DraftKings NBA Picks December 7: Can Griffin outscore the field?

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DraftKings NBA Picks December 7: The major stars tonight may not be the highest priced ones. Some of these stats may shock you.

We are back to ten games on our DraftKings NBA slate tonight. After what looked like a barren wasteland last night, we have seven superstars on the slate, and several more players priced in the $9,000’s. This is looking like Wednesday, when it took over 300 DraftKings points to cash. We need 6x value at the least!

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,400): Well, Russ torched the Nets for 71.75 DraftKings points on Wednesday in a game that stayed close. If this stays close as well, Russ is probably hitting 70 again. The Bulls are still beaten up, but There’s no way the Nets should have hung with the Thunder. Stranger things have happened.

Mike Conley ($8,400): The Grizzlies are going to have to run a lot more than they are used to, but it’s not that they can’t do it. This is a pretty athletic team with good shooters all over the floor. The frenetic pace should actually help Conley. I see him putting up very strong numbers here.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Lowry ($7,800): I really don’t trust Kemba right now, and truth be told, I’m not real crazy about running Toronto players here either because of the blowout risk. However, after watching what Russ just did to the Nets, Lowry at least deserves a look tonight. I suppose there is a chance that the Nets keep this close. Lowry isn’t the player Russ is, but he is bound to break out of his funk here, right?

Eric Bledsoe ($7,200): Bledsoe put up 41.5 DraftKings points in the first game with the Warriors, but Curry was out that game. Still, Bledsoe can handle these guards, and I’m out on Fox with his price that high. Bledsoe’s upside is much higher in a game that will be paced up anyways. Bledsoe also has 93.5 DraftKings points in the last two games. He is at least going to flirt with 40 here.

Jamal Murray ($7,100): With Gary Harris out it was Murray who picked up the slack. Don’t mess with the value plays who are only on the court because rules say they have to have five players. Murray took almost all of the production that Harris usually has. This puts Murray in a huge spot again. His floor could be 6x value tonight!

Dark Horses:

Lonzo Ball ($5,700): Ball put up a strong 37.5 DraftKings points on this same Spurs team just two nights ago. Why wouldn’t we go back to the well? He may not get quite that many in San Antonio, but I would bet Ball still hits 30 or more. That gives him good upside for the price with the potential to do what he did on Wednesday.

De’Anthony Melton ($4,200): The Suns are still starting Okobo, but he is doing absolutely nothing while he is in there. If you are the worst producer on the worst team, well, that’s bad. If Booker plays for some reason I’m off of Melton because I have seen nothing that says the Suns will play him over Okobo. However, if Booker is out again as expected, there is decent value for Melton since this game will be over by the end of the first quarter. Melton has 56.75 DraftKings points in just 49 minutes over the last two games.

Alec Burks ($4,100): Burks is a solid punt play for the Cavs, but Clarkson and Hood are going more than his right now. That could change. After all, Burks was one of the better scorers the Cavs had in his first two games here. Burks is far less inconsistent than Hood or Clarkson, so he is probably better left for cash games since he doesn’t have their upside either.

My pick: Ball(PG), Melton(G); Melton(G)

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 05: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers and DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs shake hands at the end of the game during a 121-113 Laker win at Staples Center on December 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,900): The 48.25 DraftKings points that DeRozan got on the Lakers on Wednesday was by far his lowest against them in the three games this year. If that’s his floor against the Lakers, DeRozan is one of the strongest high mid level plays of the night. His output could surpass some of the seven guys priced over $10k tonight!

Jrue Holiday ($8,500): Another game, yet another 35+ DraftKings points for Holiday. That’s his 13th straight over that mark. Of course, with Holiday’s price where it is, we need at least 45 now to feel good about playing him tonight. Holiday’s high floor leaves him an outstanding cash play again, but he may not have the upside we want for GPP usage. Of course, he has gone over 70 DraftKings points twice this year, so the upside is there.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($6,900): Russell is the kind of guy that can win your or lose you a tournament by himself. His shot volume is higher than the league has seen since Kobe retired and his percentage would make Allen Iverson blush. The thing that has Russell on my radar is what Butler did to the Raptors on Wednesday. If Russell is able to get the shots Butler did, he’s going to hit 50. Maybe even in actual points!

Buddy Hield ($6,200): Hield played just 18 minutes on Wednesday, but it wasn’t because of his performance. He poured in 20 points, but they were so far ahead of the Suns that the Kings played guys that I think they found playing pickup ball down the street. Hield has been on over his last couple of games, and he is still starting, so there is decent upside for the price here. However, Hield and Bogdanovic are pretty much interchangeable tonight. The minutes are about the same and so is the production.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Clarkson ($5,200): Clarkson is very hit and miss, but he also has the kind of upside that you want to target in GPP formats. He put up 42.75 Draftkings points on the Nets on Monday night. The Kings’ defense on the wings is almost that bad. Clarkson sees in the upper 20’s for minutes, so he can do a lot of damage in that time if his shot is falling.

