DraftKings NBA Picks December 8: Should we use LeBron?

MIAMI, FL – OCTOBER 20: A detail of Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat shoes prior to the game between the Miami Heat and the Charlotte Hornets at American Airlines Arena on October 20, 2018 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Picks December 8: There is a ton of value out there, but which stars do we want? Do we want any of them?

This is a busy nine game Saturday, but our DraftKings NBA slate only has eight of the games in it. The Texas battle starts earlier, so that means we are left without Capela and Harden against Dallas. That could serve to keep the scores down a little. Only the King is priced in five figures, but there are some great plays out there tonight. Let’s explore them!

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Mike Conley ($8,700): There are a lot of ways to waste money on point guards tonight. Poor matchups and an overpriced Kyrie land us at Conley, who was miserable in his own right last night. The question here is whether you think Conley will have two clunkers in a row. There is potential here against the Lakers, but for me, Conley is overpriced as well, especially after the letdown last night.

Jamal Murray ($7,800): I was all over Murray last night with Harris out. Even if Harris plays tonight, Denver isn’t going to push him in what should be an easy win. I expect Murray to soak up most of Harris’s usual production again tonight. The only thing that worries me a little is the blowout potential, but there is a good chance that Murray still hits 5x value even if he only plays three quarters.

Honorable Mention:

Darren Collison ($6,700): Collison put up solid numbers in a tough spot last night, so I’m definitely not afraid of using him against a Kings team that he torched for 45.5 DraftKings points the first time around. Collison is playing even better now than he was then, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets close to 50. This is one of the few players that may push me off of Murray tonight.

Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,800): Thankfully for us DFS players, Trey Burke is out so the Knicks don’t have as many players to replace Mudiay with. They don’t really have another true point guard with the exception of Ntilikina, whom they aren’t really playing right now. The result has been three straight games of 34-36 minutes for Mudiay and three straight games of at least 5x value. This is about as sure of a thing as you can get with the Knicks.

Lonzo Ball ($5,600): Ball has racked up 75.5 DraftKings points in 78 minutes over the last two games. That means Luke Walton is going to run Ball until he passes out with Rondo and Brandon Ingram out. The minutes load alone shoots the stock of Ball up there a ways. It doesn’t matter if he scoring or not. If Ball can stay on the court, value is a sure thing.

Dark Horses:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5,000): There is always a risk starting a rookie, but I do see value with SGA against the depleted Miami guards. His production has been sporadic all year long, but at this price, you really don’t need a big game to hit value. The problem with SGA is when he misses value, he usually misses by a lot. There isn’t any in between.

Tyler Johnson ($5,000): Johnson knocked the rust off with a solid shooting night against the Suns. Of course, the big news here is that Dragic returned and the Heat still won by just 17 points. That should count as a loss against the worst team in the NBA. At any rate, Johnson will get even more opportunities with Dragic resting tonight. 6x value is probably his floor here.

Alec Burks ($3,900): Not only did the Cavs free up space in their backcourt by moving George Hill, they also fleeced the Bucks in said move. With Hill out of the picture, Sexton and Burks are going to get a lot more run. Burks will do more with his minutes windfall than Sexton. Sexton does improve every time on the court, but Burks has been a great veteran presence on a team that needs scorers. He is way too cheap right now. This is chalk we likely have to deal with.

My pick: Murray(PG), Johnson(G); Collison(PG), Murray(SG), UTIL(G)

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards reacts after hitting a basket against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,800): This is an outrageous price on Beal, and I will tell you that i will only consider it if Wall is out again. Beal has back to back games of more than 50 DraftKings points, but he had less than 50 combined in the two games before this mini hot streak. If Wall is out, the volume is high enough that Beal can still come up big. The problem there is that he is owned like Bam was last night and you get virtually no separation. Austin Rivers is probably the way to go if Wall is out, but I can make a case for using both.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,100): The Knicks have held Russell to 53.5 DraftKings points in two games this year, but both of those game with LeVert in the lineup. Russell’s sheer volume makes him worth a look. He was on last night. If that carries over into tonight, Russell may actually be a bargain at this price. Of course, he has more risk than anyone else priced in this tier as well.

Honorable Mention:

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,900): Here we have quite the conundrum. The Nets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to shooting guards this year, and Hardaway is a shooting guard in the truest sense of the word. There is deep divide among THJ here at the FantasyCPR home office, and I usually tend to straddle the line. This looks like the spot where we should avoid Hardaway at all costs, right? Maybe not. THJ has 83.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets this year. Take that, statistics!

Buddy Hield ($6,300): Hield and Bogdanovic are splitting minutes, but they are both playing minutes in the 30’s. Right now, Hield is producing at a better clip. As a rule I tend to use Hield in GPP formats because he is streaky, and right now, he is riding a nice hot streak. Bogdan is better for cash games because of his trademark consistency. Use whichever fits your needs, or use them both. Neither is a bad option right now.

