NFL DFS – Daily Fantasy Stacks: Week 14
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NFL DFS and help you get a huge Fantasy Football week!
Welcome to the FIRST ever NFL DFS Stacks article! I know it’s a bit late, 14 weeks late to be exact, but ever since the start of NBA season, I’ve carved out a niche with the CPR team in targeting stacks, so I wanted to take it to the gridiron as well.
With that being said, we have a pivotal Week 14 for many teams, both in fantasy leagues and the NFL. Personally, I was lucky enough to snag the #1 seed in one league thanks to Todd Gurley, while missing the playoffs in another after a rash of injuries and disappointments. That, however, is why NFL DFS is great, because you can start over every week.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NFL Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
Week 14 NFL DFS Outlook:
At this point in the season, we have the heat of the playoff race and a rash of injuries to work with. This puts the playoff teams in great spots as they look to secure a division crown or sneak into a wild card spot and also opens up a ton of value from an injury perspective. Below are the most notable injuries that will impact Week 14:
- Melvin Gordon (Doubtful – knee): All expectations are that Gordon sits this week, which should open up opportunity for both Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson yet again, making them both popular value options.
- Emmanuel Sanders (Out – achilles): Recently placed on the IR with a torn achilles, the absence of Sanders should open up a massive amount of volume for Courtland Sutton, who’s priced extremely affordable across the industry.
- James Connor (Out – ankle): With Connor out, Jaylen Samuels should see a heavy workload against the Raiders leaky defense on Sunday. Working with a lead could lead to extra opportunity for Samuels, making him one of the best value plays on the board.
- Kerryon Johnson (Questionable – knee): Johnson did not practice on Thursday and is in danger of missing his 3rd straight game. Without Marvin Jones and Johnson, Detroit will struggle to move the chains, making the Cardinals D/ST an intriguing GPP option.
- Cam Newton (Questionable – shoulder): Take this with a grain of salt compared to the others, but Newton did not throw at practice on Thursday. Should he sit, we’d likely see an uptick in usage for McCaffrey but could expect some stacked boxes.
With the significant news out of the way, let’s head to the breakdown!
Primary NFL DFS Game Stack: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints (-10, 55 O/U)
This should be the first place you look when building your lineups on Sunday. Not only are the New Orleans Saints ones of the top offenses in the league, the Bucs defense is arguably one of the worst.
These two teams squared off in Week 1 in New Orleans, a game in which Drew Brees ($8.5k FD / $6.6k DK) threw for 439 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 48-40 victory. While he’s been significantly worse on the road in his career than at home, this is a matchup that you cannot overlook. The Bucs have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to QBs this season but have ranked top 6 in that category over the last 4 weeks. Regardless, Brees checks in as one of the top options on the board.
Figuring out which running back is going to have a monster game is trickier than we had hoped, but both Alvin Kamara ($8.3k FD / $8.1k DK) and Mark Ingram ($6.6k FD / $5.7k DK) have the potential to have ceiling games depending on the game script. Should this game result in a similar outcome as the first, we can expect Kamara to have a ceiling game. In their Week 1 matchup, he amassed 9 receptions on 12 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown while also adding 2 scores on the ground. Regardless of outcome, he should have a big hand in the game and for his price, he’s an elite play.
Should this game get out of hand early, Ingram would look to benefit the most being used to milk the clock. He’s failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in two consecutive weeks and was inactive for their week 1 tilt, but the Bucs have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to RBs (23.18 per game). They allow 4.66 yards per carry and have surrendered 13 scores on the ground. He could end up breaking the slate at his salary and makes for a great low-owned pivot off of Kamara.
Looking towards the WR position, the only player I have my eyes on is Michael Thomas ($8.3k FD / $8.6k DK). He’s seen less than 10 targets in 4 straight games as Brees continues to spread the wealth, but he’s still the best receiver on the team and it’s not close. With 28 passing touchdowns allowed this season (bottom 3 in NFL) by the Bucs, this is looking like a prime get-right spot for Thomas. While I won’t be rostering in cash due to other preferred options, I won’t talk you off of him.
Tre’Quan Smith ($5.7k FD / $4.5k DK) and Keith Kirkwood ($5.2k FD / $3.5k DK) are both extremely hard to trust, but make for fine GPP plays given their big play ability. You just have to make sure you’re comfortable stomaching the risk of a goose-egg.
Primary NFL DFS Game Stack: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10, 55 O/U)
The Bucs side of this game is much less attractive that the Saints side, but there is still a heap of fantasy value.
Jameis Winston ($7.7k FD / $6.2k DK) has played in 7 games this season and has topped 22 fantasy points in 4 of those, with 3 of them topping 25. While he is obviously a risk of being benched based on his performance, we should note that he’s gone 2 weeks without a turnover, making his leash seemingly a little longer. The Saints are right behind the Bucs against QBs this season and have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game, making Winston an elite mid-tier option.
With DeSean Jackson out again, this should continue to open up more opportunity for the rest of the receiving corp. Mike Evans ($7.7k FD / $7.5k DK) simply hasn’t been consistent enough to warrant consideration in cash games, as Winston has shown his clear preference with other receivers.
The WRs I will be targeting here are Adam Humphries ($6.5k FD / $4.9k DK) and Chris Godwin ($5.6k FD / $4.9k DK). Humphries has now recorded a touchdown in three consecutive games and five over his last five games. While that rate seems rather unsustainable, he’s also topped 50 receiving yards in each of the last 6 weeks. He’s a bit expensive on FanDuel, but load up on DraftKings.
My preferred WR play on FanDuel is Godwin. He saw 80% of the snaps in Jackson’s absence last week and was able to top the century mark in receiving yards. He saw 6 targets on the day and has topped matched or topped that mark 7 times this season. With Jackson expected to miss again, I would expect another uptick in volume and production for the under-priced receiver against a Saints defense that allows the most fantasy points per game in the entire league to WRs (30.80 per game).
