FanDuel NFL GPP Pivots: Week 14 – So…Much…Value!

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Week 14

Welcome back the Week 14 edition of FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots! As always, I’m looking to give our loyal FantasyCPR readers some GPP pivots off the chalk for your Week 14 Fanduel NFL DFS contests!

We had some success last week with Philip Lindsay who had a monster game against the Bengals and with both our Tampa receivers Godwin and Humphries (who are now likely chalk this week. This week, things are going to be interesting as we have several value plays that are looking particularly chalky. It feels like the popular move will be to use a “stars and scrubs” lineup build so I either want to go more balanced with my builds or pivot off some of the chalky value for other some sneaky value plays to be different.

This is where I do my weekly reminder that chalk plays are often good plays.  Remember, you don’t need to build an entire roster of contrarian plays! What you need to find is the low-owned player or stack that goes off and shoots you ahead of the competition. Pairing low-owned plays with chalkier plays is usually the best strategy when making those GPP rosters.

I’m going to go position by position and try to identify the chalk plays at each position and then recommend my preferred pivot(s). The goal here is to try to find a lower-owned play that outperforms the chalkier play, giving you leverage over the field in your GPPs.

I use a variety of sources to identify ownership, and by this point in the week we start to see the DFS community start to consolidate ownership around 2-3 plays at most positions, but especially running back and wide receiver, leaving a number of solid players in good spots overlooked. Without any further ado, let’s get into the picks!

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Quarterbacks

Chalk: ????

I’m seeing some several different sites project ownership differently at QB this week, but it doesn’t seem like there’s anyone who’s looking like major chalk. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers would be my best guesses as to which QBs might crack double digits.

Pivot: Josh Allen (7400)

Allen is my pick at QB this week. He not only comes cheap, but he also comes in hot, scoring 26 and 30 FD points in his last two games. A lot of those points came from some gaudy rushing totals and he’s carried the ball 22 times for 234 yards and a TD the last two weeks. He has four rushing TDs this season and is averaging 48 yards on the ground per game so he’s showing that the scrambling is part of his game and not just fluky production.

The upside here is huge here for the rookie QB if he continues to use his legs. The Jets defense is mediocre at best and Allen should be able to keep the chains moving for the Bills offense this week. He has shown some solid improvement as the season has gone along and has some nice chemistry going with his favorite target Zay Jones.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Running Backs

Chalk: Ezekiel Elliot, Philip Lindsay, Alvin Kamara

I have no problem with any of these backs, but they are all pushing 20% or more in ownership.

Pivots:  Aaron Jones (7500), Mark Ingram (6600)

I’m really amazed that Aaron Jones is only being projected around 10-12% as he is in an awesome matchup for any running back this week against the 27th ranked run defense of the Atlanta Falcons. Recency bias is likely to keep some players from rostering him as he was heavily owned last week and turned in a relatively disappointing performance managing only 13 FD points.  Perhaps some players will avoid him, too, because of the uncertainty around the Packers after the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy last week. But I am going to roll him out there and hope that the new Packers play-caller realizes his talent and feeds him the rock in this spot.

Ingram is a leverage play for me. If the numbers are telling me Kamara is 25% owned and Ingram will be 5-8% owned, then I want some exposure to the lower owned guy. Ingram’s game log looks ugly the last two weeks, but we know that Sean Payton has a tendency to feed the hot hand and Ingram has 100-yards, 2-TD upside this week against the Bucs, especially if the Saints get up early and he gets a favorable game script here.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Wide Receivers

Chalk: Chris Godwin, DeVante Adams, Keenan Allen

Pivots: Michael Thomas (8600), Zay Jones (5100)

Maybe people have forgotten what Michael Thomas did to the Bucs in week one, so I will remind you. He only caught 16 of 17 targets for 180 yards and a TD. Now, I’m well aware that the Saints were trailing that game, which caused them to have to throw a lot and play catch up, but it”s certainly within the range of outcomes that the Saints could find themselves in the same position this week as Tampa’s offense has looked better in recent weeks. Thomas has caught 9 of 14 targets the last two weeks.  I want some pieces of the best offense in football against one of the worst defenses in the league and I want the lower-owned pieces with massive upside like Ingram and Thomas.

Zay Jones caught two TDs from Josh Allen last week and he’s the most logical stacking mate if you want to roll out the Buffalo stack. Despite only catching four passes, he was targeted 9 times and he had a solid 8 catches for 93 yards and a score against the Jets in their first meeting a few weeks ago. If the chalk build is paying down at RB and up at WR, then I’m going to do the opposite in some GPP lineups.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Tight Ends

Chalk: Travis Kelce, Eric Ebron

I’m playing Kelce, regardless of how chalky he is. But that doesn’t mean I don’t have interest in some other tight ends, too.

