DraftKings NBA Picks December 10: Embiid is indeed the best play

NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 17: Kevin Knox #20 of the New York Knicks shoots the ball against the Atlanta Hawks at Madison Square Garden on October 17, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks December 10: Embiid is indeed the best play

The unbalanced NBA slates leave us with a big DraftKings NBA slate on Monday. There are 11 games tonight, and plenty of stars to go with it. The big question that we all have tonight is will Embiid get to face the Pistons this time? This whole game could be huge. Where else should we build? Let’s sort through this.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Russell Westbrook ($11,000): Westbrook has back to back 70+ DraftKings point games, thereby solidifying his place among the elite DFS plays. He is looking like he did last year, racking up triple doubles with reckless abandon. Utah will present a little better competition than Brooklyn or Chicago, but this whole team is back to running through Westbrook again. He’s still going to at least hit value in this game.

Kyrie Irving ($8,900): Kyrie should be a really good plan B here. Irving picked up 58.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pelicans, which as you may expect, was a frenetic game. This one should be the same regardless of the status of Davis. Point guards usually thrive in situations like this. Irving should be no different.

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley ($8,100): The Nuggets have given up some big stats to point guards recently. Conley himself struggled against them earlier this year, but Harris was also healthy then. Does that really make that much of a difference? I’m more inclined to follow Denver’s recent struggles against the point and Conley’s recent run of solid outings.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,600): The price is so high that it’s much harder for Fox to hit value now. That said, the Bulls have been ravaged by point guards lately. Fox himself nearly dropped 60 on Cleveland the other night. This will be a popular GPP pick because of the upside and the Bulls’ struggles defensively, but I wouldn’t play Fox in cash games. He only has more than 5x value four times in the last ten games.

Darren Collison ($6,900): John Wall doesn’t play good defense even when he is feeling good, so the fact that he may still be under the weather has me wanting to attack him with Collison at this price. Collison is purely a matchup play as well, but this could be one of the best ones of the night. If Wall sits, I like this a little less, but most indicators are that he will play tonight.

Dark Horses:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5,000): The rookie has seen his share of ups and downs this year. One of those ups was in the first matchup against Phoenix. SGA put up 33.75 DraftKings points in 28 minutes in that game. There is a chance that the Clippers could run him more than most of the starters because the experience he gets, even against a G-League team like the Suns, can only help his development.

Alec Burks ($4,700): Burks’ price went up $800, and he is still way too cheap. He has started the last two games for the Cavs and put up 78.5 DraftKings points. Unlike the Suns and Knicks, Cleveland still appears to have pride. They at least try to win games. I don’t see the Cavs benching Burks anytime soon no matter what the status of Hood. This is his job now. Enjoy this low price while it lasts!

Monte Morris ($3,600): With Harris and Barton out and Murray having shin issues, Morris has been forced into more minutes. This has gone very well for the Nuggets. With the ineffectiveness of Craig and Malik Beasley, the Nuggets could even let Morris run the point and move Murray to the two. I don’t care for the matchup, but Morris has put up 54.25 DraftKings points in 54 minutes over the last two games. If the Denver backcourt is beat up again, I love the value on Morris.

My pick: Burks(PG), Okobo(G); Collison(PG), Burks(G)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 03: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards reacts after making a basket during the fourth quarter of the game against New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on December 03, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,400): Keep an eye on the status off Wall here. Beal has racked up 151 DraftKings points over the last three games. Wall missed two of those games, and scored just one point in a game in which he shouldn’t have played on Saturday. If Wall is out, lock in Beal. He is by far the best at the position when Wall is sidelined.

Zach LaVine ($7,400): Predictably, LaVine struggled against Boston. He is purely a matchup based play at this point since the Bulls have some playmakers emerging or coming back from injury. LaVine doesn’t have to shoot 20 times a game anymore. However, the Kings’ defense against shooting guards has been bad for the last five years. This is always a good spot to play a good shooter.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($6,700): The biggest thing to note from last night was MIddleton’s 34 minutes against Toronto. He put up a modest 29.25 DraftKings points in that one. The thing I had an eye on was the minutes though. If Middleton plays 34 against Cleveland, he could put up some big numbers in this one.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,300): Both Hield and Bogdanovic are priced up against the Bulls, and they probably should be. As has become the norm, both Hield and Bogdanovic play around 32 minutes per game. Play Bogdanovic if you want a sure 28-35 DraftKings points. Play Hield if you are chasing upside, but he is not nearly as consistent.

Malcolm Brogdon ($6,200): Brogdon hit a couple of big shots down the stretch for the Bucks in the win over Toronto last night. This is nothing new for Brogdon. He is a clutch shooter and great defender, and is almost never below 4.5x value. I like Brogdon more in cash games, but Cleveland’s guard defense has been among the worst in the league even before they started gutting the unit. This is a big spot for Brogdon here.

Dark Horses:

Lou Williams ($5,500): The only downside I see to Williams tonight is that they are playing the Suns. LouWill is such a key part of the rotation that he wont see extended run when this game gets out of hand. He’s a streaky shooter, so at this point we are just playing him and hoping he gets hot before he has to rest. Williams picked up 32.5 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes against the Suns earlier this year. That makes him a strong value play tonight.