Dark Horses:

Lou Williams ($5,300): People keep flocking to Williams in GPP formats because at some point he will go off. That has been the calling card of his career. LouWill can have a dozen pedestrian outings in a row. Maybe even two dozen. But a couple of times a season, he’ll drop 70. Miami’s guards have been ravaged by injury. Dragic is sitting out the second night of a back to back, and Ellington is doubtful tonight. This could be the place where Williams goes off. Are you willing to take the chance?

Jordan Clarkson ($5,100): Clarkson is a strong scorer on a team that lacks scoring options. For that reason, he is a popular GPP pick. Clarkson really doesn’t do anything besides score, so if he goes cold, you’re sunk. At this price, you are basically betting on him scoring 20 points to get anywhere close to value. That said, there aren’t many Cavs that he fights for scoring opportunities, to the upside is there.

Kevin Huerter ($3,700): Huerter is still starting and still playing 27 or more minutes a game. He now has four straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. That’s a solid 6x value, which makes Huerter a solid punt play in both GPP and cash formats. There is no upside with Huerter really, but if you are getting 6x value anyway, what’s your real beef?

My pick: Hield(SG), Bogdanovic(SG)

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 27: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers dunks against the Denver Nuggets in the first quarter at the Pepsi Center on November 27, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

LeBron James ($10,600): LeBron is the most expensive player on the slate tonight, so I’ll write him up. I am mostly indifferent to the King tonight. He ravaged the Spurs twice this week, but the two games before that, he played only 31 minutes. Memphis is a solid defense and they aren’t a team that plays fast, so nothing really stands out to me for LeBron here. If you want to use him, I’m not going to knock it. I just think there are better guys to build around. LeBron doesn’t look like much to get excited about tonight. The main reason to play LeBron tonight is the steep drop between him and the rest of the position, which is bizarre on a slate where half the league is in action.

Honorable Mention:

Danilo Gallinari ($6,900): I don’t really like the middle tier of SF tonight either. Tatum is overpriced. Harris has cooled off. I don’t like the matchup for Gallinari, but the fact that he has eight straight games of 30 or more DraftKings points isn’t lost on me. Gallo is probably the cash game star at the position tonight, but I think us GPP savants are going to look elsewhere.

Kyle Kuzma ($6,800): Ingram is out again, so fire up Kuzma! Kuzma has between 41 and 44 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. That is putting him a shade over 6x value. The macthup with Memphis is not a great one, but I am far more inclined to play a streaking Kuzma over LeBron against this defense, and it is mostly based on price.

Otto Porter ($6,400): Usually Porter and Oubre chalk nights don’t pan out, but they both his value with Wall out. That said, it was against the Hawks. Cleveland isn’t that good of a team, but they are better than the Hawks. I would temper my expectations, and I’m pretty much off of all Wizards is Wall plays, but if he misses again, there could be value in Porter and Rivers.

Dark Horses:

Andrew Wiggins ($5,700): Usually I hate playing Wiggins, but he may finally be figuring out his role on this team. Wiggins went for 42.5 DraftKings points against the Hornets on Wednesday and nearly hit 30 the game before that. He also has 68 DraftKings points in two games against the Blazers so far this year. This looks like a good spot for Wiggins considering the price, but I still don’t trust him.

Justin Holiday ($5,500): Oklahoma City is one of the best teams in the league against small forwards, and Holiday went over 30 DraftKings points for the second straight game and the sixth time in the last nine games. This is another tough matchup against Boston, but Holiday just may hit value, and the ownership should be pretty low.

Kyle Anderson ($4,500): Anderson exploded for a career best 52.75 DraftKings points last night against New Orleans. He contributed across every category, and shows what a force Memphis can be with another accomplished scorer on the court. The Grizz haven’t needed Anderson’s scoring yet, but maybe this outburst will help him become more involved in the offense. The minutes are there, and so it a great matchup with the Lakers. Can he capitalize again?

My pick: N/A; Kuzma(SF)

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks reacts after being charged with a foul against the Washington Wizards at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Domantas Sabonis ($7,500): If Sabonis is in there, he will be in all my lineups for Sacramento. However, he was out with an illness last night, and Kyle O’Quinn went bonkers. Lock in O’Quinn if Sabonis is out. Otherwise, pay the price for him against the weak Kings interior.

John Collins ($6,800): Denver has allowed the least fantasy points to power forwards this year, but I have a feeling they are going to regress with Millsap out. The first one to get to try and take advantage of that will be Collins, who has 125.5 DraftKings points over the last three games. If Sabonis is out, you can safely move to Collins. If you don’t trust that Sabonis is completely over his illness, Collins is a suitable pivot there as well.