Pivots: Zach Ertz (7400), David Njoku (5300)

Zach Ertz is the “other expensive tight end” that is projected at half of Kelce’s ownership. Ertz has been a target monster all year-long as his QB, Carson Wentz, continues to look for him week after week. His biggest game this season came against these Dallas Cowboys last month when he caught 14 of 16 targets for 145 yards and two scores.  With the Cowboys defense clamping down on the run, I think the Eagles will have to air it out this week plenty. Their weakness in the passing game has been the tight end, as the Cowboys are 19th in the league in points allowed to TE’s this season.

Njoku made our list last week and didn’t do much, catching only 3 of 6 targets for 8 yards. But he’s in another great spot here this week as the Panthers’ defense is 30th in the NFL against the tight end position.  I expect Baker Mayfield to have to throw it plenty in this game and I think he bounces back this week and finds his young, athletic tight end for a TD in this game.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Defense

Chalk: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers

The Bills and Chargers are facing weak offenses this week and are projected for double-digit ownership, but neither team has the upside of this Denver unit in my opinion.

Pivot: Denver (4800)

Denver is the highest priced defense on FanDuel this week and while I usually try to pay down at defense in tournaments when I can, I think there’s more than enough value at every position to save you enough cap to spend up on the Denver defense.

This Denver unit is playing arguably some of the best defense in the NFL right now. They held the powerful Chargers and Steelers offenses to a combined 39 points in back to back weeks before dominating the Bengals last week to the tune of 4 sacks and 3 takeaways. They are on the road here, but playing against a reeling Niners team that is without its starting running back and had a rookie QB throw the ball 48 times last week.

I’m considering going all-in on this Denver defense in tournaments as I think they’re in a great spot to dominate again this week.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Value Plays

Chalk: Jaylen Samuels, Jeffrey Wilson

I’m on board with using Samuels in cash this week and I understand why Wilson is so appealing with Matt Breida being ruled out.  But remember these are two totally unproven players who are likely going to play their career high in snaps this week.

Pivot: Justin Jackson (4600), DeSean Hamilton (4500)

I watched Justin Jackson gash the Steelers in the second half last week. He looked dynamic and explosive in his eight carries and averaged 8 yards per tote last week and the week before against the Cardinals. With Melvin Gordon out, this game sets up perfectly for Jackson as the Chargers are heavy home favorites against the worst defense in the league. Austin Ekeler is not the type of back that you pound when you have the lead, and I think Jackson pushes for 12-15 touches this week and finds the end zone.

I’m a sucker for Penn State players, and I watched a lot of DeSean Hamilton’s games for my alma mater over the last several seasons. He’s a really great route-runner with good hands and he’s going to have his chance to show what he can do this week as Emmanuel Sanders is likely done for the season. The Broncos will have Courtland Sutton line up on the outside and he should draw the Niners’ best cornerback, Richard Sherman for a good chunk of the game. Meanwhile, Hamilton will line up in the slot and steps into the position that Case Keenum loves to target the most. Why not spend 4500 on a dynamic rookie WR instead of one of the cheap running backs this week?

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Sample Lineup and Overview

I want to stress that you don’t need to have a low-owned player in every roster spot. Some of the names I mentioned as chalk, I will be playing alongside some of the pivots that I wrote up. It’s all about leveraging the chalk on any given week and finding the right balance of chalk and contrarian plays.

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Stacking is important in any DFS sport, but especially in NFL DFS. I try to build my QB-WR stack first in many cases and then fill in around it.  If you’re good, you can build in multiple mini-stacks into the same lineup so that you have several different plays that are highly correlated. This week’s sample lineup is built around the Allen-Jones stack but also has some correlation with Godwin-Thomas from the same game.

I’m going to have a number of different lineups this week and the majority of them will be “stars and scrubs” style roster construction. The amount of value out there this week is just too good to ignore and I think it’s definitely worth taking some chances with these cheap players to jam in as many high-end plays as possible.

Remember that the sample lineup is purely for illustrative purposes and it’s not necessarily a plug-and-play lineup. I just like showing how the builds come together to give you an idea of how to start building yours.

QB: Josh Allen (7400)

RB: Aaron Jones (7500)

RB: Justin Jackson (4600)

WR: Michael Thomas (8300)

WR: Chris Godwin (5600)

WR: Zay Jones (5100)

TE: Travis Kelce (8000)

FLEX: Ezekiel Elliot (8800)

DEF: Denver (4800)

That’s all I got guys, I hope this article helps you build some GPP winners this weekend. As always, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with questions and comments and continue to look for in-depth NBA and NFL analysis from me and the rest of the FantasyCPR team