Terrence Ross ($5,000): Keep fading him. I’ll keep enjoying Ross’s run of six games with at least 26 DraftKings points at single digit ownership. It’s going to happen again tonight.

Allen Crabbe ($3,900): Crabbe is starting and playing well over 30 minutes a game. The Nets may be bad, but at least they have defined rotations. Based on that alone, I respect them more than the Suns or Knicks. Crabbe is a sure thing for 20 DraftKings points. Considering he put up 34 on the Thunder on Wednesday, he could go a long ways towards helping our cause for a 300 point lineup.

My pick: Crabbe(SG); Ross(SG), Crabbe(G)

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 05: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers celebrates his three pointer during a 121-113 win over the San Antonio Spurs at Staples Center on December 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($10,800): For those of you that have read my stuff with any kind of consistency, you know that I like simple. This is as simple as simple gets. LeBron put up 61.75 DraftKings points on the Spurs on Wednesday, and that actually dropped his season average against the Spurs to 62.7 DraftKings points per game. Just play him!

Kevin Durant ($10,300): The Warriors offense was back in old form on Wednesday which means that Curry is worth a look, Klay is a desperation heave at best, and KD is the only one who consistently gets close to 5x value. Honestly, I’ll find the extra $500 for LeBron because I think the difference in output is going to be sizeable tonight.

Paul George ($9,100): George ravaged the Nets for a season high 47 points and 77.25 DraftKings points. There is a chance that the Bulls hang around longer than they should as well, but I really doubt that George comes anywhere close to 77 again. That said, even if he hits half that, he’s close to 5x value. George could be a solid pick at lower ownership tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Kuzma ($6,800): Ingram leaving the game early may have had something to do with the 41.75 DraftKings points that Kuzma put up, but I doubt it. That is Kuzma’s third straight game of more than 40 DraftKings points, and he has averaged 39.7 DraftKings points per game in the three meetings with the Spurs so far this year. Kuzma is a lock for 40, which gives us the coveted 6x value needed to cash tonight.

Rudy Gay ($5,900): Gay turned in his highest scoring night in almost three years on Wednesday night. That is a welcome sight, but can we trust it? Part of it, maybe. Gay is now averaging 39.9 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers this year. Against the rest of the league he is struggling to keep it at 25. Gay should be a strong play again tonight, especially if Ingram is out as expected.

Justin Holiday ($5,700): The Bulls have proven that they still have room for Holiday in their rotation. He isn’t going to take over a game like LaVine or Carter, but he does give solid production across the board. Holiday’s output has been pretty consistent lately, putting up over 25 DraftKings points in seven straight games. He even hit 50 once in that span!

Dark Horses:

Josh Jackson ($5,500): The Suns look worse than any team in recent memory with all due disrespect to the 2014-16 Sixers, the Knicks post-Melo, the Nets, the Cavs, the Bulls, and Minnesota post KG and pre KAT. Back to back blowouts without Booker and Warren in the lineup has made it tough to rely on anyone in a Suns uniform. However, Josh Jackson has been a constant through all of this garbage. He is a lock for 5x value with some upside if Warren is out again.

Justise Winslow ($4,300): Winslow’s versatility has come in handy for the Heat, who are going to be thin at guard once again. If Dragic plays, I like Winslow less, but if not, this could be a really good play. Tyler Johnson was rusty in his return, and Wayne Ellington will be out tonight. That would leave minutes lying around for Winslow, who has 495 DraftKings points over his last two games. The minutes are there, and the production is good for the price as well.

My pick: James(SF); Gay(SF)

CHARLOTTE, NC – DECEMBER 02: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dunks the ball against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on December 2, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,000): Giannis has a tough matchup, and we all know that Giannis is not one to play in a tough matchup. For Davis, I don’t know if there is any such thing as a tough matchup anymore. Dallas had allowed the least fantasy points to power forwards all year before Davis put 59.5 on them. Davis has only been under 52 DraftKings points twice all season, and they were in back to back games at the end of October. If he’s on the court, play him. Don’t overthink this. Davis is the safest DFS commodity out there.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,700): Normally I wouldn’t be all that excited about the matchup with the Nets, but after seeing what George just did to this team and seeing Kawhi’s 62.25 on Wednesday against Philly, I have to at least acknowledge this. I don’t think the Nets hang around here like the could with the Thunder, so that could take a chunk of out Leonard’s time. It may not be enough to knock him below 5x value though.