J.J. Redick ($5,500): Redick is pretty much the anti LouWill. Redick starts, and unlike Williams, is one of the most consistent long range shooters in the league. Like anyone, Redick can have an off night, but almost every other night he hits a minimum of 28 DraftKings points. Redick is a cash game darling because of the consistency, but he has enough upside for GPP’s as well considering he has averaged 33.8 DraftKings points in three games against Detroit so far this year.

DeAndre Melton ($4,600): You have to love DraftKings. Melton picked up his first start this season as the point guard. So what does DraftKings do? They move his eligibility from PG to SG. Makes perfect sense. At any rate, Okobo was much better off the bench, and Melton put up another solid stat line. Expect this rotation to continue, and be just as volatile from a production standpoint, as hit has been over the duration of Booker’s hamstring injury. These are still good value plays, but there is risk involved. At this point, I may just roll with Okobo at $1,000 less because of his solid play off the bench.

My pick: N/A; Brogdon(SG)

PORTLAND, OR – OCTOBER 18: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers dunks against the Portland Trail Blazers in the first quarter of their game at Moda Center on October 18, 2018 in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($10,700): Forget what the stats say. LeBron torched the Heat for 73.5 DraftKings points in his return to Miami. Is it establishing some kind of dominance over Wade? Whatever the case is, LeBron steps up huge in games like this. Forget paying for Giannis in the second night of a back to back. Not when you have LeBron taking on his former team.

Kevin Durant ($10,100): If those of you in the Bay Area have felt the water level rise, don’t be alarmed. It’s not global warming. It’s just Kevin Durant drooling over this matchup. The Timberwolves have allowed the most fantasy points to small forwards this year. Durant putup 56.75 against them in the first meeting. If you don’t think LeBron goes off on the Heat again, Durant is a great pivot. If Covington plays and is guarding KD I don’t like this as much, but it’s still a good spot for Durant.

Ben Simmons ($8,500): The stats on Simmons are a little skewed since Embiid rested in this matchup on Friday. Simmons racked up 52 DraftKings points in that one. His stats were more subdued in the first meeting against Detroit, but Simmons still hit value in that one with Embiid on the floor. Butler is the one that suffers when Embiid plays.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Kuzma ($7,200): Kuzma did not have a good game against the Heat in the first matchup. While the roles have changed quite a bit since that game, Kuzma’s streak of five straight games with more than 40 DraftKings points is in jeopardy if LeBron takes over the game. That would be my only reason to fade Kuzma tonight.

Danilo Gallinari ($6,800): I don’t know how much exposure I want to this since this is going to be a blowout, but Gallinari might be the one Clipper I lock in. He had a ridiculous 55.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. A lot of that was a hot shooting night, but there really is no reason that can’t happen again.

Andrew Wiggins ($5,900): Wiggins put up 34.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Warriors, and has put up 76 DraftKings points over the last two games. If Wiggins could establish any kind of consistency, he would be a great DFS pick. For now, we just have to settle for playing him on his hot streaks. If Covington is out or limited again, Wiggins is a lock. Even if Covington plays, Wiggins is a solid play since Draymond will be back to lock down KAT.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,700): Bojan has a tougher matchup, but his consistency is about as good as Bogdan’s and he comes at a little bit of a discount tonight. Bojan has been a reliable scorer with Oladipo out, making him one of the better value plays in this price range because of the higher floor.

Dark Horses:

Josh Jackson ($5,300): Warren will play, but he will also be on a minutes limit. It wont matter that much. The Suns haven’t been within 14 points of a team since November 27th. Warren will help, but this is also going to be a situation where the Suns are run out of the building again. Even in these blowouts, Jackson has kept mostly constant minutes. His production should be pretty safe, but who really knows what the upside is.

Jaylen Brown ($5,000): Brown tore up the Bulls for 38.75 DraftKings points on Saturday and has a similarly savory matchup tonight. Brown has three straight games of at least 5x value stretching back to before his injury. He is pretty much locked into value tonight in an up tempo game against the Pelicans.

Terrence Ross ($4,800): The minutes were there again for Ross on Friday, but Indiana held him to very litter peripheral stats. Ross is mostly a scorer, but he does usually pick up a handful of assists and rebounds as well. He should be back to his customary 26-32 DraftKings points tonight against Dallas, making Ross a strong value play for any kind of lineup.

My pick: Ross(SG); N/A

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 07: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons reacts to a second half play while playing the Philadelphia 76ers at Little Caesars Arena on December 07, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. Philadelphia won the game 117-111. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Anthony Davis ($10,900): Davis torched Boston for 65.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting, so if he plays, Davis remains one of the most constant plays you can buy at any price. I like that his price is down a little playing Boston. Davis was able to return to last night’s game, and still managed 32.75 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. This could be a chance to have Davis at lower ownership here. There is plenty to chase people off of him.