Honorable Mention:

Robert Covington ($6,400): The trade to Minnesota has helped make Covington a hot DFS commodity once again because he is pretty much what he was with Philly for the last two years. A strong defender and capable scorer. Covington probably isn’t dropping 50 anytime soon, but he has been over 30 DraftKings points in five straight games and over 25 in every game in Minnesota.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,200): Markkanen was a beast again last night in what was supposed to be a tough defensive matchup. The only thing that worries me tonight is if the Bulls either limit Markkanen’s workload or rest him entirely in the second night of a back to back. If Markkanen is in there with no limitations, he is probably my favorite at the position tonight.

Marvin Bagley ($5,300): Bagley’s balky back kept him out for a couple of games, so it’s not unreasonable to think that the Kings could play it safe with the rookie in the second night of a back to back. However, if Bagley is in there, this is a strong matchup for him. I would only use Bagley to get some pack separation as I see plenty of better options at the position.

Dark Horses:

JaMychal Green ($4,700): Jaren who? Green has taken his starting gig back with a vengeance, putting up at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight games and topping 38 in each of the last two. That’s almost 9x value! Green is way too cheap against the Lakers. Enjoy his low price while you can. It wont be for much longer.

Juancho Hernangomez ($4,300): Juancho tore up Charlotte last night, and now with Paul Millsap likely missing a big chunk of time, Hernangomez could be in line for even more minutes. His price wont be this accessible for long. Juancho destroyed the Hawks earlier this year, and it’s not hard to see a scenario where Hernangomez flirts with 10x value tonight. You HAVE to play him.

Trey Lyles ($3,500): Lyles or Mason Plumlee will be starting for Millsap, so use whichever one gets the first crack at the starting role. Honestly, I can see a scenario where both of them come into play, especially agianst a weaker Atlanta front. Most will take a wait and see approach, so getting some separation here makes sense. Of course, we could wind up with Amir Johnson circa last night.

My pick: Hernangomez(SF), Green(PF); Plumlee(PF)

ORLANDO, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 05: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic and Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets talk after the game at Amway Center on December 05, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Harry Aaron/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($9,200): I still don’t trust Towns against the top half of the league on the interior. Jokic is easily the safer pick, especially when faced with Millsap’s absence. There is good value here for Jokic tonight against a weaker Atlanta front. However, Jokic played just 25 minutes in the first meeting, a blowout win. He still put up 43.25 DraftKings points.

Marc Gasol ($8,600): Gasol has not been over 33 DraftKings points in any of the last three games, which is well below 4x value in all of those. So why use him? He’s playing the Lakers! That’s not the centers vs. the Nets narrative, but the Lakers are still pretty bad on the interior. If Gasol is going to get back on track, this would seem to be the place that he does it.

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Honorable Mention:

Enes Kanter ($7,300): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS!!

Tristan Thompson ($7,100): This would look to be a spot where Thompson can take full advantage of a Washington interior that is still missing Dwight Howard. However, The Cavs attacked the Kings with guards last night in a spot where Tristan should have been huge. Will that happen again? This is a good matchup, but I’m nervous. And did you hear Kanter is playing the Nets?

Al Horford ($6,600): Horford dominated the Knicks on Thursday, putting up 47 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes. This is a good matchup on paper again for Horford, but the Bulls are starting to get healthy in the middle. Add that to what is likely to be pretty high ownership, and I’m probably leaving this situation alone tonight.

Myles Turner ($6,600): I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t mention Turner here. Last night in a smash spot, he didn’t even hit 20 DraftKings points. However, Turner mauled the Kings for 41.5 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes the first time around. Do you trust that or the horrid game that Tristan had against the Kings last night coupled with Turner’s own disappointment?

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($5,800): Allen goes mostly unnoticed since he gives up far more points than he scores on the interior. However, most nights Allen hits value and his price never changes. Allen has 60.25 DraftKings points in the two games against the Knicks this year. That puts him right over 5x value.

Bam Adebayo ($5,400): Bam was a monster with Whiteside out last night, and will be again tonight. His ownership approached 60% last night, and could be even higher tonight. I don’t care. We need him. The winning lineup had chalk in it last night. Just find another way to separate yourself.

Boban Marjanovic ($4,000): You know, the Clippers must be doing something right since they have the best record in the West, but they are still doing something horribly wrong. Something so wrong you would think they are the Suns or the Knicks. They are still starting Gortat over Boban. Not only that, but most games in which Gortat is active, they don’t even play Marjanovic. Boban only played 13 minutes against Memphis on Wednesday, but he crushed them for 32.5 DraftKings points. Can you imagine where the Clippers would be if they actually unleashed the beast? FREE BOBAN!

My pick: Jokic(C), Kanter(UTIL), Adebayo(F); Jokic(C), Adebayo(F)

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