FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Monday, 12/10 – Guess who’s back?

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Happy Monday, NBA DFS players, and welcome back to the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS even more than I love watching the Patriots lose on the last play of the game (sorry, Pats fans). Full disclosure, I’m a Steelers fan and they lost, too, so misery loves company.

All jokes aside, thanks for joining me for the FanDuel NBA Breakdown again today.  I am getting some really great feedback from readers and trying to continue to evolve the Breakdown to best help you all need to build winning lineups on FanDuel.  Today I’m introducing my “core plays” in addition to the sample lineup at the end of the article. Knowing that people are reading every day is what keeps me writing this column on a daily basis and going into as much detail about each slate as I possibly can.

As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Tonight we have a full 11-game slate, so there will no shortage of solid plays and it should be pretty easy to make lineups that you’re going to like. I’ll be going position by position today as I usually do on any slate bigger than 3-4 games.

I’m also going to keep my “value plays” section where I spotlight players under 5k that we can use to help fit in our favorite studs.  And of course, I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  As the season goes along, we run into more and more injury and rest situations that can entirely change the slate so my best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Let’s take a look at what this slate has in store for us tonight!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 11 Game Slate

Injury Update

***John Wall is questionable for the Wizards tonight. He returned on Saturday after a one-game absence but played poorly and was likely trying to play through his injury.

***Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets tonight. He played through a shin injury Saturday but didn’t play well. I’m avoiding him even if he does suit up.

***Kris Dunn is eyeing a return to the court soon, but there’s been no word on his status for tonight, yet.  Bobby Portis is supposed to return any day now, too. If you needed any more reasons not to play Bulls players then consider the fact that the rotation is about to get a lot murkier when these two guys come back.

***Rajon Rondo, Reggie Bullock, Devin Booker, Victor Oladipo, Will Barton, Gary Harris, Brandon Ingram, Paul Milsap, and Hassan Whiteside all remain out.

***Al Horford and Aaron Baynes are both questionable for the Celtics. If either one of them or both miss, then the Celtics would be pretty thin up front again.

***Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson are questionable for the Heat tonight. Richardson missed Saturday’s game, while Johnson was forced to leave after only 6 minutes.

***Rodney Hood is questionable for the Cavs and if he misses tonight’s game then they will be really short-handed again after trading George Hill to the Bucks over the weekend.

***Dennis Smith Jr. is doubtful tonight for the Mavericks, which could put J.J. Barea and Jalen Brunson in play.

Headlines

LeBron hosts his former team, the Miami Heat

The Heat travel to L.A. to take on the Lakers in a game that should be interesting from a matchup perspective and carries plenty of narrative appeal, too.

Sixers travel to Detroit for a rematch of Friday’s game

Joel Embiid should suit up for the Sixers tonight after resting on Friday. The Sixers came back after trailing most of the game to beat the Pistons 117-111 behind a big game from Jimmy Butler on Friday night. This will be the fourth time these teams have played already this season.

Boston looks to win seventh in a row, face a tough test with Pelicans

The Celtics are red-hot and are a team I’m going to be looking to target in DFS against the Pelicans and their porous defense tonight. Boston handled the Pelicans 124-107 two weeks ago.

Vegas Baby

The game with the highest point total tonight is New Orleans at Boston (230).

The game that projects to be the closest is Memphis at Denver (-1.5) which also happens to have the lowest total (198).

Sacramento @ Chicago has the third highest total and only a 2.5 spread.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Kyrie Irving (8500)

Thanks to a series of blowouts, Kyrie’s output has been limited lately as he’s been between 24 and 40 FD points in his last 4 games. The best part about that is that his price has dipped down to 8500 after being up at 9k or more and now it’s time to pounce.

When these teams last met two weeks ago, Irving had a stellar 26-5-10 game with 5 steals that was good for 56 FD points in only 31 minutes. The Pelicans are going to pace up Boston here tonight and Kyrie loves these types of games that get up and down. I think in a tremendous spot here at home against a bad defense and if Al Horford does happen to miss then that would only mean more shots and assists for “Uncle Drew.”

Collin Sexton (5300)

If you haven’t had a chance to watch this young kid play, he’s beginning to show why he was a lottery pick. He’s scoring with ease, with 8 games over 20 actual points now this season. He’s coming off his best game of the year in which he scored 29 points to go with 6 assists and 2 steals in 40 minutes against the Wizards.