Blake Griffin ($9,500): Blake had 54.5 DraftKings points against Philly on Friday, and that was far and away his lowest total against them this season. He’s going to have another huge game with Embiid back in the fold for Philly tonight. Both of these frontcourts are going to be hotbeds for DFS gold.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($7,300): This Washington frontcourt is nothing special, and Sabonis is farther removed from his illness. He still put up 26 DraftKings points in 24 minutes against the Kings on Saturday. Expect him to be at least at that value point tonight.

Draymond Green ($7,000): The Warriors have already said that Draymond wont be on a minutes limit here. That’s good news for DFS purposes. Green racked up 42.75 DraftKings points against Minnesota in the first meeting. Covington is a good defender, but Draymond doesn’t rely on scoring at all really. This could be a big game for Green relative to his price.

Jayson Tatum ($6,900): Tatum put up 38.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting against New Orleans, and that was before his recent hot streak. The only thing that has slowed Tatum recently is three blowout wins in the last four games. All that means is that Tatum will be well rested against this big, but porous, New Orleans front.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,300): Markkanen’s disappointing game against Boston has served to keep his price down. That means Markkanen is a huge bargain tonight against the Kings. Markkanen had back to back games of more than 40 DraftKings points before playing just 18 minutes in the blowout loss to Boston. Expect Markkanen to bounce back big time here.

Dark Horses:

Juancho Hernangomez ($4,700): There is value all over the Denver lineup right now, and Juancho is one of the few accomplished scorers out there. Denver is going to ride him a lot, just like the 40 minutes they did on Saturday. Memphis is a tough matchup, but Juancho is way too cheap if he is playing that many minutes.

Marvin Bagley ($4,700): Bagley was a non factor against the Pacers, but he has a great matchup against the Bulls tonight. Something to keep an eye on is the status of Bobby Portis. If Portis is in this game, I’m moving off of Bagley. This is a massive slate. There are a lot of ways to go here.

James Johnson ($4,100): Miami normally has a deep rotation, but with Bam ineffective and Whiteside still out, Johnson exploded for 36.5 DraftKings points on Saturday. This isn’t a fluke. Johnson averaged in the 30’s last year, so he is capable of this if the Heat are going to give him minutes. Keep an eye on the starting lineups for the Heat and for any news in the frontcourt. If it sounds like someone is out or limited, Johnson is a superb value play.

Trey Lyles ($3,700): Lyles started with Millsap out, and had a solid 28.5 DraftKings points against the Hawks. We actually have a bit of a barometer here against Memphis. Denver played Lyles 28 minutes in the first meeting and he racked up 31.75 DraftKings points, his best output of the season. Lyles is a very strong value play once again.

My pick: Tatum(SF), Lyles(F), Markkanen(UTIL); Tatum(PF), Hernangomez(SF), Lyles(F)

MIAMI, FL – OCTOBER 20: A detail of Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat shoes prior to the game between the Miami Heat and the Charlotte Hornets at American Airlines Arena on October 20, 2018 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,800): Embiid at this price is like shoplifting. He has 130 DraftKings points in two games against the Pistons this year. Friday I was primed to ride Embiid and Blake. That was foiled by Blake sitting. Tonight I’m building around that core at least once.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,600): The knock on Vucevic is that he hasn’t been able to dominate consistently. Well, he has seven straight games with more than 38 DraftKings points. Six of those have been in the 40’s and five have been over 5x value for this price. This is a good matchup against Dallas. If you are looking to avoid the high ownership on Embiid, it may be worth it to move down. After all, Vucevic has averaged a double-double in 11 career matchups with DeAndre Jordan.

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Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($7,100): Randle has at least 46 DraftKings points in four straight games. Mirotic only missed two of those games. Randle is destroying everyone right now. Can Boston really hold him to 35 DraftKings points? I seriously have my doubts at this point. This run has included games against Memphis, Detroit, Dallas, and the Clippers. All four are in the top half of frontcourt defense.

Myles Turner ($7,000): We all saw what Tristan Thompson did to Washington over the weekend. Turner has had a couple of huge duds over the last six games, but the other four have been over 5x value. Which Turner shows up tonight?

Montrezl Harrell ($6,700): Harrell is going to dominate the Suns when he is in there. The only question is whether Harrell will see enough minutes in this blowout.

Dark Horses:

Bam Adebayo ($5,800): I’m pretty sure Bam was burned in effigy at halftime on Saturday considering he had as many DraftKings points as I did in the first half. He proceeded to score 34 in the second half alone. Bam is still a very strong value pick, especially against a pretty weak Lakers front.

Kelly Olynyk ($5,300): Olynyk has five straight games of more than 5x value. Only three of those have come with Whiteside out. Whiteside is still back in Miami, so Olynyk is going to get plenty of run once again. At this point you can play both him and Bam!

Richaun Holmes ($4,000): Holmes put up 28.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Clippers while still playing less than 20 minutes. Holmes is a per minute monster, but he rarely gets a lot of minutes. Actually, proof is that he plays better off the bench. Still, for the price Holmes is a solid value play.

My pick: Embiid(C); Embiid(C), Turner(UTIL)

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