NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday December 6
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday Night’s NBA DFS scores were sky high across the board as the cash line in the $25 Pick and Roll on FantasyDraft was over 330 points which is enough some nights to take down a GPP! The night was run by the stars as three players, Westbrook, PG13 and KAT all went for 70+ fantasy points and overall 13 players went for 50+ fantasy points on one of the highest scoring DFS night’s we have had all year long.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Three Game NBA DFS Slate:
Before we jump into tonight’s NBA DFS slate, we have ANOTHER Free Roll from our friends at FantasyDraft as they continue to sponsor the Picks and Pivots Free Roll – giving away three $25 Pick and Roll tickets each night. Get in early each day – give this site some love, I promise you that you wont be disappointed. I mean what other site gives away Free Rolls on three game slates – nobody!
As we jump into this three game slate the biggest news we have to monitor is the status of CJ McCollum who is questionable to play with an ankle injury as Portland will take on the Phoenix Suns who will once again be without Devin Booker and T.J. Warren.
CJ McCollum is questionable for Thursday’s game versus Suns with a left ankle sprain
— Casey Holdahl (@CHold) December 6, 2018
Considering the opponent, it would seem like the perfect time to let McCollum rest and it would make Damian Lillard ($18K) a near must play as what will likely be the most popular play on the slate. Over the last two seasons with McCollum off the court, Dame has a massive 40.7% usage rate with 1.42 FP/M and gets to face a Suns ranked 27th in the NBA in defensive rating.
If McCollum is out, we could see Seth Curry ($6.3K) step into the starting line-up and much like was the case with the Austin Rivers last night, it becomes nearly impossible to make a strong case to fade a guy at minimum pricing who is locked into 30 minutes against one of the worst teams in the NBA.
If McCollum does play – then this becomes a total cross of spot for me but the fact we already have Vegas data out on this game would lead me to think he is going to miss.
On the Suns side – you can go ahead and chase that mess if you want, I will grab the Portland stud/scrub duo and look elsewhere in my builds tonight’s. DeAndre Ayton has been priced up to $13K and has not topped 30 fantasy points in any of his last four games and was called out for not being ready to play last game. De’Anthony Melton was a player I guarantee 95% of people didn’t know existed before last game and now watch his ownership sky-rocket even as his price jumps to $8.7K. The only argument I can make for the Suns is that you want to game stack this with your Dame/Curry duo but I honestly do not think that is necessary – this by far the worst team and player pool we have on the board and I am not going to clog up my roster spots on this slate trying to sort through the Phoenix Suns.
The one pivot you could make here would be to fade Lillard and play Curry as a one-off from this game in what could be a blow-out game that would leave Dame on the bench in crunch time. The nice thing about Curry is that he would likely be game script proof – playing starters minutes regardless of score as a result of McCollum missing – I doubt if the game gets out of hand that Portland will push vets like Evan Turner or Moe Harkless so Curry could crush regardless of how this game plays out.
NBA DFS – Game Stack:
On a short slate like this, I want to try and take a stand and hope that the spot in which I plant my flag is where the fantasy points fall. I have already made my intentions clear that Portland/Phoenix is a Dame/Curry spot for me assuming McCollum is out and that works out perfectly on FantasyDraft as we need to have players from three teams rostered so you can lock them in and then pick a game stack to run it back with.
We have two choices – Boston/New York or Houston/Utah – both with similar totals at 216-217 but we have a double-digit spread in Boston and a 2 point spread between the Rockets/Jazz. Personally, I think the spread and the star power/name value in Houston/Utah will lead that game to be the more popular game stack and as scary as it may sound – maybe fading Harden and company is the right move here tonight.
As much as the player pool in Houston/Utah is better, you are getting two of the slowest pace teams in the NBA this season and it also happens to be the slowest paced game of the night in a re-match of a game in late October that ended 100-89. I will say, if I am taking the “fade Dame” approach – then I am locking in James Harden at $19K on FantasyDraft as my pivot his raw point potential would likely offset anything Dame could/should do against the Suns and that raw point approach is key on a short slate especially if he comes at lower ownership relative to Lillard.
The Knicks/Celtics have played twice this season, with both games being close including a 103-101 Celtics win in New York and a Knicks upset in Boston where they won 117-109.
On the Celtics side, Jaylen Brown is expected back tonight which could kick Marcus Smart back to the bench but it sounds like he could be looking at a bench role upon his return.
#Celtics Jaylen Brown said he expects Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart to stay in starting lineup when he returns. Hasn't talked with Brad Stevens about it, but team is winning so that's what he would do.
— Scott Souza (@Scott_Souza) December 5, 2018
The starting five of Irving, Smart, Morris, Tatum and Horford has played 66 minutes together this season and it is no surprise that Kyrie Irving ($17K) leads that unit in usage and FP/M production at 31% and 1.46 FP/M. All of Tatum, Horford and Morris are putting up a FP/M of production in this starting unit and with price points in the $10K-$13K range, they make for an easy stacking target in the mid-range here tonight.
The Celtics get by far the biggest projected point boost on the slate, expecting to score over 6 points more than their season average, with a 115 total that rivals that of Portland so rolling out Kyrie and multiple of the Celtics secondary pieces is a viable strategy here tonight against a Knicks team that is 27th in the NBA in defensive rating this season.
Outside of the starting five, Gordon Hayward ($11.6K) has now seen his minutes trend up from 23-24 a night to a season high 30 in his last game against Minnesota where we went off for 58 fantasy points on the back of 30 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists while sporting a team high 32% usage rate off the bench.
The return of Jaylen Brown, a low usage player, should really not impact much of Hayward’s role and this is a spot where the talent level far exceeds his price point so I think we can safely jump back on here.
On the Knicks side – it is simple – Enes Kanter and Tim Hardaway Jr – as the core pieces for me each and every night. The last time these teams met it was Trey Burke who carried the load and dropped a 60 spot on Boston but Burke is sidelined tonight which means it will remain the Emmanuel Mudiay show for New York. The minutes are locked and loaded for Mudiay right now with 35+ in two straight games and with the success Burke had in this match-up last time out, there is a path that we can argue for Mudiay even at $11K.
Kanter and THJ are priced right in the $12K range which feels like the perfect GPP spot as there is ample profit potential on two guys that can give you 40-50 fantasy points on any given night. Noah Vonleh has finally rebounded with two strong games after a bit of a lull that has seen his price drop to $10K and he did put up 40+ fantasy points in this same spot the last time the Knicks came to Boston. As volatile as the Knicks can be, I think in a GPP you can make a strong case for 3-4 Knicks tonight which is a terrifying sentence to write in NBA DFS.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
This sample lineup is not meant to be a Plug and Play lineup and should be used as an illustrative example only.
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
G: Seth Curry
G: Kyrie Irving
F/C: Enes Kanter
F/C: Al Horford
F/C: Marcus Morris
UTIL: Tim Hardaway Jr.
UTIL: Gordon Hayward
Slate Overview: It seems crazy to think that an NBA DFS slate is going to boil down to the status of CJ McCollum but that appears to be the way this slate is looking. If McCollum is out – Dame and Curry will likely be one of the most popular pairings and it looks like on the surface to be a spot where you simply eat the chalk. My preference tonight is to take that duo and then pair it with a game stack of Boston/NY or Houston/Utah. The pricing on Boston/NY works much better than that of Houston/Utah where the core plays are all priced up but both are doable. Take a stand – be smart with your bankroll – and enjoy the night – and hey, get in the Free Roll will ya?
dark. Next. NBA DFS - Game by Game Breakdown - December 6
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.