40 minutes was his second highest total minutes played this year and he should get all the minutes he can handle going forward now that the Cavs have dealt veteran point guard, George Hill, to the Bucks. Cleveland may be missing guard Rodney Hood tonight, too, which would mean more shots for their talented young point guard. He’ll be asked to carry the load offensively tonight against the Bucks and even if the Cavs get blown out, he still should see his full complement of minutes. I’m in love with him tonight at this price and I’m making him a core play.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

Klay Thompson (6800)

I have to tell you that I almost never recommend Klay Thompson or play him in any of my lineups. So when you see his name show up in this article, then you have to know that I feel really strongly about his price and matchup tonight.  When Steph Curry returned, I left Klay for dead, thinking he would go back to his pedestrian production of earlier in the season. But he has been anything but pedestrian, with over 38 FD points per game in the four games since Steph came back.

With his price back under 7k and a matchup against Andrew Wiggins, I’m willing to roll the dice on Klay tonight. Robert Covington will look to lock down Kevin Durant, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Warriors fed Klay early in this game and we all know what he can do if he gets hot.

Jaylen Brown (5100)

Brown has looked great in his first two games back from injury, scoring 25 and 38 FD points. He’s been moved to the second unit, while Marcus Smart has continued to start. This gives the Celtics another solid defender with their first group in Smart and has allowed Brown to be more aggressive on offense with the second unit. Hopefully, Coach Stevens sticks with this arrangement because Brown is really only appealing to me if he continues to be deployed in this role. His numbers did come in some extended run and mop up minutes in two blowouts, but I still think he has plenty of upside here at this cheap tag to go 6x even in 25 minutes.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

LeBron James (11100)

It’s LeBron’s world and we are all just living in it. After a rocky start, the King has led his new team to a 16-10 record by winning 5 of their last 6 games. He’s doing what he always does, putting the team on his back and putting up some big numbers in the process. Without Rondo and Brandon Ingram tonight I expect we see him continue to be a one-man show for the Lakers.

His best game of the season came against the Heat back on November 18th, when he dropped 51 real-life points on his former team.  I don’t like playing narratives, but it certainly feels like LeBron would love to put up another crooked number against his old squad at home in front of the Laker fans. He’s a showman.

Paul George (8800)

I’m going to continue to play Paul George when he’s under 9k. He showed last week that he still has slate-breaking potential even with Russell Westbrook in the lineup when he scored 47 points with 15 boards on his way to 72 FD points.

The Jazz don’t have anyone who can guard a wing that’s as versatile as George. They can put Donovan Mitchell or Ricky Rubio on Westbrook and Rudy Gobert can stifle Steven Adams in the paint, but PG13 is a nightmare matchup for this Utah squad that is coming off a tough loss to the Spurs last night. George makes for a nice pivot down from LeBron and off his own teammate Westy and I am sure he can be rostered at 10% or lower ownership.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Blake Griffin (9100)

Blake has been absolutely money this year against the Sixers. He had his worst game against them on Friday “only” scoring 31 points to go with 12 rebounds and 6 assists. In 3 games this season, he’s averaging 39 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists – just take a second to let that soak in.

With Embiid back in the lineup for Philly tonight, we should see Detroit lean on Griffin again as he has a much easier matchup than Andre Drummond. “Point Blake” should be in full effect and the Sixers have no answer for Griffin defensively as they have to try to put Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, or Amir Johnson on him. If 50 FD points is the floor in this matchup, I’ll take a lot of Griffin tonight.

Draymond Green (6700)

He’s back!  After missing 11 games, Draymond is set to return tonight against the T-Wolves. His coach said he won’t have a minutes restriction and he’s priced lower than we’ve seen him all season. I’ll be loading up on Dray tonight as he is one of the best stat stuffers in the league. He’s averaged 31 FD points this season while averaging less than 7 actual points per game – that’s just crazy.

Green is always among the league leaders in defensive stats and is averaging 2.5 blocks/steals so far this year. He was one point and one rebound away from a triple-double in the Warriors first meeting with Minnesota as he had a nifty 9-9-11 line with 4 combined steals/blocks. He’s a steal at this price (pun intended).

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Joel Embiid (10400)

I was so excited to use Embiid on Friday and had already written him up when we got the news that he was going to be rested.  Embiid is too cheap compared to the other studs on the slate and he has absolutely dominated Andre Drummond in this matchup during his career. He’s averaged 30-11 against Drum in 5 career games and this season he’s already put up 36-14-4 in two games against Drum and this Pistons team.

I expect him to play tonight and play well. This is less about the narrative that he’s in Drummond’s head and more about the skill set that he brings to the court.  He is extremely tough for Drummond to cover due to his athleticism and shooting range.  He’s my favorite play on the slate and he’s going to be a part of my core.

Julius Randle (8400)

Randle is playing at an elite level right now. He’s playing so well that he has forced his way into the starting lineup and made it so his coach had to get him on the court for more minutes. He’s played 35 minutes over his last four games and has averaged almost 50 FD points in those contests He’s scoring, rebounding and distributing the ball right now and he’s become the motor that is driving this Pelicans team.

