Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies: Week 14

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 25: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers hands the ball off to Aaron Jones #33 in the first quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 25, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 14

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story.
Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation.

Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Fantasy Football: Pass Funnel Defenses:

CAR (Pass: 28th, Run: 8th), NO (Pass: 20th, Run: 3rd), IND (Pass: 21st, Run: 4th), HOU (Pass: 15th, Run: 2nd),

Fantasy Football: Run Funnel Defenses

KC (Pass: 13th, Run: 32nd), LAR (Pass: 8th, Run: 25th), ARI (Pass: 9th, Run; 21st), CLE (Pass: 4th, Run: 26th)

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

ATL (32nd), OAK (31st), TB (30th), DET (29th), CIN (28th), CAR (27th)

Atlanta is ranked 32nd in defensive efficiency

Green Bay will play host to the visiting Atlanta Falcons this week, and Green Bay has a projected team total of 27.5 points. With both defenses struggling, this total has seen some sharp money come in on the over, moving it from 48 to 50.

Atlanta currently has the worst ranked defense in the NFL and with a new changing of the guard in Green Bay, I would expect Rodgers and the team to be fairly motivated on Sunday. The Packers have faced a stretch of tough defenses recently, and will now take on the leagues worst.

In recent weeks they’ve faced, Seattle (ranking 16th in defensive efficiency), Minnesota (ranking 8th in defensive efficiency), and Arizona (ranking 12th in defensive efficiency). The Packers offense hasn’t looked impressive, but I would expect positive regression this week.

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I do think that Atlanta should be able to have some success offensively, but I have some reservations. First, as of right now it’s expected to be near 20 degrees at kickoff. Matt Ryan and Atlanta have had notorious struggles, outdoors, in cold weather.

In addition to the weather, Julio Jones has popped up on the injury report with a foot injury. He has had nagging foot injuries throughout his career so this will be something to monitor.

Cincinnati is ranked 28th in defensive efficiency

After a huge prime time win on Sunday night, the Chargers will return home to take on the visiting Cincinnati Bengals.

LA is a massive two touchdown favorite, and they currently have one of the highest projected team totals, at 31 points.

Next. NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 14. dark

Los Angeles is another great example of a team who has faced tough defenses recently, but will now face one of the leagues worst.

LA has faced, Denver (ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency), Arizona (ranking 12 in defensive efficiency), and Pittsburgh (ranking 14th in defensive efficiency). I’ll be looking to have exposure to many different parts of the Chargers offense this week.