Stick’s Picks – FantasyDraft Week 14 NFL DFS GPP Targets
Stick’s Picks – FantasyDraft Week 14 NFL DFS GPP Targets (Main Slate)
When you’re hot, you’re hot! Hopefully everyone crushed it in their GPP’s in Week 13 with their Phil Rivers/Keenan Allen/Antonio Brown mini-stacks (with some sprinkles of Travis Kelce). It was a great payday on FantasyDraft and we’ll look to follow suit again in our Week 14 NFL DFS contests.
Similar to Week 13, we have a TON of low-priced running backs that will be insanely chalky this Sunday.
We wanted to limit exposure to Spencer Ware chalk-week last Sunday, and we’re going to do the same thing again this week with Jeff Wilson, Jaylen Samuels, and Justin Jackson. I’d say Samuels and Wilson are perfect players for your cash game lineups (following the chalk in cash is not nearly as volatile as it can be in GPP’s).
That being said, I’d prefer to just choose one or two of them and load up on guys like McCaffrey, Zeke, Gurley, and Barkley in your cash lineups. But, enough about cash games, let’s start prepping for our tournaments.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @sticks022 and @FantasyCPR for more fantasy football information. Thank you for reading and best of luck this week!
Week 14 NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers ($12,500)
I’ve written about him the past couple of weeks and he has done nothing but disappoint. Vegas continues to have faith in the Packers’ offense in Week 14, as they head into this matchup against the Falcons with a 27.5 implied team total.
McCarthy was fired, and it sounds like Aaron Rodgers is going to have the freedom to call most of the plays on Sunday. Look for him to make a statement in this game.
Deshaun Watson ($11,500)
Love Watson this week for both GPP and Cash Games. He is my #1 QB play on the board in regards to expected fantasy performance and price tag. He will be the QB in 70% of my GPP lineups.
Watson’s best performance of the season came against this Indianapolis defense in Week 4 and I’m very confident he will not disappoint in this shootout at home.
*Mini-stack: Watson-Hopkins-Ebron
Honorable Mention:
Patrick Mahomes ($13,500) – low-owned; people will avoid him due to matchup with Baltimore
Ben Roethlisberger ($12,700) – I’m scared this will be a blowout, but Ben is good for 22+ points
Jameis Winston ($11,600) – Great game-script; I think he’s a terrible QB, but he’s in a great spot
Andrew Luck ($11,100) – I love Watson, so why not fire up Andy Luck as well in a few lineups?
Baker Mayfield ($10,900) – low-owned, I have him projected for 330 yards and 2+ touchdowns
** SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH CAM NEWTON’S SHOULDER. DO NOT PLAY HIM THIS WEEK **
Week 14 NFL DFS GPP Running Backs:
As you’ll notice below, most of my plays are the higher-priced backs. Pay up at RB in your GPP’s this week!
Todd Gurley ($17,300)
Just play him. I think this is an excellent week to roster Gurley at reasonable ownership. A lot of DFS folks will shy away from Gurley due to fear in the matchup against the Bears’ defense. His usage is just too much to ignore, and the Bears can be beat by pass-catching running backs.
Christian McCaffrey ($17,200)
Absolute chalk this week, but I’ll get plenty of shares of CMC. As I noted earlier, Cam is injured and cannot move the ball via the deep pass. Plenty of dump-offs to McCaffrey, which is perfect for the full-point PPR setup on FantasyDraft.
Ezekiel Elliott ($16,200)
Zeke’s best fantasy performance of the year came against this Eagles’ defense in Week 10, and he’s averaged 32.4 FantasyDraft points per week over the past four weeks. Need I say more?
Aaron Jones ($13,900)
With McCarthy gone, we can only hope this means the Packers feature Aaron Jones again. Assuming they do, Jones should be heavily involved in the passing attack which is exactly what we want our RB’s to do when they’re playing the Falcons.
Phillip Lindsay ($12,900)
Ride the hot hand. He’s a nice pivot down in price and will be heavily used again in this game against the 49ers. If for some reason it gets out of hand, don’t be surprised if we see a decent amount of snaps for Royce Freeman.
*TeamRankings.com shows the current spread at only 3.5 points in favor of Denver, so this should be a Lindsay game.
Tarik Cohen ($11,100)
His price doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. How can he be so low? Lock him in with your Gurley lineups.
Honorable Mention:
Saquon Barkley ($16,700)
Alvin Kamara ($14,100)
Nick Chubb ($12,600)
Adrian Peterson ($9,500)
Gus Edwards ($9,300)
Kenyan Drake ($8,500)
Week 14 NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers:
Davante Adams ($16,200)
My WR1 on the week – lock him in with or without Rodgers.
Keenan Allen ($15,300)
You saw what Keenan can accomplish last week when he is the #1 focus on the Chargers’ offense. Melvin Gordon is out again this week, so fire up Keenan. There is blowout concern in this game, but Keenan should be able to hit value regardless of the score in this one.
