Portland should relish underdog role against Atlanta in MLS Cup final

The Portland Timbers can’t match their MLS Cup final opponents, Atlanta United, for talent, but their style of play is ideal for this matchup.

The Portland Timbers are back in the MLS Cup final, three years after winning in 2015. It didn’t take them long to rebound from the rocky conclusion to Caleb Porter’s tenure, which ended somewhat mysteriously after the 2017 season. Giovanni Savarese, Porter’s replacement, has proven adept, or at least adept enough to navigate a tricky, inconsistent Western Conference.

Portland have earned their trip to Atlanta for this year’s final by adopting an identity reminiscent of Porter’s greatest successes: They’re pragmatic, they defend tightly in midfield and they release speedy attackers into space.

It’s never been a complicated formula. They rarely assert their dominance or dictate the pace of games, preferring instead to keep their lines connected. Reacting to what the opposition gives them allows the Timbers to make the most of the skill sets of their players. They possess the ball when allowed to possess the ball, and they maintain a compact defensive shape when the other team’s style requires them to.

Rarely are these choices black and white. Against Atlanta United in Saturday’s MLS Cup final, though, Savarese may not have to think too hard about his general approach. Everyone knows Atlanta will do whatever their can to launch their star attackers forward. Mostly, they’ve done that by sitting deeper, holding a conservative defensive line and isolating opposition defenders against Miguel Almiron and Josef Martinez.

Portland, then, should be comfortable staying deeper and preventing that from ever happening. Almiron running full-speed with the ball at three defenders — particularly if one of those defenders is Liam Ridgewell — is death. Savarese will do everything in his power to prevent transition defense scenarios.

Atlanta feast on chaos. They’ll draw you out with slow possession at the back, or they’ll let you venture forward with possession and then pounce the second you let your right-back perform any semblance of an overlap.

For most of this season, the Timbers thrived by preventing that chaos. Most of the Western Conference alternated between disorganized boredom, cluttered pressing and utter confusion (that’s you, Galaxy). The Sounders, when they weren’t sleepwalking through the first half of the season, proved pragmatic enough to rattle off wins against those teams. Portland were similar, though a bit more stable and likely less talented.

This practicality was a key feature of Porter’s teams, and that remains the case under Savarese.  Crucially, that style should guard against Atlanta’s counter-attacking and field-spreading attacking directness.

Unlike the Red Bulls, who traveled to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the conference finals and eschewed their usual pressing style for a more defensive shape, Portland have made much of their living on the stuff they’ll have to do to beat the Five Stripes.

New York, who were beaten soundly in that conference finals first leg, don’t have stud defensive destroyer Diego Chara, nor are they as well-versed in the intricate rotations defined by a 4-2-3-1 midfield shape. In various situations, the Red Bulls struggled when forced to decide between stepping and not stepping to the ball. Thus, they conceded dangerous space when they didn’t have possession.

This weakness manifests itself when the opponent can find small slivers within that midfield shape. Julian Gressel, the Atlanta right winger who pops up all over the field, did exactly that against the Red Bulls.

But the Timbers’ mobility in midfield sets them apart. Chara does the grunt work, but more importantly, he knows exactly where to be all the time. His tactical alertness puts him in a position to win duels and intercept passes. With the Colombian anchoring the set-up, midfield partner David Guzman and winger Andy Polo — who often acts as sort of a fourth central midfielder — don’t have to worry as much about abandoning space by stepping to the ball.

Portland are well-suited to playing defensively in Atlanta, so much so that they might even trouble an Atlanta team that faced little real challenge in a top-heavy Eastern Conference. But the Timbers’ talent quotient — which matters so much in these one-off games, and is so inferior to Atlanta’s — will offset any tactical advantage, at least on paper.

Defensive weakness could kill the Timbers. Zarek Valentin, who started at right-back ahead of the injury-prone Alvas Powell in last Thursday’s second leg in Kansas City, nearly lost Portland the game numerous times. He should have had a second yellow card, got megged on SKC’s first goal, and was consistently roasted by Daniel Salloi, to the point that Powell had to come on as a sub to stop the bleeding.

Ridgewell, the veteran central defender, is slow and sometimes mistake-prone. Larrys Mabiala looks to be on track to return for the final, though he is coming off an injury from earlier in the postseason. Portland are walking a thin line in Atlanta. They can’t afford to give away easy chances.

But the Timbers’ strengths are rooted in familiarity. They know how to scrape out results against the run of play and coax moments of magic out of attackers Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco. They could have just enough to steal an unlikely win.