When Randle is on the floor with Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis, he actually has a higher usage rate (33% to 31%) than Davis and has been more productive (1.6 to 1.4 FPPM). He should be able to dominate against the Celtics interior, which is their weak spot defensively. I see no reason why he won’t go for 6x value again tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

I wanted to add this section to the breakdown so I could elaborate on some of my favorite values for each slate. For our purposes, I am going to consider a player a “value play” if they are 5000 or less. There are some really solid values here in this range tonight, and we could see more value open up tonight if we get some more players ruled out before lock.

Jalen Brunson (3800)

Dennis Smith Jr. is doubtful which means we should see his minutes split up between J.J. Barea and the rookie Brunson. Coach Carlisle likes keeping Barea with the second unit and tends to cap him around 20-25 minutes, so we could see Brunson play 25-30 minutes as the starter here tonight in a good matchup against D.J. Augustin and Orlando.

Monte Morris (4800)

Morris is playing well off the bench for the Nuggets in his sixth man role and we could possibly see him inserted into the starting lineup if Jamal Murray misses tonight’s game. Either way, he’s locked into 25+ minutes of playing time as the Nuggets are also missing Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, and Will Barton.

Josh Hart (4500)

Hart finally broke out with a big performance on Saturday with 38 FD points in 35 minutes. He’s started two games in a row with Brandon Ingram on the shelf and has a solid matchup against Miami tonight as they struggle against shooting guards. He’s too talented to be playing that many minutes at this price.

James Johnson (4300)

Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo will likely be popular plays with Hassan Whiteside out against tonight, but Johnson picked up 29 minutes of playing time on Saturday and turned in a vintage 18-8-3 performance that was good for 37 FD points. He’s the cheapest of the value Heat big men and he’s certainly capable of paying off this price tag with 20+ minutes of run tonight.

Richaun Holmes (4500)

Holmes has carved out a solid 18-22 minute role off the bench and he’s been really productive in his limited court time, averaging right around a fantasy point per minute.  He could end up with a start if DeAndre Ayton misses tonight (questionable with illness) and had one of his best games this season (34 FD points in 17 minutes) against the Clippers a few weeks back.

Daniel Theis (4400)

Theis had the game of his life against Chicago this weekend, putting up 56 FD points against the Bulls at min-price. He’s only in play here for me if both Horford and Baynes were to sit out tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

New Orleans (+7) @ Boston (230 total)

I love this game tonight, it’s my favorite one on the slate. And that’s saying something because I really like the Detroit-Philadelphia game, too.  Boston is scoring the basketball at will and getting contributions from their role players in addition to their star, Kyrie Irving. New Orleans presents a tough matchup for the Celtics as their strength is their big men (Davis and Randle) and Boston struggles with athletic bigs.

This game should be played at a fast pace and I think we see the Celtics play up to the tempo that the Pelicans like to play at instead of trying to slow it down. The first matchup between these teams ended up 124-107 and all the players I’m interested in here tonight hit value in that game.

For the Pelicans, it’s a three-man show right now with Jrue Holiday (9100), Anthony Davis (12400) and Julius Randle. I don’t mind Holiday if you’re stacking this game as he has shown 50+ point potential this season, but I’m not sure I’m willing to pay up for Anthony Davis. I’m more likely to play Holiday and Randle, or just go with Randle as the lone Pelican play.

On the Boston side, Kyrie Irving is the obvious choice to run it back with. However, I also have interest in Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris (5500 – especially if one of the big men sit), and Gordon Hayward (6100) – who’s only exploded once this season (56 FD points against Minnesota) but certainly has the capability of doing so, especially in this matchup.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

I’m adding a new feature here to the breakdown. I’m going to give you my three favorite plays that I’m going to be building around in addition to the sample lineup. This is my core, meaning most of my lineups will start with these players and they are the plays that I feel have the best chance to help win some tournaments tonight.

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***Today’s Core***

Draymond Green (6700)

Joel Embiid (10400)

Collin Sexton (5300)

***Starting your lineups with these three players will leave you with 6200 per player for your final six roster spots.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s what I am starting with this morning. Note that my core plays are also in the sample lineup.

PG: Collin Sexton (5300)

PG: Jalen Brunson (3800)

SG: Josh Hart (4500)

SG: Klay Thompson (6800)

SF: LeBron James (11100)

SF: Juan Hernangomez (5700)

PF: Marcus Morris (5500)

PF: Draymond Green (6700)

C: Joel Embiid (10400)

That’s it, that’s all I got for you today, gang. I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  Keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!