Tyreek Hill ($15,200)
No one is going to play Tyreek this week after a letdown performance against the Raiders in Week 13. He was inches away from two huge plays… I’m fine with going back to Tyreek this week – especially with low-ownership against a great defense.
DeAndre Hopkins ($14,600)
I was extremely torn on who would be my WR1 this week (between Adams and Hopkins). Let’s call Davante Adams 1A, and Hopkins 1B. I’ll have a ton of exposure to Hopkins as I’ll be pairing him with Deshaun Watson in a handful of lineups.
T.Y. Hilton ($12,000)
If I like a lot of Texans, I need to roster a few Colts’ players as well for that stack in a shootout of a game. Hilton has great career numbers against the Texans, so I’ll get Hilton in one or two lineups.
*Keep an eye on his injury status
Josh Gordon ($11,300)
No Xavien Howard this week for the Dolphins should lead to a big game for Josh Gordon. He will score a touchdown with at least 85 yards receiving (I’m betting on more).
Chris Godwin ($10,300)
I probably do not have enough exposure to this Saints/Bucs game, but I’ll be going with Chris Godwin on the Bucs’ side of the ball in the lineups that I do play this game.
Randall Cobb ($8,900)
It looked like Randall Cobb was finally healthy last week and he is in an excellent spot to get things going for once this season in Week 14. I don’t love the play, but if you’re paying up for RBs, he is a nice salary-saver type of player who should get at least 10 points.
Honorable Mention:
Michael Thomas ($16,300)
Antonio Brown ($16,100)
Julio Jones ($14,900)
Brandin Cooks ($13,400)
Amari Cooper ($12,300)
Adam Humphries ($9,700)
Golden Tate ($9,400)
Courtland Sutton ($8,500)
Mike Williams ($7,700)
Week 14 NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends:
Zach Ertz ($13,200)
Ertz is the highest priced tight-end on the slate and for good reason. He is averaging an astounding 19.9 FantasyDraft points per game (only trailing Travis Kelce). He went off against this Dallas defense in Week 10 and should be primed up to have a big game again in Week 14.
No chance he puts up 40+ points again like he did in Week 10, but if you want to pay up at tight-end, Ertz is your guy.
Travis Kelce ($12,600)
Holy Kelce last week. If you want to go back to him this week, I think you’re making an excellent choice. I prefer Ertz by a small margin if you’re looking to pay up at tight-end, but Kelce should have the best matchup on the field for the Chiefs’ pass catchers.
Eric Ebron ($10,600)
I don’t love his price, but I love targeting this Indy/Houston game. Ebron is an absolute target-hog when Doyle and Allie-Cox are out of the lineup, so fire up Ebron with confidence this week against a team that really struggles in coverage with the tight-end.
Rob Gronkowski ($9,900)
Gronk is cheaper than Ebron…LOL. It’s been a down year for Gronk without a doubt, but his splits against the Miami Dolphins are hard to ignore. I’ll take a shot on Gronk in a few lineups.
Trey Burton ($9,000)
No one is going to play Burton this week. This Bears/Rams game is going to offer DFS players a lot of potential points, and now that Trubisky is back, Burton should be heavily involved. He is my favorite tight-end play on the board in terms of value.
I think my main builds will have a Gurley-Cohen-Burton, mini-stack.
Matt LaCosse ($5,300)
A lot of people played him last week and he put up a big ole’ zero. This is a great week to get LaCosse at incredibly low-ownership in what should be a good spot now that Emmanuel Sanders is out for the season.
Honorable Mention:
George Kittle ($10,100)
Jared Cook ($9,700)
David Njoku ($7,200)
Cameron Brate ($6,500)
Week 14 NFL DFS GPP DST:
I never spend much time discussing fantasy defenses because there are just so many different ways to go and it’s quite difficult to handicap their performances. I’ll simply list the teams I’ll have some shares of below.
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If you’re in between a few of them, check out the Vegas totals and choose the team who is playing in the lower scoring game. When in doubt, let Vegas do the work for you.
Buffalo Bills ($6,000)
Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100)
Arizona Cardinals ($5,100)
Cleveland Browns ($4,700)
Washington Redskins ($4,500)
Week 14 NFL DFS GPP Sample Lineup:
QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: Todd Gurley
RB: Ezekiel Elliot
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Mike Williams
TE: Trey Burton
FLEX: Tarik Cohen
FLEX: Jeff Wilson Jr.
DST: Arizona Cardinals
**Christmas Special – Here is my FantasyDraft Cash Game Lineup**
QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Ezekiel Elliot
WR: Courtland Sutton
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
TE: Eric Ebron
FLEX: Jaylen Samuels
FLEX: Jeff Wilson Jr.
DST: Arizona Cardinals
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