Secondary NFL DFS Game Stack: Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Atlanta Falcons (+6, 50 O/U)
While I’m high on this game, I do expect it to go a bit overlooked with the Ravens/Chiefs game having a tighter-than-expected spread.
With that being said, the Packers defense has not been good. They came in as the 15-point favorite last week only to lose to the Cardinals and allow 2 rushing touchdowns to their backup running back.
While the Packers were hurt on the ground last week, I expect the Falcons to come at them with an aerial attack this week. Julio Jones ($8.4k FD / $7.9k DK) had one of his frustrating duds last week, posting a 2-18 receiving line. Prior to this, however, he posted at least 21 DraftKings points in 6 straight games while averaging 11.7 targets per game in that span. He’s a top-3 receiver on the week and fantastic play on both sites.
Piggy-backing off of Jones, Calvin Ridley ($6.1k FD / $5.2k DK) and Austin Hooper ($5.7k FD / $4.3k DK) find themselves in favorable spots as well, but the inconsistency surrounding their volume make them a bit riskier than Jones.
Ridley poses as a huge touchdown threat and is 2 weeks removed from a game in which he saw 13 targets. His ceiling is sky-high, but his low floor makes him a GPP play this week.
Hooper sees exceptional volume when comparing him to the rest of the TE field, as he’s averaged a shade over 7 targets per game over his last 4 games. While he’s never going to pop off for a 100-yard and 2-TD performance, he’s a solid cash play with a safe floor.
After mentioning all of the pass catchers, it only feels right to write up QB Matt Ryan ($8.2k FD / $5.6k DK). While his recent form makes me think he’s a bit over-priced on FanDuel, he comes in at a reasonable price on DraftKings. Over his last 5 games, Ryan has topped 24 fantasy points in 3 of those outings, all of which went for over 330 passing yards as well. The volume is there and so are the receivers. With Ryan being the 6-point underdog in this game, we could see him slinging it early and often, making him a fantastic play, especially on DraftKings.
Secondary NFL DFS Game Stack: Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers (-6, 50 O/U)
Ugh, where to start. The Packers FINALLY let go of Mike McCarthy in a coaching change which seemed to be months overdue and promoted long-time assistant Joe Philbin to the interim position. It’s hard to get a read on exactly what that means for this offense, but I have to imagine it’ll increase their production from a level that was just bad.
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Aaron Rodgers ($8.1k FD / $6.0k DK) threw the ball 50 times last week (season high) but was somehow limited to 233 yards and only 1 touchdown. I absolutely expect a strong bounce-back this week against a Falcons’ secondary that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season (22.21), making him a high-end QB1 and an extremely under-priced play on DraftKings.
Aaron Jones ($7.5k FD / $7.2k DK) hopes to be the primary beneficiary of the coaching change as he had been grossly under-utilized by McCarthy. Since the Packers’ bye, Jones has recorded 7 total touchdowns in the 6 games and has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over that span. He has yet to reach 20 carries in a game, but if the Packers can stay true to what Vegas is predicting (6-point favorite), we could see that come to fruition as he could kill the clock this week. I expect him to be an extremely popular play for good reason.
If Aaron Rodgers is to replicate last week and throw 50 times, then you’d have to love Davante Adams ($8.7k FD / $8.4k DK). In my opinion, he’s one of the most under-appreciated players in the entire league as he racked up another 13 targets last game for 93 yards and a score. He’s now posted at least 80 yards or a touchdown in every single game this season, locking him in as an elite WR1.
Jimmy Graham ($5.6k FD / $4.4k DK) saw a season-high 11 targets last game and while I have a hard time imagining that happens again, you never know after the coaching change. His price is low enough on DraftKings where he makes for a good play against a leaky Atlanta secondary in GPPs, but I prefer Gronk for $400 more in cash.
Top NFL DFS GPP Stack: Los Angeles Chargers (vs CIN)
With a lot of the attention on the Saints, Chiefs and Falcons this week, I really hope the Chargers go overlooked.
With Melvin Gordon expected to sit, more responsibility will fall onto Philip Rivers ($8.3k FD / $6.5k DK) to lead them to victory. I highly doubt he will have any trouble as they have rattled off 8 wins in their last 9 games and take on the Bengals, who allow the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. If the Chargers get out to an early lead, we could see them limit Rivers’ reps, making him more of an elite-GPP play for me this week.
Where my interest lies with this team is the backfield and the WR position. While Austin Ekeler ($6.7k FD / $6.2k DK) should draw the start and have a high floor/ceiling combo in this game, I’m absolutely infatuated with Justin Jackson ($4.5k FD / $3.8k DK) this week. He took over in the second half and totaled 63 yards and a touchdown on only 8 carries on the ground. What makes him even more attractive is the quote from Chargers HC Anthony Lynn below:
More Lynn, on Ekeler: "He's wearing down a little bit. He's a core special teams guy for us and he's played a lot of running back for us. So he's a little tired. You might see Justin (Jackson) play a little bit more, you might see (Detrez) Newsome play some this week."
— #AskFFT (@daverichard) December 4, 2018
For $3.8k on DraftKings, he comes in as a fantastic pivot off of the chalky Jaylen Samuels.
Keenan Allen ($7.9k FD / $7.4k DK) comes in as perhaps my favorite overall WR this week and I frankly expect him to go under-owned. He saw a whopping 19 targets last week (don’t expect this again) and has now scored in 4 straight games. If the Chargers blow this game wide open, I expect Allen to be a huge part of that. He’s way too cheap across the industry, just lock him in.
Next. Week 14 NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdowns. dark