DFS NBA Game by Game Breakdown – December 11

After a crazy 11 game DFS NBA slate on Monday, Tuesday greets us with a small three game Fantasy Basketball slate but there’s still plenty of plays to be had!

The Monday DFS NBA slate was one of the nuttiest so far this year between players who were inactive and players who left in the middle of the game. If you’re a player that takes some nights off, maybe this is the night for you. If you’re a degenerate like me and plays no matter what, we have the content you’re looking for. Let’s go to work!

DFS NBA Picks – Blazers at Rockets

Pace Ranks – Blazers at 18th, Rockets at 29th

Blazers Breakdown 

As is usually the case, we kick off the Blazers with Damian Lillard. I will say there’s a little bit of hesitation here as he will draw Chris Paul defense. That’s still an issue to contend with and in 19 career games, Paul has held Lillard to an average of under 20 points. Paul’s defensive rating has slipped just a bit this season and Lillard has been running the ship so he’s still in play on a short slate. Lillard is shooting within five feet or a three pointer almost 65 percent of the time. He’s also 10th in the league in drives per game so he can take advantage of the Rockets third highest field goal percentage given up within five feet. As far as studs go on this slate, Lillard is right up there as one of the better options.

That same weakness can be exploited by Jusuf Nurkic, who has taken the majority of his field goals from with five feet as well. What’s interesting is he and Clint Capela are back to back in the top 15  in rebounding chances per game so it presents a nice battle down low. I haven’t played C.J. McCollum too often since he’s on the court with Lillard almost exclusively and it’s a bummer that hasn’t really changed all season. The only other Blazer I have interest in is Evan Turner but he doesn’t have the best upside for GPP.

Personal Plays – Lillard, Turner, Nurkic

Players to Consider – McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu

Rockets Breakdown 

James Harden is once again blowing people away in the usage department, climbing towards 40 percent. He’s not someone I’ve been playing a lot of but he will also be in the running for the stud to pay up for tonight just by default. The one thing that sticks out when looking at the Blazers defense is the fact they’re allowing the fourth highest field goal percentage from beyond the arc. The Rockets are attempting the most in basketball, which will be a with for the Blazers to defend. Despite allowing teams a high percentage, Portland faces the sixth fewest attempts from that range all year. Harden is over 11 three pointers a game himself, so Portland is bound to be tested.

The battle down low is probably not something I will use a lot of because Clint Capela draws a tough matchup with Nurkic. Portland has been tough on center all season and there’s not much for Capela to attack. If either player got the other into foul trouble, that’s likely a different story. I think Paul could actually be in play here as the game should be close and I would assume he’ll be wanted to limit Lillard as much as he can. CP3 hasn’t been as good as he was last year but the price continues to beckon.

Personal Plays – Harden

Players to Consider – Paul, Capela, P.J. Tucker

DFS NBA Picks – Suns at Spurs

Pace Ranks – Suns at 20th, Spurs at 23rd

Suns Breakdown 

You know what would be nice? If this game were on a bigger slate so we could basically skip this side of it and move on. Unfortunately, it’s not wise to dismiss a team when the options are naturally limited so we have to discuss them. Phoenix is on a back to back which normally at least gets my attention, but I’m not sure there’s much to worry about. T.J. Warren was supposed to be on a minutes limit yesterday but got ejected in the second quarter. We’ll see if the limit carries over into tonight.  Josh Jackson is highly volatile but will carry a significant chunk of the offense with his 29 percent usage without Devin Booker. The Spurs haven’t been great against forwards so far either, so if using Suns this is likely the way to go. Deandre Ayton is on the radar and played well yesterday, but the Spurs have allowed the seventh fewest real life points to centers so far. That would limit his upside on paper.

Personal Plays – Jackson, Warren

Players to Consider – Ayton

Spurs Breakdown 

If the game stays competitive, it’s hard to imagine DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge not having monster games. The Suns have absolutely nobody that can defend either player, especially Aldridge down low. Aldridge sees a little over 17 rebound chances a game and the Suns are dead last in rebounding percentage. Aldridge is also in the top 15 in paint touches per game so he’s going to be a monster down low considering the Suns have given up the second most points to centers this year.

Speaking of that, Jakob Poeltl is interesting in this game. He’s stated to produce a little bit in mostly limited minutes but if this game gets out of hand, he might see 20-22 instead of his normal allotment. Even if it stays close, Poeltl can hit 6x on his price given the matchup. DeRozan and Rudy Gay are fine plays in their own right, you just have to decide if you think they see the normal minutes.

Personal Plays – Aldridge, Poeltl

Players to Consider – DeRozan, Gay

DFS NBA Picks – Raptors at Clippers

Pace Ranks – Raptors at 16th, Clippers at 9th

Raptors Breakdown 

This is a nice pace up spot for the Raptors and I would imagine most folks are going to stack this game much more than the other two. The one player on Toronto that has to worry you a bit is Kyle Lowry. His shooting has been dismal lately, going a combined 7-42 from the field the past five games. Maybe it’s due to turnaround but his assist rate isn’t that good that you can ignore the poor shooting.

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Kawhi Leonard has hit the 20 point mark six straight games and has three 30 point efforts mixed in. He feels extremely safe and the ceiling is 60 DK points in a fast paced game. I would think Serge Ibaka gets the start in this spot considering the Clippers lack any true centers other than Marcin Gortat. Even then, he only sees 18 minutes a night so Ibaka should should see the lion’s share of the minutes. Pascal Siakam always sees minutes and is a nice play tonight given the spot. I can’t argue with a nice Toronto stack this evening at all.

Personal Plays – Leonard, Siakam, Ibaka

Players to Consider – Jonas Valanciunas, Lowry

Clippers Breakdown 

The Clippers are on a back to back and that definitely is worth noting but like the other not-so-attractive spots, we can’t just pass on the Clippers. I think with the Clips, you might be best served to stick with the safe guys. Tobias Harris always gets plenty of minutes and shows up basically every night. The individual matchup isn’t exactly great but it’s also not the scariest spot either. I actually might lean towards Lou Williams being my favorite play if he’s active since he runs the second unit. The few minutes away from some of the starters for the Raptors could make all the difference but with leaving last night with a hamstring injury, he’s questionable for sure. He has a 32 percent usage since he’s running the second unit and that always is attractive.

Boban Marjanovic drew a start last night but I don’t think that makes sense tonight. You usually don’t have to twist my arm to play Montrezl Harrell but the price is still right at the ceiling. The Raptors could easily counter with Ibaka and give Boban fits. Toronto is in the top 10 in points allowed so the Clippers aren’t the best option for a ceiling in my opinion.

Personal Plays – Williams, Harris

Players to Consider – Danilo Gallinari, Harrell

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all of your DFS needs, and all of the season long advice you need for your fantasy football playoffs!