than 20 DraftKings points. That is going to happen again no matter how many minutes he gets so long as Warren is out again. Make no mistake about it. This game is going to be ugly, and there isn’t a whole lot to like about it. The problem is that this is a short slate, and most of the Suns are really, really cheap. Like cheap enough that they can hit value even if the starters only play 25 minutes again.

Marcus Morris ($5,300): Morris is less valuable with the Celtics at full strength, but he is still putting up decent numbers. If you use Morris here, you are trying to bank on the Celtics pulling away so Morris gets a few more minutes. He has only hit value twice in the last ten games, and in many of those games, he wasn’t even close.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,200): Normally, I just ignore the ebbs and flows in Aminu’s game logs. They are common knowledge to DFS players. However, Aminu has three straight games with more than 30 DraftKings points. The thing that really stands out is that Aminu has scored in double digits in all of them. He is still a really good rebounder, and it seems as though he is finally becoming part of the offense. In theory, this is a good place to test that theory since this is a glorified scrimmage for the Blazers. Aminu could be a pretty sneaky play here.

Dark Horses:

Kevin Knox ($4,500): The Knicks have started Knox in three straight games now, and he has responded with 89.5 DraftKings points in 88 minutes over that span. Knox looks pretty safe in the Knicks rotation right now, and I’m inclined to give him a look here. Most of the buzz says that the Knicks see Knox as part of the future of the team. It would make sense for them to develop him.

Mikal Bridges ($4,100): Bridges has 49.25 DraftKings points over the last two games, but I think a lot of that production dries up if T.J. Warren is a go. It’s looking like he wont be, so I’m okay using Bridges here. The Suns let Bridges, Melton, and Okobo play even when the game was really out of hand, which makes them more valuable than normal value plays.

My pick: Hayward(SF); Jackson(SF), Knox(F)

PHOENIX, AZ – NOVEMBER 08: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on November 8, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Celtics defeated the Suns 116-109 in overtime. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Jayson Tatum ($7,100): Tatum has at least 35 DraftKings points in three of the last four games, so it seems as though Boston is learning how to coexist with both Tatum and Irving on the court. Tatum put up 71.5 DraftKings points in the first two games against the Knicks, so it is pretty certain that he will be right around 5x value tonight. 5x value wont take down a GPP, but I have a feeling that it will be comfortably over the money line.

Honorable Mention:

Trevor Ariza ($5,600): Even though Ariza only played 27 minutes on Tuesday, he still put up 27.75 DraftKings points. As with the rest of the roster, the production was up with Booker and Warren out, but this team didn’t really have a go-to spot for buckets. That is going to be the case against tonight, and I fully expect Portland to put this away by halftime. However, The Suns have to play someone, so their value is a little safer than Portland’s.

Jae Crowder ($4,900): We don’t need to worry about Crowder’s minutes here. He will play as many as he can handle. All of the Jazz had truncated minutes in the blowout of the Spurs on Tuesday. Tonight should be a much closer game with Houston. Utah’s D is tough, and Houston’s forward D is tough, putting a bit of a damper on an otherwise popular game stack. At any rate, Crowder shouldn’t have issues hitting value at this price.

Dark Horses:

Richaun Holmes ($4,300): Holmes is a points per minute monster. Over the last eight games, Holmes has 195.25 DraftKings points in just 144 minutes. Therein lies the issue. Holmes doesn’t get that many minutes, but he has been over 22 minutes in each of the last two games. The Suns haven’t shown a willingness to play him alongside Ayton, but it might not be a bad idea. Then again, no one accused the Suns of actually wanting to win. .

Zach Collins ($3,400): Collins could get extended run if this game is a blowout like expected. Of course, this is a risky thing to bet on, but if you need a deep value pick, Collins should play most of the fourth quarter. I would still be surprised if he hit 5x value though.

My pick: Tatum(PF); Holmes(PF)

SAN ANTONIO,TX – APRIL 1 : Clint Capela #15 of the Houston Rockets hangs on the rim after a dunk against the San Antonio Spurs at AT&T Center on April 1 , 2018 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that , by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Rudy Gobert ($8,300): Gobert put up 37.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but things have changed since. Gobert is on a tear right now, putting up at least 43 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. He was well on his way to 50 again when he got to rest the entire fourth quarter against the Spurs. Gobert is going to have problems putting up high 40’s against Capela, but it’s tough to ignore what Rudy is doing right now.

Clint Capela ($8,000): Gobert held Capela to 33 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but teams have had moderate success going at him lately. Only Dallas and Cleveland have kept Capela under 40 DraftKings points over his last ten games. He is playing at a high level right now, and if pushed, I would take Clint over Gobert. But why choose? We can have both!

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Honorable Mention:

Jusuf Nurkic ($7,300): Unless you want Nurkic, or course. Honestly, Nurkic is one of the few Blazers priced where he can still crush value before resting the fourth quarter. The only other exception would be Evan Turner if McCollum is out. Nurkic could dominate the Suns even if he only plays 28-30 minutes.

Al Horford ($6,200): Horford is still one of the more agile bigs in the game. He has 73.25 DraftKings points in the first two games against the Knicks. Kanter has shown the ability to lock down on some centers, but not on Horford. Horford looks like a strong mid range play tonight and you can use him at F if you need to.

Dark Horses:

Noah Vonleh ($5,100): The source of New York’s unlikely win over Boston in the TD Ameritrade Garden or whatever it’s called was Vonleh. He racked up 41.5 DraftKings points on the unassuming Celtics in just 30 minutes. Vonleh’s production has fluctuated since, but you would have to think that the Knicks are going to need him here. Vonleh could be a very nice value play.

Meyers Leonard ($3,400): If you are playing Portland bench value planning on a blowout, Leonard is the guy you must have in your lineup. Leonard usually gets solid minutes during normal rotations, but in blowouts, he has played close to 20 minutes. It’s a risky thing to plan on, but everyone expects it. May as well get your part of the pie too!

My pick: Capela(C), Vonleh(F); Gobert(C), Capela(UTIL)

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