Blake Griffin ($9,400): Blake has absolutely dominated the Sixers. In two games this year, he has 148.25 DraftKings points. In two games! Philly obviously has no answer for Blake. I really like him at this price point, especially since we have to pay five digits for LeBron and A.D.

Honorable Mention:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600): Aldridge put up 36.75 DraftKings points against the Lakers on Wednesday, and that was his lowest total against them in three games this year. His average still sits a hair above 42, so the stats say that Aldridge should clear 5x value. That’s fine for cash games tonight, but I really don’t see where Aldridge is going to do something to help us take down a GPP.

Aaron Gordon ($7,100): Gordon often has more upside than actual output, but this is still a good spot for him against the Pacers. Gordon has 121.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. If he can keep putting up numbers like that, there is a small window to get big value on Gordon. We are still in that window tonight.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,300): We are looking for smash spots tonight, and Sabonis just isn’t in one at his price. Markkanen is though. He racked up 43.5 DraftKings points and played 32 minutes against the Pacers on Wednesday. The youngster looks healthy, and that’s bad news for the Thunder. Markkanen should be well above value even though his price is up another $900. He won’t be this good of a value for long, so enjoy it while it lasts.

Dark Horses:

Larry Nance ($4,900): The Kings have size and young talent up front, but that hasn’t translated into good defense. Nance’s minutes have been spotty and his production more so, but the fact that he has at least 25 DraftKings points in two straight games looks like a good sign. There is risk with Nance, but there is clear upside here if the team gives him the chance.

Richaun Holmes ($4,200): Holmes started for an ill Deandre Ayton last night. That lasted all of three minutes. Holmes actually played less minutes and had far less production than when he was a bench commodity. Still, Holmes was very near 5x value, and is still a solid punt, which we will need tonight.

Mike Muscala ($3,800): Don’t feel like playing roulette (picking a Suns value player) in a dumpster fire (the G-League Suns)? I present Muscala, who plays for the anti-dumpster fire Sixers. Muscala has played at least 24 minutes and put up at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight games. He is playing much better than Chandler, so there is a chance that his minutes could go up, especially with the behemoths up front for the Pistons.

My pick: Davis(PF), Markkanen(F), Muscala(UTIL); Griffin(PF)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,100): Embiid has 130 DraftKings points in the two games against Detroit this year. It’s amateur night when you compare that to Blake’s output, but what it comes down to is that Embiid and Blake are terrorizing each other’s front lines. Play them both and watch the fireworks! Your night may be over soon, but the late night stackers are going to have a hard time trying to catch you!

Nikola Jokic ($9,300): Charlotte’s center situation is better than you would think with Cody Zeller and Willy up there, but they are making do. I still don’t think either one of them can guard Jokic. Jokic saw a slight uptick in numbers with Harris out, and that should be the case again. If Murray goes cold, Jokic could put up huge numbers, but that’s not something we can count on. I would reserve Jokic for GPP only.

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Honorable Mention:

Tristan Thompson ($7,300): That’s three straight games of at least 40 DraftKings points for Thompson, and a fourth is guaranteed against the Kings, I don’t really trust anyone in a Cleveland uniform right now. The only exception is Thompson.

Steven Adams ($7,000): Adams didn’t ravage the Nets, but he does get another good matchup here with the Bulls. The thing here is that with PG and Westbrook, Adams isn’t really going to put up a huge game. That relegates him mostly to cash duty, but also, he can be the anti-Randle. Mirotic is back, and Randle has missed value more often than not with Mirotic on the floor.

Myles Turner ($6,400): We want so much to believe that Turner is finally getting it together. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in three of the last four games, and is $1,100 less than Sabonis. If you are looking to ride the wave with the Pacers front, it should be with Turner.

Serge Ibaka ($6,200): Ibaka hasn’t come anywhere near value in the last three games, so we are about to find out if the “he’s playing the Nets” narrative is a real thing.

Dark Horses:

Wendell Carter ($5,200): I’m not a huge fan of the matchup here, but the growth that Carter has shown, especially with Markkanen on the court, makes him look cheap for this price. I’ll take a chance that most will pass on this bad matchup because I could see Carter hitting value easily at this price anyway.

Jonas Valanciunas ($4,600): Jonas is only playing 18 minutes a game, but he put up 39 DSraftKings points against Philly and 22 against Denver. The Nets front is weaker than both of those combined. Valanciunas could dominate in his little bit of court time. Enough to blow away 6x value even.

Bam Adebayo ($4,200): Hassan Whiteside is home awaiting the birth of his child, so Bam is going to get extended run on this road trip. There is a chance that Olynyk poaches some of the value, but Bam has far outplayed Olynyk so far this year. He’s going to get first shot at this, and I think Bam hangs on to it this year.

My pick: Adebayo(C); Embiid(C), Adebayo(F), Thompson(UTIL)

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